I see a lot of online commentary anticipating that Democrats will flip the house and maybe the senate. They’ve been encouraged by the nomination of Ken Paxton, a totally repulsive corrupt sleazeball, to run against James Talarico — the idea is that that is going to weaken the Republican vote in Texas, along with other visible factors.
Over the last several days, I traveled 550 miles through trump country in Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. I have reliable information that this route was once replete with Trump shrines, but on this trip, there was one (and it was a doozy, near Effigy Mounds, Iowa). All the others had vanished some time over the winter. This isn’t Texas, but it is a very MAGA landscape, and thus a good an indicator. In at least one case, the former Trump Shrine had over the years displayed anti-abortion and various jingoistic symbology. All that stuff was still up, but the name Trump had been taken down. The point is: right wingers, even hard MAGA level right wingers, are erasing Trump from their rhetoric. Assuming that this is a national phenomenon, it matters in Texas.
And now, with the odious Paxton being put in place of the more mainstream Republcian Cornyn to run for Senate in Texas, owing to Trump loyalists following his endorsement, most observers who know Texas are saying that this seat is in play. According to The Hill, “The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Texas Senate race toward Democrats on Tuesday from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” after state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the marquee race’s GOP runoff.” Read that carefully. They are not projecting a Democratic win, but they are saying the race is in play.
I’ve seen fewer Trump signs in my area, too, but I can’t help but note that a majority of those Texas Republicans voted for the Trump-endorsed candidate anyway. I have seen predictions of the ‘blue wave’ for years, and every time, I’ve been disappointed. I refuse to fall for it anymore. I predict minimal change as a consequence of the midterms.
Greg Laden is only slightly more optimistic than I am.
There are strong indications that many Republican-held House seats are likely to flip over to the D column. There are reasons to hope for a slim Democratic majority in the Senate. The chances that Republicans will hold trifecta power after the new crop of electeds is planted in January is about zero. Will Texas be part of that important, historic, and civilization changing moment?
To answer that question, I refer to fashion and style guru, Melania Trump. I’d love Texas to get on board, but we don’t really need texas, and Texas always disappoints. For mere self preservation,
I could be totally wrong, and I hope I am, but I expect the Republican party of Evil will cling to their death grip on American politics for a few more years, simply because the electorate have convinced me that they’re morons.
I too am expecting disappointment. But my track record of expectations is not all that good, so who knows.
The hard-line Republicans will not flip Democrat, but maybe some of them will stay home on election day.
The ‘independents’ -incuding the ones who normally lean Republican- are now a write-off. You cannot win national elections without the independents.
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But a depressing number of districts are dominated by low-information voters which in practice means Republicans. However, the GOP has to throw immense amounts of money across several states that are in play. They might win Texas if they invest all money there but that leaves other states with insufficient funds for the Republican candidates.
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BTW kudos for the guy from Florida that has ‘misplaced’ a lot of GOP money across the years. May he keep embezzling for as long as he remains in the Senate.
The Onion.
“Fractures Emerge Between GOP’s Pro-Pedophilia, Extremely Pro-Pedophilia Wings”.
.https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZaZPiwxPqO4
James Talarico is doing far better at this point than Beto O’Rourke was doing at this point. So there is that. We have six months to go until voting day. Real Clear Politics aggregate polling shows Trump at 39.5% approval rating. I do not see how Trump can rise above that in 6 months.
The Republicans do not need to win. They only need to keep it close. Shenanigans will take care of the rest.
Game was over a while ago. We missed the window to save ourselves.
I understand the pessimism but I am hoping that the Senate and the House flip Democrat. I would love the smell of lame duck in the morning and Trump’s frustration would be a joy to behold. I don’t know about Texas. I like what I’ve seen of Talarico although I don’t agree with his religious views, He seems smart and talks well. Whether that’s enough against Paxton, I can’t tell. The GOP’s MAGA base seems to be remarkably unimpressed by the rampant crime and corruption of Trump’s people. But Trump’s success seems to be based om Mencken’s dictum about nobody losing money by underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
Even if Talerico does well in the polls, I expect Paxton to do something like have him arrested on Trumped-up charges. The fix is in in Texas, and that won’t change with a single election.
My crystal ball is too foggy. My prayers haven’t been answered in decades.
Here in California we’ve got an open primary for governor with the very real possibility that two MAGA Republicans will be left running for the job in the Fall, while the two front-running Democrats aren’t great choices, either. In fact, the leading Democrat has questionable ties to the oil industry.
While that’s the case, I’m inclined to be slightly optimistic rather than pessimistic. My hope is that Democrats gain enough control of the House to make life difficult for Dumpster…kind of like what happened in his first term.
Elections? That’s optimistic.
