What I will be looking for in today’s election results


Election day has finally arrived, which I am sure is a relief to all those who have been plagued for the last few weeks, if not months, with TV ads, mailings, and online fundraising pitches that describe in apocalyptic terms the disasters that will inevitably unfold if the opponents win, something that can only be averted if you send money immediately. In the past, the fear was that Republicans would implement policies that were anti-choice, xenophobic, anti-poor, anti-minorities, and anti-LGBTQ. Now the fear is that they will actually subvert future elections, an even more ominous prospect.

For me, the main item of interest is to see how many people will vote for candidates who have signed on to the insane idea that the last election was rigged and that Trump won, along with all the other accompanying QAnon conspiracies. These people have got a lot of attention and this election will be a good measure of how far this mass delusion has actually spread. There are undoubtedly many traditional Republican voters who do not believe all that nonsense. The question is whether they are disgusted enough by this attempt to subvert democracy that they abandon their party loyalty and vote against such candidates or whether their party loyalty is so strong that they are willing to overlook the very real danger of electing such dangerous people to high office.

Since it seems we can no longer take for granted that election officials will endeavor to maintain the integrity of elections and not suppress the right to vote, some grassroots groups are seeking to enshrine those protections into state constitutions through ballot measures. One group in Michigan has a proposal on the ballot today that would prevent at least some of those abuses.

Proposal 2 would amend the state constitution to add a fundamental right to vote, require at least nine days of early voting, allow voters to get on a list to automatically receive a mail-in ballot, sign an affidavit if they lack photo ID, allow for the use of drop boxes, and allow only election officials to conduct post-election audits. Perhaps most significantly, it would require the bipartisan boards responsible for certifying elections in Michigan to do so based only on the official tally of votes. It’s a provision designed to prevent in the future anyone from trying to overturn the vote – something that nearly happened in Michigan in 2020.

Republican-aligned groups in the state have opposed Proposal 2, arguing that it would essentially get rid of Michigan’s photo ID requirement. But Michigan already allows voters to cast a ballot if they lack voter ID, requiring them to sign an affidavit – and Proposal 2 would simply enshrine that protection in the state constitution.

If passed, Proposal 2 would also blunt a separate Republican-aligned ballot initiative that would allow the legislature to pass a veto-proof bill to tighten voter ID requirements and ban outside funding requirements.

There has been limited polling on the measure, but one recent survey found 67% of voters backed Proposal 2.

If the believers in outlandish conspiracies are numerous enough that the reality-deniers win, then the situation is even worse than having election deniers in high offices who think that it is perfectly justified to only allow election outcomes in which their side wins and who will go all out to suppress voting by those blocs they think are unlikely to vote for them. It also shows that the Republican party has really sunk to the bottom, if there is a bottom. But even worse yet is that it shows that the state of democracy in the US is in really bad shape.

So let’s hope that the situation has not become so dire.

John Oliver devoted the entire episode of his show Last Week Tonight to discuss the efforts to subvert elections.

Comments

  1. says

    Make sure when you vote that you observe the security arrangements on the ballots. It is an interesting topic.

    My rural mostly right-wing area has paper ballots. Ironically, some of the people who had opportunity to think about the security arrangements -- won’t. They’ll imagine some vast scheme, individualized and replicated, tailored to each local polling-place.

    I look forward to Mike Lindell explaining how pyramid-building aliens adjusted all the registered and serial numbered paper ballots.

  2. txpiper says

    ————-Presidential Election Popular Vote————-
    ________Democrat_____Republican______Total
    2008___69,498,516____59,948,323____129,446,839________Δ
    2012___65,915,795____60,933,504____126,849,299_____-2,597,540
    2016___65,853,514____62,984,828____128,838,342____ +1,989,043
    2020___81,268,924____74,216,154____155,485,078____+26,646,736
    .
    There are those who don’t believe that the disparate 2020 turnout was adequately investigated or explained.

  3. Dunc says

    From the numbers given at #3, the percentage change in votes cast in 2020 over those cast in 2008 is +16.94% for the Democrats, and +23.8% for the Republicans. Which of those numbers is it you find suspicious?

