… every thing looks like a nail.
Trump promised that he would end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. That, of course, did not happen. But on day two he revealed his grand plan for ending the war. It turns out that the plan is the same as what he has proposed for pretty much all the problems, and that is to threaten to impose “Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries”.
Trump seems to think that tariffs and other measures on imports is the magic formula to solve every single problem with other countries, and even to solve the budget deficits, irrespective of any realistic analysis of whether that will work. In this case, a little thought would reveal the weakness of his position. The US imports $15.7 billion worth of goods and services from Russia. Russia’s GDP is about $2.2 trillion, so exports to the US account for just 0.7% of Russia’s GDP. This is hardly of the size that would have Russia quaking in its boots and force it to change its policy. Putin has to know that Trump’s tariff threat is a paper tiger.
I wonder what Trump will do when he realizes that tariffs cannot do everything he wants. In fact, it is a very blunt and limited weapon.
Putin has grand ambitions for Russia, such as taking it back to what he sees as its glorious past when it was part of the Soviet Union and even earlier to Tsarist Russia. While he may do something symbolic in Ukraine in order to allow Trump to save face, I cannot see him abruptly ending the war because that would cause him (and in his mind Russia) to look weak and subservient to the US.
The real test for Trump will come when Ukraine asks for more money and weapons to continue the war.
Then, as he always does, Trump will realise something else that he’s just found out about. He will drop the old idea like a toddler drops the toy they were carrying just before they saw another toy.
This sentiment presupposes two things not in evidence:
1. Trump has the wit to realise something beyond his capacity. “I wonder what my six-year-old will do when he realises that the UK first-past-the-post electoral system means his father’s vote for a Labour candidate in what is a safe Conservative seat is largely wasted?”
2. What Trump wants from these threats is for tariffs to cause a change in behaviour from Russia.
The first boils down to “Trump is stupid”, which should be a suprise to nobody.
The second is more consequential. You seem to be persisting in the impression that when Trump does a thing -- like threatening to impose tariffs on another nation -- that action’s intended consequence are what he says they are. I’m not one of these “Trump is playing four dimensional chess” idiots, but in this instance there is something else going on that you keep on ignoring, despite it being reported commonly enough that I’ve heard about it.
Trump threatens tariffs if country A doesn’t do a thing that country A doesn’t want to do. Country A, whose leaders are baffled because they know that tariffs hurt only American customers, not CountryAian businesses, ignore the threats and go about their day. Trump then imposes tariffs, which hurt some ordinary Americans but will have zero negative effect on him or anyone he gives a shit about… EXCEPT, he can selectively exempt certain businesses from those tariffs. This gives him direct leverage over businesses operating outside the US. Favoured clients can avoid tariffs by kissing the ring, and they can gain advantage over their domestic competition. It’s not that complicated -- at root it’s kind of a protection racket.
One of the reasons Trump’s second term is going to be more dangerous than his first has two prongs:
1. it’s his second term, so per the normal standard he’s no longer looking forwards and trying to do things that will make it more likely he’ll win another term. At this point, he ostensibly has four years to do whatever the fuck he wants, then he’s done. That’s worrying.
2. I said “per the normal standard”, but I’m not so daft as to apply the normal standard to a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist who is nevertheless President. The normal standard is he has just four years and then he’s done -- but even his dementia-addled brain must be working on a way of extending that. There’s no good outcome of that…