Brazil elections bring disappointment and hope

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins 48% of the votes in Brazil’s presidential election held yesterday, ahead of the 43% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Since Lula did not get 50%, that means there will be a run-off election between just the two of them on October 30th.

The results are a a disappointment for Lula’s supporters who had hoped that he might be able to avoid the run-off vote, although the polls showed that it was always unlikely. Bolsonaro got more votes than expected. So now we head to the run-off on October 30th.

But there were other encouraging signs in the results for other offices.

Brazil’s election result was a disappointment for those hoping to see a first-round win for the presidential challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but there were still some reasons to be cheerful for the country’s left.

Not only is Lula favourite to win the 30 October runoff – he need only increase his vote share from 48.4% to 50+1 – but diversity got a boost in a few key parliamentary races.

Two trans candidates were elected to congress for the first time in history, two Indigenous women joined them, and several of the allies who helped get Jair Bolsonaro elected four years ago were given the cold shoulder by voters.

Two of the biggest winners were the transgender candidates Erika Hilton and Duda Salabert. Both won easy election to the chamber of deputies where they promised to fight for LGBT rights.

Another new contingent in the lower house came with the election of Sônia Guajajara, who was chosen as one of Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People earlier this year, and Célia Xakriabá, both of whom stood under the banner of the progressive PSOL party.

Their election will provide a much-needed voice for Brazil’s long-suffering Indigenous communities.

Far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has vowed not to cede an inch to native peoples – a promise he repeated on Sunday night – and illegal invasions by loggers, ranchers, miners and hunters into Indigenous land has increased dramatically under his presidency.

In the small mercies department, the left celebrated defeats for Janaina Paschoal, one of the lawyers whose brief led to the impeachment of former Workers’ party president Dilma Rousseff; Fabricio Queiroz, the former police officer and close friend of the Bolsonaro family who stands accused of helping the clan enrich themselves; and Douglas Garcia, a state deputy with Bolsonaro’s party whose harassment of a well-known female TV journalist hit the headlines last month.

The article goes on to describe other notable victories.


  1. Deepak Shetty says

    In cases where the candidate is so toxic, polls are always likely to undercount support -- Quite a few people dont want to reveal that they support such a person , however pseudo-anonymous the poll may be,
    I dont understand how both the statements can be true though -- That it was always unlikely for Lula to get > 50% and that Bolsonaro overperformed -- were there other candidates that did worse than expected(I dont see this anywhere) ?

  2. Deepak Shetty says

    @John Morales
    But how much more could one be than 48.4 but less than 50?
    Other pills talk of a 13 point difference but that could only mean 49-36 and a 15% undecided or who were going to vote 3rd party

  3. John Morales says

    [The inference being that Mano didn’t use the numeric keypad when typing that number]

  4. txpiper says

    ” “If Lula is elected, friction between Brazil and the US will increase in some international arenas. But on the other hand, in the fields of economics and trade, Mexico, Argentina and other Latin American countries are still dependent on the US,” he said.

    “However, no matter whether a left or right government comes into power, Brazil will continue to maintain friendly and cooperative [pied piper] relations with China, especially to strengthen economic cooperation,” the expert noted.”

    Chinese confidence is not misplaced.

  5. txpiper says

    Just doing business.
    “Eugene Yu, the founder and chief executive of Konnech, the technology company, was taken into custody on suspicion of theft, the Los Angeles County district attorney, George Gascón, said in a statement.

    Konnech, which is based in Michigan, develops software to manage election logistics, like scheduling poll workers. Los Angeles County is among its customers.

    The company has been accused by groups challenging the validity of the 2020 presidential election with storing information about poll workers on servers in China. The company has repeatedly denied keeping data outside the United States, including in recent statements to The New York Times.

    Mr. Gascón’s office said its investigators had found data stored in China. Holding the data there would violate Konnech’s contract with the county.”

  6. tuatara says

    So txpiper, your example of ‘just doing business’ in the Americas…Chinese style…[my bold]

    The company has been accused by groups challenging the validity of the 2020 presidential election with storing information about poll workers on servers in China…..
    Mr. Gascón’s office said its investigators had found data stored in China…..

    versus just 3 examples from my link @8 describing ‘just doing business’ in the Americas…USA style.

    In Argentina, military forces overthrew the democratically elected President Isabel Perón in the 1976 Argentine coup d’état, starting the military dictatorship of General Jorge Rafael Videla, known as the National Reorganization Process. The coup was accepted and tacitly supported by the Ford administration[5] and the U.S. government had close relations with the ensuring authoritarian regime, with U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger paying several official visits to Argentina during the dictatorship.


    Brazil experienced several decades of authoritarian governments, especially after the US-backed[15] 1964 Brazilian coup d’état against social democrat João Goulart. Under then-President John F. Kennedy, the US sought to “prevent Brazil from becoming another China or Cuba”, a policy which was carried forward under Lyndon B. Johnson and which led to US military support for the coup in April 1964.[16][17] According to Vincent Bevins, the topping of João Goulart was one of the most significant victories for the U.S. during the Cold War, as the military dictatorship established in Brazil, the fifth most populous nation in the world, “played a crucial role in pushing the rest of South America into the pro-Washington, anticommunist group of nations.


    [Chile] After the democratic election of President Salvador Allende in 1970, an economic war ordered by President Richard Nixon,[19] among other things, caused the 1973 Chilean coup d’état with the involvement of the CIA[20] due to Allende’s democratic socialist leanings. What followed was the decades-long US-backed military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.[21] In 1988 a presidential referendum was held in order to confirm Pinochet’s ruling for 8 more years.

    Here is the official stance of the US Dept of State;

    Supporting democracy not only promotes such fundamental American values as religious freedom and worker rights, but also helps create a more secure, stable, and prosperous global arena in which the United States can advance its national interests. In addition, democracy is the one national interest that helps to secure all the others. Democratically governed nations are more likely to secure the peace, deter aggression, expand open markets, promote economic development, protect American citizens, combat international terrorism and crime, uphold human and worker rights, avoid humanitarian crises and refugee flows, improve the global environment, and protect human health.

    Hahahaha! Workers rights…..while advancing the national interests of the USA, which is to make as much money as possible.
    But hey, at least the USA never stored some data in the wrong place eh? About which….
    The paywall at your link (proof that I attempted to read it) prevents confirming the veracity of your post. But one should at least ask:

    What data specifically were they not permitted to store outside the USA? All of it or just some ‘sensitive’ data?
    What data specifically has the company denied storing outside the USA? All of it or just the ‘sensitive’ data that shouldn’t be?
    What data specifically has been ‘found’ stored in China? All of it, or just the ‘sensitive’ data that shouldn’t be?

    For the USA historically, ‘just doing business’ in Latin America is actively supporting the overthrow of democratically elected governments by brutal dictatorships because brutal dictatorships are more appealing to US foreign policy than a nation’s own electoral choices they make as efforts for self determination and social improvement, because communism or something.
    We know that you like to be non-specific, but you being so is not helpful.
    So, with that in mind, in terms of your first post stating….

    If Lula is elected, friction between Brazil and the US will increase in some international arenas.

    …which side will be putting the sand in the Vaseline?

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