No good comes of war, and now the Ukraine war is expanding to the south. Ukrainians blew up a significant transport route between Russia and Crimea.
A giant explosion ripped across the Crimean Bridge, a strategic link between mainland Russia and Crimea, in what appeared to be a stunning blow early Saturday morning to a symbol of President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to control Ukraine.
The damage to the bridge, which provided a road and rail connection from Russia to the Ukrainian peninsula the Kremlin illegally annexed in 2014, marks another serious setback to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine by disrupting a crucial supply route.
I had to look up the Kerch Bridge to see where it was.
The moment of explosion on Kerch bridge. pic.twitter.com/u3B9GX2Sou
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 8, 2022
No matter how this war ends up, Putin has to regret having picked a fight there. That’s a lesson for every country — no matter how big and tough you are, and how confident you are in attacking a smaller country, you might end up paying a greater cost than you expected. We should have figured that out in Vietnam (I doubt that we did), and Putin’s imperial ambitions are getting a serious reality check.
Looks like a suicide bomb. I guess the Ukrainians are going in for the kill.
I don’t know about that. The primary explosion was on rail freight crossing the bridge.
2.) Sorry. It looked like a it was caused by a tanker truck. Rewatching it, and looks like you’re right
Yeah, we didn’t do so well invading Iraq either. Those pesky locals. De-baathication coupled with imprisoning insurgents alongside the former Baathist military muckety mucks were not genius moves. ISIS in the nascent ascendancy. We midwifed them.
Zbig knew Afghanistan would be a quagmire for the Soviets. Putin should have taken heart per Ukraine quagmire as he goes the way of Gorbachev, though the latter didn’t need to worry about staying on the ground floor away from windows in his post Soviet life.
Gorbie had Gore Vidal. What does Putin have? Steven Seagal? Keep him please.
The exact cause and even who did it has yet to be determined.
The Russians say it was a truck bomb that managed to catch a passing train with fuel tanks on fire. That is either a coincidence or amazing timing.
Analysts say it doesn’t look like an aerial attack by drone or missile because there is no blast damage to the road surfaces.
This bridge is 11 miles long and only a few sections are affected.
It is repairable but it won’t be very fast. A few months at the least.
The rail section is probably going to be the easiest to repair.
No, the initial explosion occurred near seaward side of the road bridge, far from the rail bridge. The fuel-laden train caught fire shortly after that initial explosion. Whether the train was there by coincidence; or the attack (presuming it was an attack) was timed to “greet” the train; or, as a few vague hints have suggested, the train was stopped (possible signals sabotage?) is unclear.
Whilst Putin’s propagandists claim it was a truck which initially exploded, that initial explosion very possibly occurred underneath the road bridge, and at least one video shows what may be the leading wave and bow of a boat essentially exactly at the time and apparent location of the initial explosion. That same video also shows a truck over / at the point of the initial explosion, which is perhaps one reason the propagandists claim “truck bomb”.
Ukraine — assuming it was an attack by them — is known to have US-supplied naval drones (USVs, or Unmanned Surface Vessels), and as Forbes pointed out back in May (Ukraine Threatens Russia’s Vital Bridge To Crimea (UPDATED: Bridge Downed)), the Houthi have been using speedboats converted to robotic operations since at least 2017 — “‘If the Houthis can do it, why not Ukraine?’ asks [Research Affiliate at the Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Zak] Kallenborn.”
The neat breaks in the road bridge are very reminiscent of the Bay Bridge after the 1989 earthquake, which caused the supporting tower(s?) to shift slightly, bringing down a section of the roadway. Apparently, the Kerch bridge — besides being illegally built — was also built in an area of poor geological conditions, and very probably poorly-built (Newsweek, Putin’s Bridge to Crimea Is Doomed to Collapse, January 2017)
See the youtube video “10 reasons why Ukraine hasn’t destroyed the Crimean Bridge” very interesting analysis
Reports are now coming in that it was not a suicide bomb. Experts are saying the explosion came from below and military high explosives. Not suicide bomb material. Possibly naval drone or special forces demolition.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/8/2127700/-Ukraine-update-Destruction-of-Kerch-Bridge-connecting-Russia-and-Crimea-sends-war-to-new-phase?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main
Putin should have learned the lesson in Afghanistan. Afghanistan was an even smaller and poorer country, but Russia/USSR couldn’t really win there.
The Russian colonists in Crimea are going to be trying to figure out how to get back to safety, now – especially after the way the Russian army stumbled. I think we should assume it’s not an accident, especially since it happened on Putin’s birthday. It looks like a truck-bomb with a message and the message is “happy birthday, and after we throw Russia out of the territory it took, we are taking Crimea back too.” Putin must be incandescent with rage.
The problem is the Russian military hawks are starting trouble. They’re complaining that Putin is mishandling the war and targeting his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. If the hawks get their way, then the war could get a lot worse.
This is what the Russians are saying right now.
I doubt the Russians can repair this rail bridge in 5 hours.
It should be more like 5 weeks.
AFAICT, the rail bridge is mostly steel on top of concrete pillars. There was a long hot fire from burning petroleum fuel cars. That should wreck the steel similar to how the jet fuel wrecked the steel supports of the World Trade Center in NYC. How did that end anyway?
I can’t see how that section of track can take any sort of heavy load until it gets torn out and replaced.
That map makes me think, “wow, must have been a big bomb for that bridge to be in all those locations now.”
Welp, this is getting hotter and hotter. Unless the Putidiot does like the Finnish prime minister said (get out of there prontito) this can only escalate, and not in a good way. Really, his minions are quite spine- and worthless, had he been a Roman emperor he would be a pincushion by now.
