If you follow most mainstream US news reports about the war with Iran, and especially the statements by Trump, Pete Hegseth, and defense department officials, you will hear mainly about how the US is pummeling Iran with its missiles and little about how Iran is responding. The impression given is that Iran has had its offensive and defensive capabilities destroyed, leaving the US able to operate with impunity in the region and is unscathed except for some minor losses.

So one can be excused for being surprised that Iran has not unconditionally sued for peace or outright surrendered. Further puzzling, given Trump’s claim that the US is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, is the report yesterday of Iran hitting tankers that were trying to break the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz under a US aerial escort.

Iran has said it struck two tankers trying to pass through the strait of Hormuz under the escort of the US military as Donald Trump gathered his cabinet to discuss the stalling war and rising prices as midterm elections in the US loom.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that the “non-compliant oil tankers … were struck and brought to a halt, while four other oil tankers quickly changed course and returned to their previous positions”. The military body said the ships had tried to pass through the strait via an “undeclared route” and under US aerial escort.

Iran and the US have said ships should pass through the strait via two competing routes, with Iran bombing ships that take the southern route, close to the coast of Oman, and the US bombing ships that violate its blockade of Iranian ships and ports.
…

Trump has tried to open the strait of Hormuz by force, but increasingly intense US strikes on Iran have yielded few results.

A report from The Intercept says that while Iran has undoubtedly been badly affected by the bombing of its military and civilian sites, they are by no means incapable of responding and have launched repeated attacks on US bases in the region but the US military is hiding the level of casualties. The latest attack was on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.

The attacks are continued demonstrations of Iran’s ability to target U.S. bases across the Middle East and kill U.S. troops, despite months of claims by President Donald Trump and self-styled War Secretary Pete Hegseth that Iran’s military was annihilated. As this fiction has collapsed, U.S. Central Command has refused to discuss the number and scale of the strikes. “I have nothing for you on that,” Maj. Emma Thompson, the command’s media operations chief, told The Intercept.

Iran has attacked at least nine U.S. outposts across the Middle East since July 9, according to a U.S. official who spoke to The Intercept on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the press. Several of these bases suffered “significant” damage in the attacks, the source said.

Iran’s military managed to overwhelm U.S. air defense systems using a mix of attack drones and advanced ballistic missiles, according to the official. Numerous factors make the missiles difficult to defeat, the source said: They travel at hypersonic speeds, have complex navigational capabilities including methods to circumvent jamming, and some can be guided or steered.

Adding to the US’s problems is that its own stocks of offensive and defensive hardware have been seriously depleted.

Stocks of advanced air-defense missiles, like Patriot and THAAD interceptors, are so depleted that U.S. forces are not shooting down all Iranian missiles and drones aimed at U.S. and allied targets across the Middle East, the official said, referencing a Friday report by NBC News that revealed the tactic. The official told The Intercept that the U.S. allows missiles through its defenses only in cases where a strike is judged not to imperil U.S. lives.

The U.S. and its allies burned through more than 11,000 munitions, including large amounts of defensive missiles, in the first 16 days of the war alone, according to a March analysis by the Royal United Services Institute. The report predicted then that U.S. forces were about a month away from running out of THAAD interceptors. An April report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that “diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk.” A follow-up report the next month warned that it would “take three or more years from today to return to prewar inventory levels” of Patriot and THAAD missiles.

Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson, said that “Patriot systems have been weakened to such an extent that Iranian missiles and drones are reaching their targets without being intercepted.” He said that during a flurry of attacks from July 8 to July 22, Iran struck numerous air defense and radar installations, including six “Patriot air-defense radars.”

CENTCOM did not reply to a request for comment on the claims by the U.S. official or Mohebbi.

The official confirmed that Iran also recently attacked Tower 22, a U.S. military outpost on the northern Jordanian border with Syria. Satellite images as well as photos and videos circulating online indicate the base suffered extensive damage. (In 2024, a drone attack on Tower 22 by an Iran-backed militia killed three U.S. troops.) 

Iran says it also attacked U.S. military facilities at Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base, King Faisal Air Base, and Al-Azraq Air Base; Kuwait’s Al-Adiri base, Ahmed Al-Jaber Air Base, Camp Doha, Ali Al Salem Air Base, and Camp Arifjan; Naval Support Activity Sheikh Isa in Bahrain; and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Then today comes news that Trump has called off his new threatened strikes on Iran, once again claiming that Iran has requested thee halt.

Donald Trump has said he cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of “rapidly” reaching a deal on its nuclear programme and the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

The US president paused the strikes in expectation of a breakthrough and in response to requests from Iran and other countries in the region, he claimed on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”

The deal would include the immediate and complete reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”, he posted. It marked the latest climbdown from extravagant threats to pound the Islamic Republic in the months-long conflict.

Iran has quickly denied making any such request.

However, hopes of a breakthrough faded on Sunday when Iran’s Mehr news agency said Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a pause “was nothing but a new lie” and that the Iranian armed forces were “on high alert and ready for any eventuality”.

Another Iranian news agency, Fars, citing a source close to Iranian negotiators, said that as long as the US “maintains its hostile actions” the strait would remain closed.

The fact that Trump announced the halt after a hastily scheduled cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday suggests that Trump is very likely lying again and that the real reason for the halt is the depletion of US weapons.

The Intercept report also adds that Russia and China, while not directly engaged in the war, are providing some assistance to Iran.

CIA sites in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere in the region were reportedly struck, possibly with Russian assistance, according to Reuters. A former Pentagon consultant with ties to the defense industry told The Intercept that Russia has certainly provided “targeting support” to Iran during the conflict but did not comment directly on attacks on CIA facilities.

Despite Trump’s insistence that Russia and China are “not participating” in the Iran war, Hegseth recently said both are “enabling some of the things Iran is doing.” In March, CIA Director John Ratcliffe told senators that the “Iranians are requesting intelligence assistance from Russia, from China and from other adversaries of the United States,” but said he would only talk about what they might have provided in a classified setting.

Trump’s on-again, off-again comments about ceasefires and talks could well be because he is desperate to find a way to end this war because of reduced offensive and defensive capabilities that have resulted in much higher casualties than have been reported by the Pentagon, and could get even higher. Rather that being desperate to end the war, It is ran seems to be acting as if they have the upper hand and that it is Trump who is in the position of being a supplicant for a cessation of hostilities .

Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Qatar said they intercepted attack drones on Monday, two days after the United States abruptly suspended a two-week campaign of airstrikes against Iran amid concern over the dwindling stocks of air defense missiles and a reported dearth of Iranian targets. Trump insisted on Tuesday that there had been some “very good talks” with Iran but failed to offer evidence when confronted with Iranian denials.

Hundreds of U.S. personnel have been killed or wounded in the war. Months of reporting by The Intercept found the Pentagon’s official casualty tally is a gross undercount, which another U.S. government official called a “casualty cover-up.”

We should not be surprised that the big winners of the war so far have been the oil companies that are making money hand over fist due to the high prices they are able to command.