It was a strange detour in the war in Ukraine — the Wagner group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, abruptly left the field and started marching towards Moscow. Then Prigozhin equally abruptly gave up and retired to Belarus. I certainly had no idea what was going on, or what politicking was behind the maneuvers. It was clear that Prigozhin had made Putin sweat, briefly, and given Putin’s reputation for dealing brutally with betrayal, it was surprising that his opponent was walking away without a dose of poison or falling out a window.
Well, the price of crossing Putin has been paid. Prigozhin apparently has died, along with the crew and other passengers, in a catastrophic airplane crash.
In one video geolocated by NBC News near the village of Kuzhenkino in Tver Oblast, Russia, what looks like a plane can be seen spiraling down through clouds, trailing smoke behind it. The video, filmed from the ground and posted on social media, shows the apparent jet hurtling toward the ground before crashing and erupting into flames, sending a dark plume of smoke spiraling into the sky.
Another video filmed from a car near the same area shows an eyewitness driving beside a field in which the fiery wreckage of a plane can be seen. Another, graphic and close-up, shows someone inspecting the flaming wreckage in a field and swearing as they come across what appears to be two bodies.
You are clearly paranoid if you think Putin could have anything to do with such a ruthless, violent ‘accident.’
I have a hunch that the odds of the other 9 people aboard this private jet (including the flight crew) all being undeserving of this fate are slim to none.
This is about the most predicted accident, lately in Russia
The betting was Prigozhin wasn’t going to live much longer.
It’s Russia, after all.
People have done far less than Prigozhin and ended up falling out of windows.
There were 9 other people on the plane, who I guess are just collateral damage.
Putin must have badly wanted Prigozhin dead to kill 9 other people just to get him.
Or, the Russians just didn’t care about killing a few more innocent people.
Yevgeny Prigozhin demonstrated a major lack of judgement here.
Everyone knows that human life is cheap in Russia and you can die any time for a lot of reasons.
As a member of the power structure and a mercenary leader, whose business is mass death, he had to know it as well as anyone.
Well, he should have tried going all the way to Moscow.
The real question is did they get the real Prigozhin here: the man was known to employ at least two body doubles.
There was another high ranking Wagner officer on board, and the guy who founded the group, so the grand total of innocence on board was likely negligible.
In one report I saw, Russia isn’t denying shooting it down, claiming they mistook it for a Ukrainian drone, which is slightly plausible given that Ukrainian drones were active at the time.(the ones being launched from within Russia).
Russia is putting out a bunch of conflicting claims to muddy the waters.
It’s extremely unlikely they accidentally used a high-end SAM system capable of hitting a high altitude target at a business jet with its transponder on, thinking it actually was a low-flying Ukrainian drone with a lawnmower motor.
raven@2: the other Wagner high-ups weren’t collateral damage. Utkin was the military leader; the other passengers were also notables.
The flight crew weren’t personally targeted but they were part of this military organization that the Russian ministry of defense want to destroy.
@1,2,7
Who is Dmitry Utkin and who else was reportedly on the plane?
@6: The likelihood of an accidental shootdown seems very low when you consider the plane took from Moscow; i.e. it was not approaching the area from outside.
The BBC interviewed a former spokesliar for Putin this morning, who claimed Ukraine was responsible. I’ve also seen a claim online that it was the CIA, punishing Prigozhin for failing to go through with his march on Moscow after paying him $1bn. Nothing at all from the Kremlin itself, last I heard. I’m agog for the first claim it was aliens.
KG @10:
LOL. Yeah, it’s gotta be the Deep State, which is why we should elect Trump…or something.
@KG, that was actually my first joke. “I’m not saying that it was the space aliens, but…”. ;)
Of course, with the massive influx of intelligent weapons systems, it could actually be an accident involving a smart missile, being an extreme fan of Prigozhin, simply rushed toward him to embrace him, forgetting that it lacked arms with which to embrace him.
A case of mistaken identity for a drone is possible, after all, what nation tracks air traffic, especially in time of war, around their national capitol? That’s unheard of, as such remote locations get no air traffic to speak of. I mean otherwise, when Wagner was advancing toward Moscow, had air traffic been closely tracked, Putin would’ve hopped onto the executive aircraft and took off from Moscow…
Oh wait…
There’s a Wikipedia article here. It catalogs the people on board:
There’s also this note at the end:
There are at least six other ways the aircraft could (and likely was) brought down other than a SAM launch to that altitude. The flight path as described in the media thus far doesn’t rule out a SAM strike, but neither does it rule out certain other catastrophic onboard events. Investigators will probably discover that one of the knives for the in-flight meal had been replaced with an icepick some time early next week.