Aaaand after that fire and collapse, you would not catch me travelling on that bridge no way no how, especially with the Russian technical standards being exposed as being a tad on the sloppy side.
@11. robro : Isn’t it obvous to them that the Russians are losing and cannot win and that removing Putin and scapegoating him is their best bet for survival and having any sort of decent future? That dragging the war out is only going to do them ever more damage and pain for no gains and actually using WMDs would be the end of Russia and is “unthinkable” – or at least would be utterly catastrophic for them and their families and nation?
Is there no chance of an anti-war coup that ends this either de facto* or even de jure** and faces the reality that Putin made a fatal self-destructive mistake in a lot more ways than one?
. * I.e. we’re not officially surrendering but we’re calling a halt and pulling out indefinitely a la Korean war “finish” or Chinese Civil War for that matter..
.** We lost & it was Putin’s fault but he’s gone now & we’ll take our penalties to get it over with in order to rejoin the world community economically and diplomatically and rebuild from here. Best case scenario? .
Apparently, last month (September), Putin’s invaders in Crimea found a possibly explosives-laden naval drone washed-up near Sevastopol. Some snippets from Forbes, Russia Finds Mystery Vessel On Crimean Beach: Is It A New Ukrainian Attack Drone? (there is an image at the link):
As far as I am aware, that drone hasn’t been positively identified and might not have been Ukrainian, but it is suggestive.
#13 @timmyson
LOL !! Good one!!
StevoR @ #15 — Is it possible? Sure, lots of things are possible. Probably? I’m not too confident.
@9 Robro
“Putin should have learned the lesson in Afghanistan. Afghanistan was an even smaller and poorer country, but Russia/USSR couldn’t really win there.”
Couple of big differences are that (a) Afghanistan is mountainous and Ukraine is fairly flat and (b) culturally Ukraine is much closer to Russia. The latter may have caused Putin and others in Russia to really believe a large proportion of people in Ukraine would welcome Russia; instead more ties have been cut. Notably Metropolitan Onufriy head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) which was subordinate to the head of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has notably criticized Russia and moved to separate from the ROC. This is something the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) had done several years before and had been recognized as autonomous several years ago by the Patriarch of the Eastern Orthodox Church (something which has divided Orthodoxy).
The BBC has some good coverage of the bridge. According to them, both “light” road traffic and rail traffic have resumed. Authorities in Crimea have started a ferry service for heavy vehicles.
That last suggests–to me–that they are creating new targets that are “softer” than the bridge.
This tweet says something is happening in Moscow.
One part of the Russian military is arresting officers of another part. Or something.
Twitter, who knows how accurate this is?
The source is reliable though, Anton Gerashchenko is a high Ukrainian government official.
(Re-constructed cross-post from poopyhead’s current Infinite Thread XXIV, in reply to the weird twittering in raven@21.)
No-one else is known to me to be reporting any such thing. For example, Leonid ХВ Ragozin (freelancer for the BBC):
I’m uncertain I agree with his speculated reason for this apparent error by Ukraine; it could be, e.g., an attempt at pot-stirring in Russia. (Other reasons are also possible.) And Ukraine seems to fairly well disciplined in avoiding the more absurd or easily-checked unevidenced claims.
I like the idea of a drone much better then a truck bomb. It matches the sophistication of Ukraine and how they have used the tech-sector so far. that bridge has been a target for a long time. I doubt that the tanker train being there at the time was a lucky accident.
the question I have is were was the operator or was preprogrammed with GPS and then detonated with a signal from a cell phone or computer using starlink.
The Soviet Union and the USA should both have figured that out in Afghanistan.
A drone attack seems most likely, based on what I’ve read, but it’s interesting that Ukraine is not publicly claiming responsibility for the explosion. I’ve started wondering if it’s simply an accidental explosion due to poor handling of explosives. That happened to the Maine and in some other munitions disasters over the years. Ukraine probably was responsible, given that it’s at war, but I don’t think other possibilities can be ruled out yet.
The source of the blast isn’t visible in that video, but it’s clear from the trajectory of the debris raining down onto the roadway that the detonation comes from underneath the bridge, towards the right edge of the screen.
You only need to destabilize one support pylon on one shore to destabilize the entire span.
Photos have surfaced on Twitter from the underside of the downed spans. No blast damage. Plus a huge scorch mark on the road surface. That seems to indicate a VBIEV.
That it exploded next to the train is probably no accident. That railway (not the road) is Russia’s most important remaining logistics line into Ukraine.
Using a bomb-laden truck to blow up a bridge has been done before, e.g. in Iraq. See Mark Hertling’s Twitter.
Although it is not easy to blow up a bridge that way, a trailer truck can carry a lot of explosives. A 3-axle trailer can carry up to 26 metric tonnes of cargo. For reference, the Grand Slam “earthquake” bombs of WWII contained only 4.3 metric tonnes of Torpex explosive.
That should be VBIED, not VBIEV.
another idea I heard was essentially someone with a russian passport through out an explosive device at the right time. that would be much less complicated an no one needed to commit suicide to accomplish the task though it would be a hazardous undertaking none the less. Probably not that hard to find and identify trucks carrying a cargo that would explode going in to war zone with limited access.
The initial blast comes from below the level of the road, but not directly under the bridge. I’m assuming it’s hitting a support structure?
Then something else on the left side of the road explodes into a fireball. I’m sure it left a large scorch mark, it was white hot in intensity.