  4. billseymour says

    I pulled in to my polling place this morning just as it was opening, and there were already 20 or 30 people in line.  In
    my district, that’s the kind of turnout one would expect from presidential elections, not midterms.

    I’ve heard that, in the past, high turnout has favored Democrats, but Republicans are highly motivated to vote this time, probably because of right wing politicians stoking fear.  We’ll see…

    The good news is that I didn’t see any goons with machine guns intimidating voters; but I didn’t expect any since the results, in my district, aren’t really in doubt.  I do fear, however, that if this election is anything but a Republican blowout, lots of folks will get killed.  (Trump was a sore winner…remember?)

  5. Tethys says

    Shhh, don’t tell the pollsters, but relying on poor white bigots to vote you into power is a losing strategy.

    My own informal tally shows that the Rs were motivated to vote by TFG, and this cycle I see no sign that they can be bothered to vote. I’m looking forward to the results, but of course I’m already represented 100% by Dems who face no credible opposition and have broad public approval.

  6. tuatara says

    Hey txpiper.
    I too think there was not enough investigation to explain the disparate 2020 turnout.
     
    The obvious question that I want an adequate answer to is why, after 4 years of that awful t***pster fire, 74,216,154 USAians voted for him again?

  7. Holms says

    #3 tx

    There are those who don’t believe that the disparate 2020 turnout was adequately investigated or explained.

    And since they lack any evidence that there is anything suspicious in that surge, they’ll take vague snipes at it on blogs without presenting anything of substance.

  8. says

    There are those who don’t believe that the disparate 2020 turnout was adequately investigated or explained.

    There are also those who don’t believe black people are the intellectual equals of white people. Your point…?

  9. Tethys says

    It was kind of txpiper to provide the hard numbers that show that dumpster fire did not actually win in 2016. With help from Putin he managed to game the electoral college, but the majority of Americans actively despise that orange swine.

    2016___65,853,514__Clinton_
    _62,984,828__Fascist traitor rapist and general POS tfg

  10. txpiper says

    “did not actually win in 2016”
    .
    In the US, the popular vote is meaningless as it pertains to the presidency. Constitutionally, we will always be an assembly of individual states.
    =
    Not a lot of surprises so far tonight. The republican senate race strategy of fighting fire with fire is holding up so far. I still marvel that Fetterman seems to be doing well in Pennsylvania.

  11. John Morales says

    txpiper:

    In the US, the popular vote is meaningless as it pertains to the presidency.

    Indeed. The President holding supreme executive power.

    Constitutionally, we will always be an assembly of individual states.

    Yes. States, not people. Electoral College.
    I know. For example, https://fairvote.org/archives/the_electoral_college-population_vs_electoral_votes/

    Also, there are provisions for amendment, but surely one could not possibly expect to amend the (second most sacred document in the USA) constitution to make it more like an actual democracy. I mean, you’d know, you’re a native.

    I still marvel that Fetterman seems to be doing well in Pennsylvania.

    Relax. God done it. Probably a prophesy about it in the Scriptures.
    All proceeds according to Divine Plan.

    (heh)

  12. lochaber says

    I still marvel that Fetterman seems to be doing well in Pennsylvania.

    You “marvel” that a popular, experienced, native Pennsylvanian is more popular than a Jersey tv-quack…

    That’s an… interesting take? good luck with it?

    You make a lot of ridiculous comments, but this one might be edging into the 10% of most ridiculous

  13. Dunc says

    In the US, the popular vote is meaningless as it pertains to the presidency.

    Then why did you bring it up?

  14. txpiper says

    “one could not possibly expect to amend the (second most sacred document in the USA) constitution to make it more like an actual democracy”
    .
    Very, very unlikely. It would require three quarters of the state legislatures to approve something that diminishes the value of statehood.
    Originally, the franchise was limited to people who would tend to be interested in the well-being of the republic. This was never supposed be a democracy, whereby the votes of parasites and criminals are admired.
    =
    “All proceeds according to Divine Plan.”
    .
    Definitely…towards conclusions forecast many centuries ago. You should see interest in Israel increase as the US is removed from prominence. Some people think America is mystery Babylon, but I do not, at this point, hold to that view.

