It looks like Amendment 1 that bans same sex marriage will likely pass in North Carolina on Tuesday. Although there had been some drop in support early on giving hope to supporters of gay rights that there was an outside chance of defeating it, recent polls show that the margin of support has stabilized at about 14%.
Part of the problem is that North Carolina voters are not that knowledgeable and do not seem to realize that the amendment also bans civil unions, which they are not that much against.
The problem for opponents is that only 40% of voters actually know that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions. With those voters the amendment is failing by a 60-38 margin. But with voters who think all the amendment does is ban gay marriage, 27% of the electorate, it’s passing by a 72-27 margin. And with voters who admit they don’t actually know what the amendment does, 26% of the electorate, it leads by a 64-28 margin. The more voters understand the full implications of the amendment the less likely they are to support it, but the clock is ticking.
Nate Silver’s updated model of predictions for bans against same sex marriage and civil unions for all the states suggests that the amendment will pass by 7% to 19%. Support for bans on same sex marriage alone is much greater.