The hapless Rick Perry has pulled the plug on his second run for president when it turned out that his current campaign had even less hap than last time. At least in 2012 he was seen as a viable candidate until the wheels started coming off after his ‘Oops’ moment, the risible failure of memory in one of the debates. This year he was seen as hopeless from the start.
I am certain that all observers had their own ideas of who would be the first to drop out. While those who are barely registering in the polls and have very low national name recognition (Jim Gilmore and George Pataki) might have been expected to be the first to drop out, the more significant predictor may be the results-to-effort ratio. Neither of those two seem to be putting much effort into their races and thus they can hang around, taking part in any debates they are invited to and enjoying whatever media attention might come their way. Those who had set up some sort of campaign structure and still have day jobs as governors and senators may find it harder to justify being away from work and maintain the pretense of still portraying themselves as viable candidates.
Being the first to go is an ignominy that might have held back others who already realize that it is hopeless to continue, and maybe Perry’s exit will open the floodgates to more exits. So who will be next? The British betting house Ladbrokes has odds on the likely Republican nominee and may give us some idea. As of today, Jeb Bush is the favorite at 15/8 followed by Donald Trump at 3/1, Marco Rubio at 6/1, Scott Walker at 8/1, Ben Carson and John Kasich at 12/1.
At the bottom end are Pataki, Gilmore, Rick Santorum, and Lindsey Graham at 100/1, while just above them are Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal at 50/1. So it looks like one of the trio of Santorum, Graham and Jindal may be the next to go.
Interestingly, the undeclared Mitt Romney is in the betting race just above Jindal at 33/1.