The video isn’t clear enough to see if the second fireball is a truck or a train, but anything carrying munitions or flammable liquids is liable to explode when hit by burning shrapnel.
This is the CNN story with photos clearly showing collapsed parts of the bridge and train tank cars on fire above it. Putin opened the bridge in 2018. Even if it’s a minor hitch to the flow of goods, it’s an embarrassing one for Putin.
@20. whheydt : yes link to that BBC report here :
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63183404
Of course, having shown they can hit it once, presumably it can be targeted and hit again and repeatedly..
@ 21. raven & 22. blf : Yes, we need tobe caustious here and wary given things like the recent non-coup in China as Media Watch discussed here :
https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/china/101496284
@18. robro : Yes but its nice to hope and have scenarios that are best case as well as worst case. I don’t know how realistic it is or what can be done to help them happen. I don’t really know enough here. Still.
PS. Jrkrideau has been awfully quiet lately & here – what does our resident Russian apologists make of this I wonder?
PPS. I guess many folks here already know but Darth Putin has some excellent satirical stuff here :
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
On an otherwise horrifically grim invasion.
Afghanistan was an even smaller and poorer country, but Russia/USSR couldn’t really win there.
Actually, the USSR was winning in Afghanistan, until a bunch of other countries (NOT just the USA) began sending weapons and other aid to the locals.
(Also, FWIW, the US would have done a lot better in Afghanistan if we hadn’t just dropped the whole thing and diverted all our time and attention to a whole ‘nother totally useless war in Iraq.)
An article on the BBC today notes that bridges are built to resist downward forces (weight of vehicle traffic) plus some lateral wind resistance. They are NOT designed to resist upward forces.
I should note for completeness that California has engaged in a years long effort to add reinforcement to bridges to resist the various forces exerted on them by earthquakes, so bridges in California might well be able to resist at least moderate upward pressure.
True.
As it was explained to me, the pavement sections are just set onto the support pilings. With some space between them filled with some sort of flexible plastic elastomer.
This is because the pavement sections expand and shrink with heat and cold. If they were too long, the heat and cold would crack them.
The expansion joints sit on the pilings because they are weak spots.
@StevoR
PS. Jrkrideau has been awfully quiet lately
what does our resident Russian apologists make of this I wonder?
It is a little like the Napoleon dictum.
I see no reason to annoy Uki idiots in a non-political forum such as this.
In term of the Kerch Bridge what we have is an obvious security failure on Russia’s part. Russia seems to be bad at this. Just like the US & 9/11.
So far we seem to have a 10 hour interruption to rail traffic and ~ 12 hour interruption to auto traffic. A successful attack if not up to 9/11 standards.
By the way, I am not a “Russian apologist”. I am a full- fledged Russian supporter and have been since the Crimea return to Russia.
Re: jkrideau @ #37…
I suppose that Putin needs some supporters somewhere, what with several hundred thousand Russian young men deciding that crossing the border into some other country–nearly any other country–beats getting conscripted into the Russian army and thrown into combat with little or no training, inadequate equipment, and no logistical support.
Since you support the Russian side are you volunteering to go help them out?
I had to look up the Kerch Bridge to see where it was.
I am sorry but I am going to be really, really rude here.
You did not know where the Kerch Bridge was?
It was a major issue in the Russia–Crimea union. Basically the only link between “main land Russia” and Crimea. An engineering marvel (well in speed not techniques) over ~ 14 or 15km of sea done very fast.
It is a duel-purpose bridge for rail and auto.
I have an interest in various transportation issues but the Kerch Bridge has shown up in various Canadian news reports for, literally, years.
jrkrideau:
Ahem. Russia’s most recent re-invasion of Crimea.
The history is there for anyone who cares to look.
(But hey, Putin just celebrated the annexation of four (4) new provinces.
Forever!)
—
BTW, was it not the most recent occasion prior to this that you commented about how very formidable was the Russian army in its Special Operation?
Seems to me less formidable by the week.
So, wow here’s Russia’s belated mobilisation, and already more people have left Russia than have been mobilised. Great for the economy, surely, this loss of the drafted and the refugees from being actually productive. All gone, and of course it’s brain-drain since it’s those with brains and means who go, not the saps who will become cannon-fodder.
—
So, how are you enjoying this war of invasion so far?
@ 38 whheydt
what with several hundred thousand Russian young men deciding that crossing the border into some other country
Show me the several hundred thousand Russian young men in refugee camps or whatever.
Do you realize just how stupid this is?
jrkrideau:
So, you ostensibly haven’t been following the news.
(Scripts are no good when the actual circumstances belie the script)
—
So you realise just how futile your scripted replies are?
—
Russia will most certainly lose this war of aggression (already fucked-up its economy and reputation), and the very very best it can hope for is some sort of Samson gambit — but it’s them against the world, effectively.
Surely you realise that India and China and Iran and so forth are using the situation, rather than being helpful due to solidarity? Realpolitik, man.
[waiting for the next comment]
jrkrideau @41:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/where-have-russians-been-fleeing-since-mobilisation-began-2022-10-06/
Of course, anything you don’t like to hear can be written off as Western propaganda, right?
@ 40 John Morales
Ahem. Russia’s most recent re-invasion of Crimea.
You mean the one in 1786? I’d call it a conquest, myself.
Not the most veiled language, especially if one knows Kazakhstan also borders countries other than Russia.
No, I don’t mean that particular re-invasion.
I meant what you quoted me as stating, that is, the “most recent re-invasion of Crimea”. 1786 is not that recent.
