Who’s next to drop out after Rick Perry?

The hapless Rick Perry has pulled the plug on his second run for president when it turned out that his current campaign had even less hap than last time. At least in 2012 he was seen as a viable candidate until the wheels started coming off after his ‘Oops’ moment, the risible failure of memory in one of the debates. This year he was seen as hopeless from the start.

I am certain that all observers had their own ideas of who would be the first to drop out. While those who are barely registering in the polls and have very low national name recognition (Jim Gilmore and George Pataki) might have been expected to be the first to drop out, the more significant predictor may be the results-to-effort ratio. Neither of those two seem to be putting much effort into their races and thus they can hang around, taking part in any debates they are invited to and enjoying whatever media attention might come their way. Those who had set up some sort of campaign structure and still have day jobs as governors and senators may find it harder to justify being away from work and maintain the pretense of still portraying themselves as viable candidates.

Being the first to go is an ignominy that might have held back others who already realize that it is hopeless to continue, and maybe Perry’s exit will open the floodgates to more exits. So who will be next? The British betting house Ladbrokes has odds on the likely Republican nominee and may give us some idea. As of today, Jeb Bush is the favorite at 15/8 followed by Donald Trump at 3/1, Marco Rubio at 6/1, Scott Walker at 8/1, Ben Carson and John Kasich at 12/1.

At the bottom end are Pataki, Gilmore, Rick Santorum, and Lindsey Graham at 100/1, while just above them are Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal at 50/1. So it looks like one of the trio of Santorum, Graham and Jindal may be the next to go.

Interestingly, the undeclared Mitt Romney is in the betting race just above Jindal at 33/1.


  1. Al Dente says

    Interestingly, the undeclared Mitt Romney is in the betting race just above Jindal at 33/1.

    That says more about Jindal than it does about Romney.

  2. atheistblog says

    Democrat Party lovers often say that obama is a excellent speaker, I never seen him any awesome speech without teleprompter, if you wanna awesome fiery speech, listen to Brother Cornel West,
    I am an atheist, and I see there very few honest religious people, but Cornel West is truly honest one, as an atheist, and part of scientific community, I don’t accept an iota of him religious, but he is very compassionate person and very decent human being with integrity, so does Bernie Sanders.
    Few MP’s let Jeremy Corbyn compete for Labor leader for the sake of expanding the debate, and you know how that turned out, with people won.
    And when Bernie announced his Democracy candidacy, both DNC and Hillary welcomed him in the twitter, and were looking forward to debate him, let see how this will end, I hope people will win.


  3. machintelligence says

    Rand Paul was not mentioned, but he has to post a 250,000 dollar election bond to pay for the separate caucus that will allow him to run for both the presidency and his senate seat. I wonder if he will be willing to spend the money. He has, I believe, until the end of the month to do so.

  4. brucegee1962 says

    I bet on Graham. I was first thinking of Jindal, but then you mentioned Graham and I was like, Oh yeah, I’d forgotten he was still around. Plus, as a Senator, he’s probably got better things he can do with his time. Jindal is probably sensing that this is as high as he’s ever going to climb.

    Atheistblog: I love this quote: ” I hope people will win.” I feel pretty sure that you won’t be disappointed.

  5. Dago Red says

    Can it be me? I declare myself dropping out of the Republican race as of right now! After all, I seem to have almost as much support behind me as any one of the bottom half-dozen who are still officially on the Republican list.

  6. StevoR says

    The Young Turks predicted Jindal would be first out and he’s hardly running now w (is he?) :


    so I reckon he’ll likely be next -- but losing Santorum from the race and probably a whole slew of the other “also-rans’ (Pataki? Christie? Rubio?) soon would be nice.

    OTOH, I reckon Trump could collapse and implode at any time too and that’s a joke campaign that’s long since stopped being funny, his fifteen minutes are well and truly up.

  7. Nick Gotts says

    Drago Red@3,
    I, by contrast, can honestly, sincerely and wholeheartedly declare that I have absolutely no intention of dropping out of the race for the Republican Presidential nomination under any circumstances whatever. How many of the so-called candidates can say as much?!!?

    (My absolutely adamantine determination not to drop out is based on the fact that I never entered the race to start with, and furthermore, am ineligible even to vote, let alone run.)

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