I do not really understand how the stock market works other than at the most naive level. I know that in theory, the price of a company’s stock should reflect the value of the company, so that if the company is making profits and pays good dividends to its shareholders, then the stock price should rise, while if it is losing money and risks going out of business, then its price should drop.

But in the modern world of high finance, there are many more factors that seem to be in play, such as the predictions of future earnings and profits and prospects for growth. Those can raise a company’s stock price even as it is losing money. And there are even more esoteric factors that only the mavens know about.

This brings us to creepy Donald Trump’s social media company Truth Social. I wrote back in April about how it merged with a publicly traded shell company Digital World Acquisition Corp and the initial value of the creepy Trump’s stock was a whopping $6.3 billion. But as economic journalist David Cay Johnson wrote, the underlying value of the stock was effectively zero since its revenues were a paltry $4 million while having an operating loss of $58 million.

Johnson says that this is a classic ‘meme stock’, where the price is sustained by true believers who want to buy and hold the stock as a sign of support for creepy Trump. The rules of the merger mean that creepy Trump cannot sell his share of stock until September 20. As the date approaches, and people holding the stock become concerned that he will cash out his stock and leave them holding worthless pieces of paper, even some of his supporters seem to be having second thoughts and cashing out while they can still get some money. As a result of the selling, shares are currently selling at below $17, down from the high back in April of about $70. Even at this low price, the value of his stock is still $2.2 billion, not bad since he did not put any of his own money into it. It is the stock holders who are essentially giving him this money.

The interesting thing to watch is what investors will do in the coming two weeks. If he sells out his shares the first chance he gets on the 20th, that will depress the value of the stock even more, leaving the remaining investors with an even bigger loss. If they think he is going to do that (and I am pretty certain that he will), they may head for the exits as that day approaches, sinking the price even more than what it is today, reducing the value of his shares even more

Trump, and other company executives and insiders, are bound by lock-up agreements that have so far barred them from cashing in on their shares.

But the lock-ups are set to expire as soon as Sept. 20, at which point Trump may choose to start selling his shares.

Trump has given no indication that he plans to cash out once he is able to do so. But speculation has flared that he might, especially as Trump Media’s latest earnings reports show it losing millions of dollars and generating little revenue.

If he does sell – or if he even appears likely to – investors could lose confidence in Trump Media, a situation the companys own regulatory filings have acknowledged.

Similar to other meme stocks, investing in Trump Media has come to be seen as a way for Trump’s supporters to back him and bet on his chances of beating Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election.

So it should be interesting to see what happens to this stock price in the next two weeks and, if it keeps dropping, if the desire of his cult followers to appear loyal to him gives way to trying prevent themselves from losing even more money.