To anyone not being wilfully obtuse, it should be most obvious that I mean the one of 2014, based upon which Putin imagined he could repeat that hitherto successful application of salami tactics, except this time for the entirety of the country. Hubris, as it’s turned out.
Well, it’s had Crimea since 2014. Kinda conquest-like, no?
I can’t see how Russia can hold on to its conquest, though.
Sanctions are just beginning to bite, Europe has accepted that Russian fuel is a no.
Everyone will suffer from Putin’s grandiose design, but Russia will suffer more.
Already had a demographic bomb pending, this foolishness surely hasn’t helped.
These things matter.
I did see an interesting report today…. Ukraine has captured, in serviceable condition, more Russian armor than has been supplied in Western aid. This doesn’t count the wrecked armor they’ve been piling up out of the way. They’ve also been collecting quite a bit of Russian munitions that have been left behind by fleeing Russian units.
There is now a situation where Ukrainian forces are shooting at fleeing Russians with Russian ammo from Russian tanks.
After this is all over, the wrecks will probably be useful once they get their steel works back in working order. Lots and lots of scrap steel to feed the furnaces. Only used once…
File this one under “lashing out at civilians for damage to a military target”…
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63193124
Putin accused Ukraine of “terrorism” claiming the Kerch Bridge is civilian infrastructure. Ukraine replied that, since the bridge is used to move troops and materiel, it is a legitimate military target. Russia has since been firing at purely civilian targets, such as apartment blocks. So who’s the “terrorist” here?
The Russian colonists in Crimea
Sorry Marcus but are you referring to Catherine II settlers or more recent settlers. ?
FWIW, here’s a short potted history in an easily-digestible format:
History Summarized: Ukraine
jrkrideau:
The “settlers” after the conquest, O “I’d call it a conquest, myself.”
It did not escape my notice that you somehow changed the specific term ‘colonists’ (which you actually quoted) to ‘settlers’.
(Sheesh! Have some pride in your work!)
But anyway, fine. To you, those are synonymous.
They previously were Russians, now have relocated to a conquered territory, and remain Russians.
(This is factual, so the Shakespearean quotation is not irrelevant)
Nice to see jrkrideau finally actually owning up to their open support of genocide.
Regarding ethnic Russians in Ukraine, some interesting poll results;
https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/ukrainians-want-to-stay-and-fight-but-dont-see-russian-people-as-the-enemy-a-remarkable-poll-from-kyiv/
The settlers in Crimea under Katherine II were evicted in 1876, were ethnic Germans, and now their descendants are everywhere. (Though about 70% went to Canada and the USA)
The American branch of my German, Kherson settler ancestors alone currently has over 55,000 descendants. (Hope you’ve enjoyed the HIMARS, etc our taxes provided to Ukraine) We STILL despise Russia from 1876, and Putin has burned the little amount of international goodwill gained since the USSR failed.
@ 11 robro
If the hawks get their way, then the war could get a lot worse.
Yes. It appears that most of the West does not realize Putin is a moderate. The real war party is a lot more aggressive.
@ 49 whheydt
Putin accused Ukraine of “terrorism” claiming the Kerch Bridge is civilian infrastructure.
Yes, rather silly. I supose the type of attack was iffy but the bridge was clearly a legitimate target.
@ 55 John Morales
Thanks for the video link. Bad history is always entertaining though frustrating. . I assume you mean “potted” history as drunken? I am by no means an expert on the history of Novorussia but that video was garbage in about 20 seconds. It reminds me of an historian’s review of the movie, “Braveheart” where she said she had noticed 109 errors but then she was only two minutes in to the film.
@ 55 Tethys
The settlers in Crimea under Katherine II were evicted in 1876, were ethnic Germans,
Do you have “any” evidence for this? Catherine definitely encouraged German settlers in Russia (well,she was German) and probably in Novorussia but I don’t know of any specific settlements in Crimea. I also have never heard of any “eviction”. Leaving (fleeing?) for any number of reasons including racial or religious reasons seems likely but a flat “eviction” is something I had not heard of. I’ll check with a Mennonite historian friend on this.
BTW, Kherson is not in Crimea. For heavens sake, look at a map.
jrkrideau, you are a truly welcome commenter, in my estimation.
Good times! I hardly ever get chew-toys of even your quality.
So…
So, in your by no means expert estimation, it’s garbage in about 20 seconds.
(Had you actually watched it that far, you would have realised it’s still the preamble to the actual content).
Also, and more to the point, it’s not “a history of Novorussia”, but of Ukraine.
(You are welcome to actually demonstrate any factual inaccuracies there, of course.
But then you’d actually have to watch the content, so that’s rather unlikely right there)
So… how many errors did you notice during the preamble to the content?
<snicker>
—
Ah, and I can’t resist:
<snigger>
That’s akin to saying most people do not realise that some particular cat turd is only moderately smelly.
jrkrideau, you are a truly welcome commenter, in my estimation.
Good times! I hardly ever get chew-toys of even your quality.
So…
So, in your by no means expert estimation, it’s garbage in about 20 seconds.
(Had you actually watched it that far, you would have realised it’s still the preamble to the actual content).
Also, and more to the point, it’s not “a history of Novorussia”, but of Ukraine.
(You are welcome to actually demonstrate any factual inaccuracies there, of course.
But then you’d actually have to watch the content, so that’s rather unlikely right there)
So… how many errors did you notice during the preamble to the content?
<snicker>
Ah, and I can’t resist:
<snigger>
That’s akin to saying most people do not realise that some particular cat turd is only moderately smelly. By cat-shit standards, of course.
