Trump has been boasting that the large tariffs he slapped on many countries (and then reduced, and then reintroduced, and then suspended, and then … well, you get the idea) had the effect of the heads of those countries begging to talk to him and make deals that would be favorable to the US. Maybe, maybe not. So far there have been few concrete deals announced.
But one place where that has definitely not happened is with the most important trading country of all, and that is China. They have clearly called his bluff and now it is Trump who seems to be pleading with the Chinese premier Xi Jinping to take his call but Xi is playing it cool.
“The president is obsessed with having a call with Xi,” said one person familiar with the trade talks, convinced he can personally hash out deep-seated divisions between the world’s two largest economies mano a mano with Xi.
That conviction belies the difficult position the U.S. is in as it tries to pressure China to fundamentally reorder their nearly $600 billion trade relationship, without doing lasting political damage at home. And it renews questions about what Trump’s endgame is in a trade war with China that is increasingly turning into a game of chicken.
The person familiar with the trade talks, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about their private conversations, said the administration is under “a lot of pressure” because of China’s block on critical minerals, crucial components for everything from auto and electronics manufacturing to munitions production. “I don’t think Xi is too interested in exporting any more rare earths or magnets to the United States, he’s made his position clear,” the person added, though they predicted there’s a “good likelihood” Xi would take the call to at least hear Trump out. “The president has some leverage, and the question is when he’s ready to impose maximum pressure on the Chinese government.”
…Other outside observers remain skeptical Trump will actually be able to get Xi on the phone. Since the start of the president’s second term, White House officials have been publicly promising a call between the leaders is imminent. Trump even tried to suggest through oblique comments in April that the two had spoken since Trump’s inauguration.
“Beijing has a sharp nose for weakness, and for all his bravado, Trump is signaling eagerness — even desperation — to cut a direct deal with Xi,” said Daniel Russel, who was assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration. “That only stiffens Beijing’s resolve.”
The Chinese government has also been shaken by Trump’s public spectacles in the Oval Office — including high-profile meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa — which has made it wary of leader-level diplomacy.
“The PRC sees President Trump as unpredictable, which poses risks reputationally for President Xi,” said Rush Doshi, former National Security Council deputy senior director for China and Taiwan in the Biden administration. “It’s not usual practice for PRC diplomats to put the leader at risk of a potentially embarrassing or unpredictable encounter.”
…White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday that the leaders would “likely talk this week,” echoing a prediction National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett made Sunday. But a White House official, granted anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes conversations, said a call has yet to be scheduled.
Asked about a potential call during a press briefing on Tuesday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian replied, “I have no information to share on that.” The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to a query about it. But a statement from China’s Commerce Ministry on Monday accusing the U.S. of “stirring up new economic and trade frictions” suggests they aren’t in a conciliatory mood.
Given the way that Trump and those around him publicly tried to humiliate leaders like Zelenskyy and Ramaphosa, the Chinese are unlikely to have Xi meet with Trump. In addition, why would they risk even having a call and then have Trump lie about how Xi begged him for a deal? Trump simply cannot be trusted to act like the leader of a country instead of like a snotty frat boy obsessed with showing how clever he is at the expense of others. They are likely to just wait it out and let low-level officials talk until they have a deal that is agreeable to them and that Trump cannot spin as a huge victory for his deal-making skills and pressure tactics. Of course, he will try to do that anyway, with ever more brazen lies.
It is clear that Trump put all his self-described superior deal making eggs into the single tariffs basket and while such bullying tactics may work with smaller countries, when it comes to big economies and trading blocs (China, the EU, the BRICS group), it is proving to be a bust.
“Shout loudly and carry a small twig”, as Theodore Roosevelt for some reason didn’t say.
A fundamental problem dealing with the MN (malignant narcissist) with respect to foreign trade as that he has no idea what he is talking about. He seems to actually believe that other countries pay tariffs we impose (his fantasy of trillions of dollars flowing into the USA from abroad) and he views trade deficits as other countries taking advantage of our good nature.
Imagine trying to negotiate new baseball rules with someone who believes the problem with baseball is not enough touchdowns and too many field goals?
The Chinese in general prize self-control. Trump’s (apparently?) uncontrolled behavior makes him come across as a raving madman or a hopeless drunk, meriting only contempt and disgust. I would guess that they would rather not have to deal with him at all.
joelgrant: I really don’t think Trump CARES what is or is not true. It’s all about scamming and manipulating people for the next short-term “win,” the next chance to grab attention and make everything all about himself. Nothing else is even real or comprehensible to him. His policies could leave millions of his own supporters dead in a month, and he’ll just hide among his ring of reliable suckups and blither incessantly about what a big beautiful deal he got that no one else could ever have done better.
Allison: the Chinese DON’T have to deal with Trump. They can just hold out and wait until either he dies, or someone else takes control of US foreign policy, or the US just totally loses whatever political will we still yet have to do anything substantive (or maybe all three?); and then they can pretty much take what they want and leave us whatever we’re able to salvage for ourselves.