  15. consciousness razor says

    txpiper:

    Originally, the franchise was limited to people who would tend to be interested in the well-being of the republic.

    False. Their self-interest might only seem to look like that if you believed nobody else in the republic matters, but it’s simply false that nobody else matters.

    This was never supposed be a democracy, whereby the votes of parasites and criminals are admired.

    A US-style plutocracy/theocracy is the sort of thing that depends primarily on the whims of parasites and criminals. If we ought to have a system governed by laws and not by special classes of people (not even if they’re “special” because you deem them worthy of admiration), then everyone should have the same rights and their votes should count equally — democratic socialism.

  16. says

    I’m gonna make a prediction that I think will be borne out in the next few weeks: what we are seeing is a surge of young people coming into the political arena. That is exactly what the republicans have dreaded because being the party of old white guys is a demographic bomb and they know it. But all they have is an appeal to racists and evangelicals and the young people coming in to vote do not align with that. The republicans are frantic to steal the elections and break democracy because they know that if they don’t their future is to be a permanent minority while all their evangelical hopes and white supremacist dreams are dismantled.

    That is why this is a crucial time. The republicans have to break democracy and their chosen instrument is an incompetent mountebank loser cuck. Womp womp.

  17. says

    This was never supposed be a democracy, whereby the votes of parasites and criminals are admired.

    So what? It should be.
    “That is how it used to be” is the most feeble defense of the status quo. Oh, wait, you’re going to say “but I have always made weak bad feeble arguments and that’s how it’s meant to be…” no, you can level up and try some more sophistimacated philosophamization.

  18. Deepak Shetty says

    @txpiper

    There are those who don’t believe that the disparate 2020 turnout was adequately investigated or explained.

    There are those who believe evolution or climate change is not adequately investigated or explained but,even if true, it doesnt follow that your pet theory is right. -- if you want to claim your pet theory is right , provide the evidence and explanation.
    From your numbers it looks like you are alluding to the fact that roughly 28M people voted more in 2020 and the standard explanation of highly partisan, hence highly motivational elections coupled with the convenience of voting by mail (Pandemic) doesnt convince you. You also seem to be aware of the electoral college so you should have atleast broken it down by states , especially the swing states , since there is no point adding millions to the vote in places by California.
    But go ahead , whats your theory ? the Mexicans and the Chinese decided to throw their weight behind the Democrats and the Russians decided to cast votes fraudulently for Republicans ? Or perhaps what is not investigated is , How , inspite of republican voter suppression efforts , did so many Democrats turn out (or as someplaces have pointed out , maybe because of it)?

    What surprises me is that even poor countries like India have a higher percentage voter turnout than the USA -- and that people like you when they actually get a higher turnout (but still lower than so many countries) think its fraud(except when they win ofcourse) -- why do conservatives have such a low opinion of their fellow Americans -- Do they hate the country , you think ?

  19. txpiper says

    ” “That is how it used to be” is the most feeble defense of the status quo.”
    .
    I wouldn’t necessarily defend the status quo. I was responding to “make it more like an actual democracy”. I never lose sight of the reality that this democracy is broke and in an irreversible downtrend.

  20. springa73 says

    I never lose sight of the reality that this democracy is broke and in an irreversible downtrend.

    I’m inclined to agree, but I think the primary reason for this is that the Republican Party in the US wants democracy and government in general to fail, so that they can set the US up as a pure oligarchy, where only select well-to-do people have full political and civil rights and everyone else is treated as third-class citizens. You might consider this an ideal society, but I think it is better described as a horror show.

  21. tuatara says

    Hey txpiper.
    Please define precisely how

    this democracy is broke”

    when it is, as you say, NOT a democracy?
     
    Given your past comments I can only imagine that for you, making it even less of a democracy than it currently is would ‘fix’ it (anyone who votes for the “other side” being considered parasites and criminals).
     
    And yet, someone like you who cums in their pants* at the unhinged fantasy of jesus returning and murdering billions of people who’s only crime is not believing in him, are permitted to vote.
     
    * your comment @17

  22. Holms says

    #17

    Originally, the franchise was limited to people who would tend to be interested in the well-being of the republic.

    By which you mean ‘white men’, or even more narrowly, ‘white protestant men’.

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