Kherson, like Crimea, is in Ukraine. As a group they are the Black Sea settlers, as opposed to others in Hungary or the Caucasus region.
I have lists of settlers murdered in Crimea, by Russians. The wiki on my German Ancestors isn’t very detailed, but the exact dates their lands were taken away and they were evicted can be found in histories of the Last Czar.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Germans_in_North_America
Another source on the German settlers under Katherine the Great and a later group (1803) under Alexander.
https://library.ndsu.edu/grhc/research-history/history-germans-russia
FTFY
Has jrkrideau ever explained anywhere at FtB WHY they are “a full-fledged
Russiangenocide” supporter?The admission isn’t too much of a surprise, but the reasoning is, insofaras I know, still opaque, or at most, speculative.
And, ignoring KG@60’s correction (which I quoted above), is it Russia(n) or Putin supporter? The two aren’t precisely the same, and both KG and myself, and others, have expressed annoyance at times with conflating the two.
blf@61,
Good point. An actual Russian supporter would be cheering the Ukranian counter-offensive, as it brings nearer the downfall of Archkleptocrat Putin.
All these years jrkrideau has commented at FtB and I have never suspected that he is a supporter of a fascist regime. The mental gymnastics must be quite impressive to claim one is for social justice whilst cheering for an autocrat who denies a whole nation a right to exist and starts a genocidal war of conquest.
Tankies of old at least you could imagine they were just misguided and thought that Mao and Stalin were actually bringing about a communist utopia by fighting the entrenched bourgeoisie.
Putin makes no such claim. He’s just an unabashed imperialist who wants to rebuild the Russian empire.
@ 59 Tethys
I checked with my Mennonite historian (BTW a Mennonite & historian not a specialist in the area) and I think we agree mainly with your points. I just objected to your actual term “evicted”. I do not see an actual eviction à la Stalin. They definitely left as the Imperial policy on military service changed.
@ 58
“Kherson, like Crimea, is in Ukraine.”
If Atlanta Georgia is in the USA then it must also be in Lousiana?
@ 61 blf
Has jrkrideau ever explained anywhere at FtB WHY they are “a full-fledged Russiangenocide” supporter?
So basically you know nothing about Ukrainian history since before, let’s say, the 1930’s when Stepan Bandera was assassinating Polish Gov’t officials to modern day Ukrainian fascist formations such as the Azov Battalion (or regiment?) or Right Sector / Pravy Sektor.
You also seem to know nothing about the Ukrainian civil war that has been being fought from 2014 to 2022.
We know a lot more about the events of 2014-2022 than someone who takes Putins word for everything that happened.
jrkrideau @65:
Your analogy needs a lot of work. AFAIK, none of those US places were invaded by a foreign country, with bullshit referenda ceding them to said foreign country.
@66:
“Ukrainian civil war”? So, you see that conflict as internal to, and strictly the business of, Ukraine?
@69 He wants to call it that to pretend that the Russians had nothing to do with the conflict, yet still insisting it was Russia’s right to put an end to it.
@ 63 Charly
I have never suspected that he is a supporter of a fascist regime.
I am not. I do not support the Zelensky regime. It has closed down most or all opposition parties and opposition media and charged the leader of the major opposition party (Medvedchuk?) with treason, seems to have assassinated a couple of people who were advocating peace negotiations back in the spring Member of Ukrainian peace negotiation team dead: Report though I would say the sources are not great.
It also has a number of overtly Nazi (not neo-Nazi) National Guard of Ukraine (I may have this name wrong but it is my best guess for today’s date.) serving with the Ukrainian military though if I understand the command structure they do not report directly to the Ministry of Defence.
If you like recent history Congress bans arms to Ukraine militia linked to neo-Nazis
2018 neo-nazi, 2022 heroic defenders. Those leopards changed spot quickly.
This is an incomplete and quite possibly out of date list
Azov Battalion
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2022/02/peter-hitchens-granny-gets-her-gun-from-a-bunch-of-shamelss-neo-nazis-not-that-the-bbc-would-ever-te.html
Right Sector / Pravy Sektor
Volunteer Corps,
Svoboda
Aidar Battalion
Tornado Battalion. May have folded?
Here is what appears to be a “sanitized” wiki entry on the Azov Regiment. Please just ignore the parts about “….its use of controversial symbols linked to Nazism, and early allegations that members of the group participated in torture and war crimes.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment.
BTW you might want to do a search on Myrotvorets, (Ukrainian: Миротворець)
It had Darya Dugina on its hit list.
Odd, since that is what it is called when your landlord cancels your lease (and reneges on the rights you had under that lease) after 72 years of turning wastelands destroyed by Russian wars into fertile farms, thriving productive networks of villages, and self-sufficient economies.
The records for the Taurian colonies (Crimea)have other terms for what Russia did to the Germans who did not leave, such as “destroyed”, and “death”, and “deported to Siberia”.
The German colonists would immigrate and found colonies according to religious affiliation.
Catholics, Lutherans, Hutterites, Anabaptist sects, etc…
There were also Jewish villages, Ukrainian villages, Bulgarian, Moldovan, Tatars, etc..
Kherson oblast had many German Catholic colonies. Lutheran colonies tended to be Scandinavian people. (German Anabaptists despise the hypocrite Martin Luther)
Swabian (look it up) groups of multiple religious sects from the Alsace region were specifically settled in various places in Crimea by Alexander in order to establish a wine growing industry.
If you think it’s Zelensky who is running a fascist regime, you’re beyond reasoning with.
I suppose JKR also blames Zelensky for the number of Russian officials who have fallen out of windows.