Putin has offered his condolences saying (per WaPo) that Prigozhin “was a talented person” who “made some serious mistakes.” Emphasis on past tense.
I would agree with Putin that Prigozhin made some serious mistakes…I’m not sure about his talents. I’m fairly sure Putin has also made some serious mistakes. Somewhere, someone in that bunch gangsters is saying, “It’s Putin or me, baby, and it ain’t gonna be me!” (famous last words)
Here’s a thought: As Prigozhin at least claimed that he wasn’t going after Putin but the inept Russian military brass, perhaps they were behind the deed even without Putin’s approval.
Also, why were the senior leaders of Wagner Group in Moscow and flying to St. Petersburg? Weren’t they banished to Belorussia?
NYT is reporting that American and other Western officials say there was an explosion on board the jet. “The explosion could have been caused by a bomb or other device planted on the aircraft, though other theories, like adulterated fuel, are also being explored, the officials said.”
Further Putin quote from the NYT: “These are people who made a substantial contribution to our joint efforts of fighting the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. We remember this, know this, and won’t forget it.” Oddly one of the dead was famous for his Nazi tattoos.
Prigozhin: I came here to drink vodka and fight. And I’m all out of vodka.
Putin: Go ahead. Underestimate me. That will be fun.
It looks like the average mental age of the Russian leadership is around 12.
Well, apparently some people know more than I do, which is nothing, null, zero. You do know, of course, I had the late DP’s ear, and his checkbook, right? Robert can confirm, not
That’s “Robro” spell check. Just sayin
re Jaws:
video shows a wing blown off (inconsistent with an onboard icepick attack or suicide squad , some (trustworthy?) journalists have pointed out that photos show the wreckage perforated in a manner consistent with munitions used in SAMs and inconsistent with an ‘internal’ explosion (SAM’s warheads eject thousands of metal projectiles – making what they hit into swiss cheese) the tell-tale holes are not typical of a mechanical failure induced explosion (like a fuel tank exploding) – so either an on-board bomb was placed (a suitcase full of c4 and ball bearings) or a private jet with a registered passenger list and flight plan (and a transponder) was taken out by a s300 (or similar system)—-Ukrainian special operations or a dissident Russian group maybe could achieve the former- but would be a difficult mission, the Russian military using a SAM? – would be ‘shooting fish in a barrel- the plane had a TRANSPONDER
Insert overused quote about shooting at kings from “The Wire” here.
notaandomposter: one claim I’ve seen is that they turned the transponder off. Which is almost certainly BS. Yes the transponder stopped sending … exactly when the plane disintegrated, which tends to be associated with transponder failure. If they turned the transponder off, it was within a couple minutes of being shot down; seems unlikely.
wajim @ #17 & #18 — I know nothing either, just passing on what I’m seeing in a news thread while trying to do some work which I know nothing about either. I find it somewhat amusing to see what “American intelligence” (oxymoron alert) is telling the media to say. I don’t even know who “late DP” is, nor that you had his “ear” tho I would guess that upset the DP.
Akira @20: The idea is much older than The Wire. Ralph Waldo Emerson said “when you strike at a king, you must kill him”. There are less pithy versions going back centuries. But IMO the version given by Verbal in The Usual Suspects is more chilling: “How do you shoot the Devil in the back? What if you miss?”.
The pilot and two crew murdered. No big deal apparently.
Sounds like the plane crash “accident” that killed Paul Wellstone and family in 2002.
#24: It was either Prigozhin’s jet, or a jet owned by Wagner, it wasn’t hired from some outside company for this flight. Really hard to see how the private pilot and crew for a war criminal are innocent victims.
#25: Oooh, a nonsense conspiracy that has no similarities to current events, great! That’s exactly what we need. /s
If conspiracies are called for, then a plane crash seems like a great way to fake your death and get away from a dictator that wants you dead.
Wagner fighters are furious and vowing vengeance after their leader Prigozhin’s presumed death in a plane crash
I assume the icepick remark was a reference to the way Trotsky was assassinated.
A Washington Post item:
First assertion I’ve see that there’s no evidence of a missile. Of course, it could have been aliens. Their ET weapons systems are superior to anything human and virtually undetectable.
fergl: I feel a little bit bad for the crew but they were crew for the leadership of a military unit. That’s not exactly innocent bystanders.
Westbrook: Given that the plane was owned by Prigozhin, it’s safe to guess that everyone else on it were associates of his, with the possible exception of the flight crew. So I wouldn’t really call them “collateral damage.” Also, the plane went down in a field, not on any buildings. so no collateral damage on the ground either.
russia could have shot it down completely by mistake. not like they’ve accidentally shot down planes before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007
Has anyone pointed out that in a horror movie the monster always has one final scene – especially when the body has not been recovered?
