In yesterday’s post, I wrote about how, despite Trump’s bluster and boasts, the US is flailing in its war with Iran, lumbering about like a giant lummox, facing an adversary that is far nimbler than they anticipated, that is able to duck and weave and land counterpunches even as the US is running out of steam with the steady depletion of its offensive and defensive weaponry.
It seems like Iran is adopting the equivalent of the boxing strategy known as ‘rope-a-dope‘, made famous by Muhammad Ali in his fight with George Foreman in 1974. This is the argument made by Jack A. Goldstone, professor of public policy at George Mason University in this article where he compares Ali’s and Iran’s strategies.
Fifty years ago, an aging Muhammad Ali fought a title bout against a younger, stronger, more dangerous and undefeated opponent, George Foreman. Few thought Ali had a chance. Yet he had a strategy that would allow him to knock out Foreman and reclaim the world heavyweight title.
Ali knew that Foreman, a feared heavy puncher, would furiously throw blow after blow. But he also knew that if he could deflect those attacks to absorb less of their force, Foreman would tire himself out, leaving openings for Ali’s sharp jabs and counterpunches. Ali called this his “rope-a-dope” strategy. After leaning against the ropes for seven rounds, seemingly taking Foreman’s fierce blows but mostly avoiding them, Ali sprang into action to stagger and knock out the exhausted Foreman, giving Ali the victory.
The clerical regime that now runs Iran came to power five years after that prizefight. Yet it seems they studied Ali’s strategy in planning for what they saw as an inevitable U.S. attack. Iran’s leaders realized that if they could withstand the aerial bombardments that Israel and the U.S. would undoubtedly inflict on them and launch counterstrikes at critical nodes and chokepoints of the global economy, even the world’s greatest superpower would be vulnerable.
Having seen Donald Trump tear up the multilateral nuclear deal reached with Tehran during his first term, then bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities in the midst of negotiations last year—and knowing Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu was pushing Trump to join a new attack—Iran’s leaders had no illusions about their opponents. They considered it highly likely that another, larger U.S.-Israeli attack would come soon.
So, they prepared accordingly. Anticipating a decapitation campaign targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top military commanders, they put out orders to the armed forces and the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that could be followed on a decentralized basis by local units. They thus ensured that the Islamic Republic could carry on and initiate countermeasures.
Those countermeasures were four-fold. First, the paramilitary forces known as the Basij would maintain internal order and head off any protests. Second, the government would unleash barrages of low-cost missiles and drones targeting Israel as well as U.S. bases and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states, forcing them all to draw down their stocks of interceptors. Meanwhile, Iran kept in reserve its larger missiles and thousands of drones to use in follow-up attacks on critical targets—shipping, oil refineries and desalination plants—should their adversaries escalate further. Third, Iran virtually closed off oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by using mines, shore-based cruise missiles and mobile artillery—all of which could be used even if much of Iran’s own navy and aircraft were put out of commission. Fourth, Iran counted on U.S. and Israeli mistakes, such as bombing a girls’ school and destroying religious and UNESCO heritage sites valued by all Iranians, to shore up domestic support and unite elite factions against the foreign enemies.
…Moreover, it is Iran’s attacks that have reshaped the region. An objective analysis shows, unexpectedly, that in implementing its carefully laid plans and achieving its objectives, Iran is winning this war. By contrast, the U.S. now appears to have only bad options at its disposal, with no idea what to do next, and having achieved none of its strategic goals. It can continue bombing, but the question now is what will it bomb? If it attacks Iran’s oil production facilities, Iran will attack those of its neighbors, creating a truly catastrophic oil shock that could crash the global economy, creating more economic pain than the leaders of any democracy can bear. If it attacks civilian targets in Iran, as Russia has done in Ukraine, the result will likely be the same—no strategic gains, hardened Iranian resolve to resist and unacceptable costs.
Goldstone wrote this back in March but subsequent events, especially the most recent ones, provide even more support to his thesis.
Trump is in a major bind. He will, however, continue to lie and bluster about how well his war is going because that is what he does, denying reality every step of the way.
There isn’t anything novel about this analysis. The US military has known this would be Iran’s strategy for at least the past 2 decades.
They have spent that time working out strategy and gear. Iran has spearheaded drone technology to give them a good cheap weapon for targeting ships in the area. Drone’s good enough that the US, Russian and Ukraine have all copied Iran’s basic design. Their bases are littered with deeply dug bunkers, both real and fake. The important gear is moved between bunkers at random. This is just to force the US to waste missiles and bombs.