Taurida Oblast was established by Katherine the Great in 1784, following the annexation of the Crimean Khanate by Imperial Russia in 1793.
It included Kherson and other parts of southern Ukraine.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurida_Oblast
Obviously 1783, since Katherine was pretty great at yanking Russia out of its backwards medieval stagnation, but she couldn’t time travel.
@ 68 Rob Grigjanis
Your analogy needs a lot of work
No. If you tell me Halifax is in Québec then you need a map.
69 “Ukrainian civil war”? So, you see that conflict as internal to, and strictly the business of, Ukraine?
More or less, in the beginning. Almost immediately after the 2014 Maidan coup, the Kiev government abolished Russian as an official language in the country, including for instruction. Since I used to live in Québec, the responses in the East did not surprise me at all. Hell, even as an Anglophone, I’d have been on the barricades if the Federal Gov’t tried something that stupid.
The deposed Viktor Yanukovych had been the overwhelming choice for president in the Donbass and Crimea and got booted. Not good just as your language rights are being striped away.
Russia, obviously, was fairly quickly supplying a lot of support to the Donbass Republics but I think this was after the Odessa massacre and after both the Donbass & Crimea starting to revolt though I am not sure of the timelines here. There may well have been differences between Crimea and the Donbass.
If Ukraine had lived up to the Minsk Accords in 2015 or so , that might have been the end of it, at least for a couple of decades.
@ 72 Tethys
Well, I do still do not call it a literal “eviction” but I agree in general. . I do not consider it ” cancelling a lease” but as a gross violation of contract or possibly a treaty violation.
The results are the same, I am just hairsplitting on the actual words, we probably assign them slightly different meanings.
The Imperial Gov’t was totally violating the contract that Catherine had signed.
jrkrideau @71: Peter fucking Hitchens? Seriously? The bloke who said (among a lot of nonsense) that the greenhouse effect probably doesn’t exist?
jrkrideau: Azov Battalion: dodgy history. Putin and Kadyrov: demonstrably, consistently fascist.
JRK: This is not like Quebec rebelling to protect its language rights from an Anglo government. This is like the USA occupying Alberta with the help of Albertans who are sick of official bilingualism.
@ 70 NitricAcid
He wants to call it that to pretend that the Russians had nothing to do with the conflict, yet still insisting it was Russia’s right to put an end to it.
Actually due to Putin being a really, really, finical, lawyer type who believes in dotting every “i” and dotting every “t”, Russia likely is justified in intervening under the UN Charter in defending the “new” Russian territories. How far that allows Russia to go, I have no idea.
the Russians had nothing to do with the conflict,
They, almost certainly supplied some support to the Donbass Republics and reportedly accepted two or three million refugees fleeing Kiev attacks.
You do realize that families in Eastern Ukraine (Novorussia, more or less) and Russia proper are often cousins or closer? Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s mother was from Stakhanov, Lugansk Rebublic. He likely has cousins there.
If you are actually trying to kill his cousins, he may not be all that “reasonable”.
I had hoped that someday I could get all the land grants and church records records from my Great-Grandfathers village and fill in some missing names.
They are still held in Moscow over 100 years after the Germans were evicted from their land, and persecuted by asshole occupying Russians.
Same as it ever was.
@ 80 Rob Grigjanis
Azov Battalion: dodgy history.
Dodgy history includes being sanctioned by the US Gov’t as a neo-Nazi group back in 2018.
Putin and Kadyrov: demonstrably, consistently fascist.
Putin is not fascist, per se, but definitely authoritarian. Well, he is a former KGB officer and then city and federal gov’t functionary. How could he not be?
Also some of that authoritarianism may be partly a function of the RF Constitution that the USA wrote for Yeltsin.
Kadyrov ? Definitively dangerous bugger but I am not sure about the labels as we may be dealing with a still semi-clan based Islamic culture that it is difficult to categorize under simple Western labels.
I’m well aware that many Ukrainians have Russian relatives and vice versa. I’m also well aware that the Russian language is pervasive throughout Ukraine, and was never in any danger of being banned or genocided out of Ukraine. Any bookstore in Kyiv, last time I was there, was 80% Russian and 20% other (which included Ukrainian, English, etc.). You want to buy a movie on DVD? Less than half of them had a Ukrainian option- the rest were just in Russian.
@ 83 Tethys
Re Records.
Until this recent, slight, unpleasantness, the Russians have reportedly been being a lot easier about archive access though the last I heard you probably needed a strong academic link and a good reason to show up. If you are not affiliated with a good university, it might be worth checking with a local one and discussing getting access.
On the other hand, are you sure the records are in Moscow? That seems a bit too organized for the sometimes shambolic Russian Empire. You may have to see what Odessa or Meriupol has.
A bit of history: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
(5 December 1994)
—
As for this claim of “civil war”, here is an extract:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Independence)
@86:
You are a vile piece of shit.
War crimes and doublespeak are what Russia does best, much like claiming that canceling land grants and autonomy for the Black Sea Germans as a prelude to persecution, execution, and forced assimilation was not ‘eviction’.
I’m absolutely sure those records are held in Moscow. Previous to the fall of Soviet Russia, they were held in Warsaw. Reportedly they take up a lot of archival space. Getting access required hiring a Russian go- between who could assist with bribing the correct government officials, among other expenses.
I agree with Rob on this point.
[meta]
jrkrideau, I have not forgotten. My reality is not quite as fluid as yours.
https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2022/04/28/once-i-would-have-predicted-that-ukraine-was-going-to-be-crushed/#comment-2132049
Heh. So formidable, it’s been losing its conquered territory ever since, and had to mobilise 7 months into the war.