I like the various cited reasons for optimism….but Trump and the Maga-Conservatives are willing to do a lot of things they shouldn’t, including nonsensical actions undertaken with great fervor. There is too much uncertainty, uncertainty in what the Republicans will do to try to either not lose or invalidate the election, in how much of which group votes, and in what happens after the election…with a couple of months before the new Congress assumes power (and in 2028 before the new President assumes power)…. So, the only thing I believe about this upcoming election is that I do not know what will happen. Things might work very well, things might work very poorly, and complex instantiations between those dichotomies are quite plausible.
I have seen predictions of the ‘blue wave’ for years, and every time, I’ve been disappointed. I refuse to fall for it anymore. I predict minimal change as a consequence of the midterms.
We had a blue wave in 2018 and 2020. The 2022 results were so out of character for an incumbent party they should probably be included too.
Being optimistic about the USA has been a losing strategy for a long time.
I’m done with being optimistic.
Just going to do what I can to defeat the fascists and see what happens.
There is a lot the Blue states can do to keep the fascists in Washington DC away.
It’s called soft secession and it is being done now.
Soft secession works.
It is what the Red states of the old Confederacy have been doing since they lost the war in 1865.
I hope Texas flips, but I’m not holding my breath. I’ve been targeted with a lot of that optimism and requests for donations, only to find my local ballot features a lot of unopposed Republicans.
leovigild: I’m always amazed how Americans view tiny electoral advances as major landslides. There’s only two parties and we see news claiming that 52% is a landslide win.
In most countries, short of 55% in a runoff is viewed as a close result.
… the electorate have convinced me that they’re morons.
Not to defend the overall intelligence of US voters, but they do have the excuse of decades of distraction & disinformation.
I’d like to believe that Texas is a reddish shade of purple, but the reality is that the last Democratic governor left office in 1995. I know a number of people in Texas, and while Austin still seems a blue shade of purple, the rest of the state is pretty red…
Bad Bart @ # 16: … the rest of the state is pretty red…
Not entirely. F’rinstance, highly multi-ethnic Houston elected an out lesbian Democrat mayor in 2010.
Texas has gone socialist????
My hunch is that the Democrats will indeed win enough seats to take the House, and probably the Senate – but will not be allowed to take them. As I understand it (please correct me if I’m wrong) the Vice-President has to swear in new senators, and the Speaker new representatives. Trump, alleging fraud, will tell them to refuse to seat enough Democrats to maintain Republican (+traitor Fetterman) majorities, just as he told Pence to block Biden’s 2020 win. To his credit (and there’s very little that is), Pence refused. Can anyone see Vance and Johnson doing the same? American democrats (lower-case “d”) should be preparing now to combat both cheating of various kinds before and during the election, and attempts to overturn the results if the cheating proves insufficient. A general strike and the convergence of tens of millions on Washington DC is the least that is likely to be required to force Vance and Johnson to respect the results.
“encouraged by the nomination of Ken Paxton, a totally repulsive corrupt sleazeball”. If Americn voters have demonstrated anything with certainty in the last ten years (and more) it is that they demand “totally repulsive corrupt sleazebal” to voye for, and then proceed to do so.
KG @ # 19: As I understand it (please correct me if I’m wrong) the Vice-President has to swear in new senators…
I couldn’t find much about this in a brief search, except that some guy named Joe Biden, after being elected to the Senate for the first time in ’72, wanted to stay at his hospitalized sons’ bedside, and had his oath administered there by the Secretary of the Senate.
Couldn’t find anything (useful) about the House oath of office.
I fear and expect the mid-terms will be rigged, cancelled or both – not in that order, obvs.
With the Trumpist fascists in charge who have already been rigging and gerrymandering and warping things their way and projecting so much of what they themselves will probly do – if they haven’t already done it – I doubt they’ll be any actual free and fair elections.
Voter suppression of course and maybe Musk cheating and certasinly the counter-productive willful wrongness of the third party spoilers, Bothsiderists and OnlyUnicornists already robbed the USA’s last actual hope for avoiding Fascism and tyranny in their last election where too many directly or indrectly chose him over her. Misogyny played its ugly part there too.
You claim the last election was rigged, so there’s that.
You are a defeatist conspiracy theorist, is wha you are.
@19 . KG : “My hunch is that the Democrats will indeed win enough seats to take the House, and probably the Senate – but will not be allowed to take them. “
Scarily plausible if they even allowed to get that far and IF there’s elections that are remotley representative which I doubt.
Oh & yeah #18, the usual political colours for the rest of the globe are backwards in the USoA like their politics generally. The lingering impact of McCarthyism has left catastrophic damage blowing off pretty much an entire wing of the bird of politics there.
@15. Pierce R. Butler : “Not to defend the overall intelligence of US voters, but they do have the excuse of decades of distraction & disinformation.”
Plus a really broken and poor education system and that dreadful well-known streak of anti-intellectualism in USA culture.