This is what makes Trump’s war so abjectly stupid. All of this information was well known before hand but Trump didn’t get it or ignored it.
I would only quibble with Golddstone’s dating of Iran preparing for a war after Trump tore up the JCPOA. Iran read the tea leaves correctly after the UN invasion of Iraq and has been very deliberately preparing for war with the USA/Israel for roughly 25 years. The USA had been attacking Iran one way or another, usually by proxies since the Islamic Revolution but it looks like the invasion of Iraq really set off the alarm bells.
Iran has moved most or all of its military production and missile bases deep underground— they do not call them missile cities for nothing— and has spent years hammering out strategy and tactics. They have been, more or less prepared for this war for years. The USA seems to have roughed out an attack plan on the back of a napkin during a working lunch–since Trump does not drink I am assuming it was not a “three martini” lunch but it might have well have been..
jrkrideau @ 2
The estimable Hegseth might not have been on the up and up about his promise of staying away from booze. And it was not even a good-quality napkin, just a bit of paper torn off a roll. I assume the State Department provided one of those AI-generated maps where the countries are mislabeled, or upside down. Then they obviously discussed their plans on non-secure phones because, opsec.
… what they saw as an inevitable U.S. attack.
Imagine the prayers of gratitude for having been gifted this particular president and SecDef when the expected occurred.
@4 Pierce R. Butler:
It’s a double edged sword for Iran.
Trump is erratic and incompetent but also hates to back down and expects other countries to just accept US terms. He doesn’t understand how to negotiate complex deals or how to work his way out of a situation.
This stalling tactic has a good chance of winning the war for Iran eventually but if the US continues to the war there is going to be more destruction in Iran and a bunch of dead leaders. This is probably why the leadership has always been willing to negotiate as long as the US was reasonable. The leaders of the war might get glorious mention in the history books and religious texts later but many would be dead.
I do so agree that Iran’s strategy has been well and thoroughly planned, possibly for decades. And so, why would they not continue the strategy that has had them winning the war, from the very first? The US/Israel has not scored one “victory” or objective that I know of.
Yes, Trump will stall and will inflict more destruction. Iran is betting that they can bring about the “truly catastrophic oil shock that could crash the global economy, creating more economic pain than the leaders of any democracy can bear” soon enough for them to be able to bear the destruction in their own country. Then, forced negotiations may ensure.
Also, the midterms might change something in congress where they’d have to power to force some letting-up onto Trump.
I do admire (as a strategy only!) the attacks on facilities in other Middle Eastern states. This serves a larger purpose: it forces those countries to be involved. All of them wanted sit back and not lift a finger in a war between Iran/US/Israel. All they wanted is business as usual.
But, bombing their facilities, paradoxically, can bring them into the war on Iran’s side. They want it to end, now, and they won’t be joining any negotiations on the side of US/Israel. If forced by enough attacks to take seats at the negotiation table, they will force through some sort of compromise that means that Iran will get a lot of what it wants.
Of course, Trump will not negotiate (no one in his admin knows how) and, as we have seen, anything that’s agreed on will be shredded by the next day. But, if this was a normal government (which, actually, would not have even started the war!), the strategy of forcing all Middle Eastern countries to join Iran’s side in ending it would be a good one.
Anyway, I don’t see Iran’s strategies becoming any less successful than they’ve been from the very beginning.
It is obvious that The Orange Turd is a complete idiot, a fucking moron, a racist, and totally incompetent as a negotiator. If he wasn’t all four, he would have recognized that the deal the Obama administration shepherded into being was an absolute miracle. His abandonment of the deal was the single biggest mistake of US foreign policy that has been made in the last 20 years, other than the idiot attacking Iran at Netanyahu’s request. Incompetence is TOT’s signature and his lasting legacy. Unfortunately, the US will be dragged down because of him. It will take generations for the US to recover, if it ever does.
Just in: For the first time in many years, a Republican senator dared to get into a shouting match with Trump. It was at a Republican senate luncheon where Trupolini was the guest of honor.
The senator was one of the four that has decided to vote with the Dems to curb Trump’s war in Iran (after he lost the primary to a Trump-endorsed candidate in Louisiana).
But it is depressing that no Republican shows any integrity until after they have nothing to lose.
JM @ # 5: … a bunch of dead leaders.
Good points, though at least partly offset by, e.g., the elder Khamenei having feared above all dying a quiet, natural death. The idealization of martyrdom changes that calculus in ways few Westerners understand, least of all those striving to grant it.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s appeal to crowdsource war strategy has probably produced less prayer and more laughter (however grim) in Tehran than anything since the release of US hostages on Reagan’s inauguration day.