(Anyone who still tries to deny this is a war is full of it)
—
Can’t remember who (Ben Hodges?) wryly said something like “Russia was considered the second best army in the world at the start of this war, now it’s seen as the second best army in Ukraine”.
Oh, and I feel I should add (I’ve noted this before) that Ukraine is now being forged and tempered in the furnace of war, crystallising its national identity irrevocably.
This will most certainly become part of their national epic, their overcoming of a much larger invader that wanted to erase its national identity.
A truly heroic epic.
Another aspect of Russia’s almost incredible mismanagement of the situation, much like its attempts to divide Europe and restrict NATO; everything is backfiring on Russia.
And, in the process, they’ve fucked Russian economy and its future, in just about every metric imaginable, as well as destroying any credibility and status it once had. Impoverishing those of its people who haven’t fled. Going backwards.
I pity Russia.
jrkrideau@66, Again ducks and distracts. That is, they do not “[explain] WHY they are “a full-fledged [Putin] supporter”, instead doing “what-about…”.
And then adds to their incoherence by asserting (@86), Putin’s illegal invasion of the independent country of Ukraine is a .
Putin’s illegal invaders are targeting civilians. Those illegal invaders have shipped Ukrainians — including children — into Russia, without either their consent or the consent of their parents / guardians. The UN has, repeatedly, condemned Putin’s invasion, by overwhelming majorities. This is not a confusion or disagreement about where some analog of Atlanta is, it is a blatant attempt by Putin to forcibly seize territory in the 21st C without any plausible approval whatsoever.
Yet jrkrideau not only seems to be completely happy and thrilled with this, they have also noticeably not explained (at FtB) WHY they approve.
@jrkrideau, fuck off, you disingenuous piece of vomit. You are cheering for an actual fascist who started an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country, kills his political opponents, and imprisons citizens of his country for calling a war a war. Your Whataboutism is a tired old technique, stuff it where the sun does not shine.
Even IF Zelenskyy was a fascist (he is not) and IF Ukraine was a fascistic state (it is not) it would change nothing about the reality that Putin is a fascistic autocrat and that he started the war, not Ukraine.
You are repeating verbatim Russian propaganda. Why you chose to believe anything that the Russian state says is beyond me, Putin and Russian diplomats are on record lying and contradicting themselves in mere days.You yourself have in the past repeated lies that were contradicted by Putin a few days later, the most egregious lie being “the troops are going back inland from the Ukrainian border, we are not planning any invasion” just a few days before the invasion started.
As I said, fuck off.
English is such a poor language for swearing. Czech is much more colorful.
@37. jrkrideau :
This blog? “Non-political?” LOL! What? No.
Uki idiots = ???
If that was meant as an insult it failed since I don’t know what Uki refers to.. I’m guessing Ukrainian but then the Ukrainians have been far from “idiotic” and have smashed the vastly larger Russian military so.. huh?
Not that obvs and what a horrid, inappropriate analogy. The criminal terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon and the passengers of a hijacked plane that fought back against their terrorisers killed nearly three thousand innocent people. This was a single attack on a bridge during an on-going military conflict that killed three people or so. Huge differences and few similarities that I can see.
Wow.
Thing is jrkrideau that the Ukrainians who destroyed Putin’s bridge here weren’t trying to do anything like 9/11 – that’s more like Putin’s style of committing massive unprovoked war crimes and attacks.
So the most recent takeover of Crimea – a brutal, bullying imperialist military occupation of a smaller nation’s land – convinced you to support Russia because why? What does that say about you?
As others have already noted upthread you aren’t really supporting Russia just Putin’s corrupt and failing brutal, gangster oligarchy.
I really don’t get your motivation here jrkrideau. What is it about Putin and his invasion that attracts you and makes you such a fanboy of that dictator here? I wasn’t expecting that from your past comments here before all this.. You were respected here once. Not currently of course.
Did you ever answer my question to you before on why you hate Republics (even ones like Germany, France, Iceland) so much you wouldn’t live in one and are a big fan of monarchies too?
PS. Does anyone know if jrkrideau is actually a Russian living there udnerPutin’s rule themself? (Not sure of jrkrideau ‘s preferred pronouns.) I guess that could explain the brain-washed Putin supporting?
@ 82. jrkrideau :
Since the vote was a clearly invalid sham done at gunpoint and coerced and the annexations of Ukrainian land illegitimate and NOT internationally recognised at all* I’d say they don’t allow Putin to go anywhere at all FWIW. Although he can go and fuck himself.
.* Okay, maybe recognised by Russian puppet states like Syria and Belarus but nobody else and they basically don’t count here.
@ 93. Charly, #92.blf & #91 John Morales : Well said & good points made.
@ 56. jrkrideau :
What specific errors were there in that video? Mere assertion that something is “garbage” without supporting evidence and specifying why you consider it “garbage” can & will be easily dismissed as just mere assertion from a clearly biased source here.
I find it interesting that jrkrideau hates republics yet happily supports Russia which….checks notes….is a republic.
Is it actually republics they dislike or is it rather that they like autocrats or generally dictators of any flavour (but the more fascist leaning the better) and is perhaps rooting for the birth of the putinic Empire?
Ooh, I know, join the mobilisation jrkrideau. I hear that putin is looking for more roaches to sacrifice a la….
Fat Freddy’s Cat: War of The Cockroaches
StevoR @95: jrkrideau is a Canadian. I see no reason to doubt that. There are many Westerners who see NATO and other institutions, including the mainstream media, as the puppets of US imperialism, which is apparently the greatest evil in the world today (maybe ever!). That view is at least to some extent understandable.