@ numerobis : “I’m always amazed how Americans view tiny electoral advances as major landslides. There’s only two parties and we see news claiming that 52% is a landslide win.”
Agreed. Trump keeps claiming he “won”(dubious actually see #22) in a “landslide” but it was actually 49.8% to him versus Kamala getting 48.3% so actually extremely close and a squeaker. Partly hidden by the horrendous anti-democatic Electoral College system of course but still. Just a few % and few thousand votes in it. So yeah that 2% or so Bothsiderists and Third party spoilers and the non-voters put of fby the bullshit made a fatal difference.
@23. John Morales : I base my views on the evidence. That voter suppression robbed Kamala is a statement of fact :
(Bold emphasis original.)
Source : https://sdvoice.info/trump-lost-vote-suppression-won-here-are-the-numbers/
Sure I’ve already cited that Greg Palast piece to you before. I think Palast’s analysis and numbers there are spot on. Accurate. You don’t? Why not?
Musk cheating OTOH, I’m less sure of but there’s certainly some strong indications and reasons for suspicion. It’d be great if they could be properly investigated but of course with Trumpist fascism now in charge its hard to see that happening even from the cowed and craven media that is supposed to hold the powerful to account.
There’s some things Felon Musk said including to his then partner Ashley St Clair :
Source : https://www.tmz.com/2026/05/20/ashley-st-clair-makes-claims-about-elon-musk-election-role/
Which is all too plausible and sounds like stuff Musk would say and do. You don’t believe her? You think Ashley St Clair is lying? I don’t.
St Clair isn’t the only source of some suspicious statements either notably from Trump on a few occasions. Something does seem to be very dodgy there.
Musk also openly tried to bribe voters and we know he, Trump and the Techbros do NOT believe in actual Democracy and definitely don’t believe in playing fair or with honour etc.. Note actual relevant legal action is being taken :
Source : https://afro.com/trump-musk-election-integrity-concerns/
There’s also the reality of the whole Repugs and Trumpists especially projecting onto others their own worst plans and ideas and notably all the accusations that the 2020 election won by Biden was rigged. Did the fascist party do what they accuse the non-Fascist party of doing? Quite possibly.
Now this isn’t conclusive and I’m not saying I’m sure that Musk cheated and rigged it but I do think there’s enough for suspicion and that it is quite plausible and even likely that that was the case. Conspiracy theory? Maybe – but there’s enough evidence and reason to at least warrant investigation and serious consideration here in my view.
Not to mention mass disenfranchisement and voter suppression. Let’s not forget that.
Paxton is going to run a campaign on fear and smear. Already they are calling Talarico gay and a more radical liberal than AOC who will raise your taxes to pay for Drag Queen Story Hour.
If Dunning-Kruger was an infectious disease, Texas would be an epidemic. The state is full of the most self-assured, know-it-all racists and bigots on the planet. Often wrong, never in doubt.
Paxton could wear Klan robes and the MAGA would vote for him to “own the libs.” Sure, Paxton is a self-dealing, adulterous crook but, hey, he owns the libs; nothing else matters.
Paxton is saying that Talarico is vegan because he once got a cheese and egg sandwich. Like, you can’t make this up.
Oh noes, gay and vegan!! Everyone knows that real men only eat hamburderz and are totes heterosexual. Especially all those good old boys in their enormous trucks that they cant afford to drive because fuel has now doubled in price.
I’m not a Trump supporter but I’m still a republican so…
^^^^^^^^^^^^An actual family of Texans that I am related to by marriage.
If Talerico can get the same kind of support from the Latino community that trump did in 24, (55%) he can certainly win Texas. trumps hateful rhetoric directed toward the Latino community over the past dozen years has done nothing but increase his support among that community to levels not seen before in Texas for republicans; evidence that more than a few had their fingers stuck in their ears while singing lalalalala, as trump defined them as “drug dealers, criminals, rapists.”
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StevoR @25:
And stupid.
I already debunked that claim, directly to you.
Repeating it is not useful, because your denialism is not logical.
Deal with the reality: the voters who bothered to vote voted Trump in.
You are exactly like a Trump supporter claiming the 2020 election was stolen.
@ ^ John Morales : You debunked Greg Palast’s piece on voter suppression? I don’t think you did.
Also, no, I’m not going to go over and storm the Capitol obvs. Would be a bit late for that now wouldn;t it?
PS. “already debunked that claim, directly to you..”” .. Where and when?
@StevoR Your time, it wastes.
StevoR, your own research.
I told you, even presuming EVERY SINGLE PERSON ALLEGEDLY PROHIBITED FROM VOTING voted for Harris, it would be fraught. That is the gist.
I don’t want to recapitulate, reiterate, reanalyse it.
If there were any merit to that whatsoever, it would have traction.
—
“indianajones”, YOUR TIME, I WASTE