It is becoming increasingly clear that Trump is preparing the ground for a direct military assault on Venezuela. This has been steadily building. There have long been sanctions against that country. Then we had allegations that drug gangs from that country are creating a national security threat to the US, which was used to justify attacks on at least eight small boats in the Caribbean that have killed at least 37 people, on the unsubstantiated claim that they were bringing drugs to the US. Even if true, such attacks would be a flagrant violation of international law. That this was a laughable proposition was made even more unbelievable by the fact that most of the drug flow to the US occurs via the Pacific Ocean, which Venezuela does not share a coast with. But hey, this is the US that doesn’t give a damn about upholding international law unless it is a perceived enemy country that violates it.

It may be that those attacks were an attempt to provoke the Venezuelan government to retaliate in some way so that a full-scale invasion could be justified. This is the standard practice of the US and also Israel. They attack people in their own homes and territories and when those people resist and fight back even in self-defense, they are charged with being terrorists and even harsher attacks follow.

Now we have Trump publicly saying that he has ordered the CIA to conduct covert strikes within the country which suggests that he does not know the meaning of the word covert or that the CIA’s mode of operation is to never acknowledge when and where it is operating. Trump has also ordered its largest aircraft carrier to head towards Venezuela, the clearest sign yet of plans for a potential invasion.

But the main focus has been Venezuela amid a buildup that has seen nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and elite special operations forces deployed off the South American country’s shores.

Trump this month signaled a further escalation by authorising the CIA to conduct operations inside the country, fuelling fears that the US was trying to foment a military coup against Maduro – whom it has designated a “narco-terrorist” and for whose arrest it has offered a $50m bounty – or even prepare a ground invasion.

It may be that he is hoping to be able to stop short of a physical ground invasion which even he must know would be a costly exercise in many ways. But he is clearly trying to topple Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, the bogeyman du jour, now serving the same role as Saddam Hussein did in being built up into a monster posing an existential threat to the US. With Hussein, it was the bogus claim that he had nuclear weapons that he would use against the US. With Maduro, it is the bogus claim that the drug traffic from that country is sufficient to destroy the US. But there seems to be no signs of a popular uprising against Maduro so, short of a physical invasion, the plan may be to instigate a coup, like the US did in the past with Iran and Chile and Vietnam and the Congo and so many other countries. Or it may launch drone attacks targeting Maduro specifically.

There are various possible reasons for Trump’s obsession with Venezuela. One is that it, like Iraq, does have a lot of oil.

Maduro and other senior regime figures are said to have offered extensive concessions in an effort to end the confrontation with Washington, including offering the US a dominant stake in Venezuela’s oil industry. The Trump administration has even eased some sanctions on Venezuelan oil, granting Chevron a licence to resume operating in the country and increase exports from Venezuela. But longstanding tensions have instead escalated further after Rubio pressed the case for a tough approach.

“Trump had, in many conversations, meetings with different people emphasized that he really only cared about [Venezuela’s] oil,” said a US businessman with longstanding ties to Venezuela and close knowledge of the White House’s policy. “But Rubio was able to drum up this ‘narco-terrorist’ rhetoric and get Trump to pivot completely. The U-turn really reflects Rubio’s expanded influence in the administration.”

While oil may be a strategic reason, the actual timing of an outright attack on that country may depend on whether Trump perceives a need to shore up his domestic support. There are signs that he is increasingly unpopular for many reasons (the government shut down, inflation, violations of civil rights, and the brutality of the thugs working for ICE and other agencies, the blatant racism, misogyny, homophobia, and antisemitism of so many people among his supporters) as demonstrated by the massive nationwide protests last weekend, where rallies were held even in deep-red states. US presidents have often used trumped up wars to rally support when they were unpopular and despite Trump’s bluster, he has to know that he is increasingly disliked.