But these folks take it to the extreme; anyone in contention with the US and its ‘puppets’ are the good guys. That would include Russia and China, which they apparently see as the Last Great Hope of mankind (if there is any sort of rationality behind this weird idea, I have yet to see it). So of course they parrot anything coming out of the Kremlin or other approved sources.
The problem with that, of course, is that the contradictions have to be somehow accommodated. For example, on the day of the invasion, the parrots were peddling the story that Russia had won the “Special Military Operation” in the first few hours. Since then, some of them have been parroting the story that Russia is trying very hard to minimize civilian casualties. If there were massacres, they must have been committed by Ukrainian Nazis. Others are calling for Ukrainian cities to be flattened, and infrastructure to be completely destroyed.
And, of course, they are convinced that Russia is now just biding its time, and the hammer will fall on the Ukrainians any day now.
All in all, a study in ideology carried to the point of total self-delusion.
@ ^ Rob Grigjanis : Canadian?! Okay, thanks. I would not have guessed.
Fair points afterwards too. Ideological blinkers do strange and harmfult things to the mind.
Putins fanboy clearly did not watch John Morales video link to Potted History of Ukraine. The term potted is a way of saying preserved.
There was no mention of ‘Novorussia’ though they did include the Kossacks of Crimea and the war + annexation by Imperial Russia.
It was Taurida Oblast before it was ‘New Russia’, but it’s always been Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!!
@jrkrideau
іди до біса
@ 100 Tethys
Lolwut? It means, “shallow; superficial”. It’s the opposite of “comprehensive”.
Oh yay, nationalism. I’ve always thought if there’s one lesson to be drawn from this conflict it’s that the world needs more militaristic nationalism. What could go wrong?
(/sarcasm)
Silentbob:
A potted history is brief, a quick summary. An adumbration. A synopsis.
It was my own term, and being Australian it’s a normal usage here.
In short, it’s brief, but it’s also factual and informative.
Also: I too say Slava Ukraini!.
I have no problem uttering that; it shows solidarity.
And yes, Ukraine is a nation-state. One which is being invaded.
Again: Slava Ukraini!
(Or, as we Aussies might say it, “Go Ukraine!”)
@silentbob
Potted beef is tinned beef. I’ve never heard potted as a synonym for superficial, though I have heard the term ‘potty’ used that way.
No idea about the potted = drunk idiom.
[obs, centuries’ worth of history encapsulated into less than 12 minutes is gonna be non-exhaustive]
Oh, right; the dictionary wars.
(https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/potted)
[interlude]
released in June 1985:
Thanks John.
I’m still thinking it has something to do with the American expression ‘It’s in the can’ which means something similar. Quick, brief, done and dusted.
Slava Ukraini!
Anyway…
If anyone actually wants to understand what the conflict is all about rather than resorting to Ronnie Raygun era “evil empire” rhetoric, here’s a video that’s vastly more useful than Morales’ silly “superficial history”:
Why Russia is Invading Ukraine
Watch this one half hour video and I guarantee you’ll be more educated on the topic than 99% of all Pharyngula commenters. (Cue Chigau to tell me I can’t actually guarantee that.)
If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, it’s an existential crisis for Russia – tl;dr that’s what it’s all about.
Silentbob:
Opinion pieces are all well and good, but my video was a direct response to jrkrideau intimating that Russia is just consolidating its own territory, and (previous in other threads) suggestions that Ukraine is not its own nation-state.
It was not supposed to try to explain why Putin (metonymic for current Russia, here) decided to stop the hitherto-successful salami tactics and try for the whole pot in one hand.
(Which I feel I should explain to you is a poker term, given your demonstrated perceptiveness)
<snicker>
Yeah, about that. Before this invasion, it was not gonna be a thing for at least decades. Now, it actually is a thing.
Also, Finland and Sweden and NATO.
(What the Cold War could not do, this has done — perhaps pouring gasoline on a fire is not the best way to extinguish it)
—
Never mind the demographic bomb, the limited economic prospects, the ageing of Putin, the ever-widening prosperity gap between Russia and Europe.
Never mind trying to weaken the NATO alliance, to sow discord, to leverage Europe’s dependence on Russia’s energy, to repeat the annexations of 2014.
Or Putin’s increasing grandiosity.
No. It was solely about NATO. In your estimation.
That’s what you took — I even specified a date , that is, when relations were thawing and the Cold War was coming to an end and Russia was being rehabilitated in the USA consciousness — from my musical reference?
Heh.
Oh, right. Salami tactics.
Why is Russia invading Ukraine… again? The same reason it invaded before, to annex and control the ports on the Black Sea.
The only existential threat posed to Russia by Ukraine was that Russia can’t abide its citizens noticing Ukraine prosperity, democracy and its evil western ways of providing its citizens functioning economies, complete with oh so modern tech like washing machines and indoor plumbing.
At some point Putin might want to recognize that he has accomplished an amazing own goal in energizing NATO, and simultaneously ensuring Russian ostracism from (checks notes) the whole world minus 4 petty dictators.
On the ground:
Silentbob @109: Not a bad video. Couple of things made me laugh, for which I don’t blame the author: calling Belarus “friendly and loyal” (definitely a potted, and somewhat potty, description, but I get his point, and he didn’t have time to elaborate); and calling the Russian military “powerful and capable”. We had no idea, on Feb 26, just how incompetent they were.
Still, the overall takeaway is more or less “evil wannabe empire”.