Helge @ #33 — In horror movies these days, there’s always the cliffhanger end to tease the sequel.
Heh. Yes, https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NeverFoundTheBody
@28, @19: Yes, the “icepick” was a reference to Trotsky. And the substitution of the icepick in Prigozhin’s table service is parallel to the horse’s head in the bed in The Godfather… which, in turn, was probably copied from the Cheka’s ways of warning bureaucrats-too-essential-to-eliminate to color a little more inside the lines.
Let’s just say that aircraft, despite being built of metal, are more fragile than they appear — especially at altitude.
The Guardian has a story titled “Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced”. It’s mostly about how common the suspicion is that he wasn’t on that plane, and other conspiracy theories about what happened. However, part of the hesitation to declare him dead held by some people is because he was declared dead in another plane crash in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2019. He reappeared three days later…Wow! Just like Jesus Christ. I may be impressed with his theatrical flare if he pulls that off again.
Louis Armstrong adds his comment about Putin
https://youtu.be/28ULUQgxJ5M
@robro:
Nah, Mr Putin rarely misses on opportunities like this.
[OT]
birgerjohansson, Louis Armstrong died in 1971. So, no. No comment about Putin.
(Also, that song is from 1928)
You know what they say: In Russia nothing is true until the Pravda denies it.
I wonder if Prigozhin really was on that plane.
John Morales @ 40
Yes, I meant “Zombie Louis Armstrong”
(What? You have no zombies over there? We have entire zombie ideologies, just look at Le Pen and our local SD party)
BTW
When Putin invented the word verticality a decade ago everybody believed he ment “to be vertically integrated with the boss of bosses”.
What he really meant was “People I don’t like will move vertically very fast, from windows and from aircraft”.
rietpluim: the kremlin has indeed denied the claim that it killed Prigozhin, so that bar is cleared.
John Morales @ #46 — But you have to admit there are parallels between the character “Mackie Messer” and Putin, among others.
Und der Haifisch, der hat Zähne,
Und die trägt er im Gesicht.
Und Macheath, der hat ein Messer,
Doch das Messer sieht man nicht.
And the shark, it has teeth,
And it wears them in the face.
And Macheath, he has a knife,
But the knife can’t be seen.
All I know is that given the prior actions and movement of Wagner them all suddenly moving towards Russia again “should” lead Putin to either a) be going, “Oh hell, I just screwed up…”, b) “Who the hell did this without my authorization?”, or c) “Who the hell did this, find me proof so I can get these people to stop again!”, depending on whether or not it was really an accident. But, if Putin was so buddy buddy with Trump on state visits due to similarity of personality.. that might become, a) “Who can I blame, other than me, for screwing this up?”, b) “Who can I blame for it, even if they didn’t do it, while I try to figure out who actually did?”, and possibly still c, if it wasn’t someone he had any level of control over.
In any case.. unless some sort of deal has been struck, and this movement back towards Russia is non-threatening…
It’ll be amusing to see the Tankie line(s) on this – my guess is that they’ll be all over the place, with some praising Putin for his resolute action, some blaming the CIA, some thinking it’s a 5-dimensional chess move and Prigozhin will be capturing Kyiv for Putin any day now…
The Guardian has this lede today: “Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, said on Friday that he warned the Wagner group chiefs Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin to watch out for possible threats to their lives, and he insisted that Wagner fighters would remain in Belarus.” Ya’ think? Prigozhin and Utkin needed a warning about threats?
And oh boy! The Guardian also reports that there’s a second plane linked to Wagner Group that was in the air at the same time. The operator of the second plane denies the plane had any connection to Wagner Group. The Joe Rogan club will have weeks of hashing over all of this.
robbo @32: That was not an accident, it was deliberate. USSR authorities explained their decision afterword.
Aussie ABC news :
“Russian investigators say [blah]”
Heh.
Russian civil aviation investigators are serious people. The voice and data recorders will record what we all already know: out of nowhere, the plane blew up then fell straight out of the sky. Whether the pilots were alive to say anything is unclear.
The analysis of the wreckage, on the other hand, will find whatever the authorities want to find.
If putin were truly clever, he’d have had one of Prigozhin’s body doubles on the plane so he could claim his revenge was complete, while Prigozhin could live in exile somewhere. Win/Win?! It would be possible, even if unlikely.
shermanj, Vlad Vexler a couple of days ago:
(He speaks rather slowly; I routinely watch his videos at 1.35x)
[I watch PZ at 1.25x]
@53. shermanj :
Not so much for the body double on the plane..
@51.John Morales : Well, no one says you have to believe what they say. Just a news story saying what they are saying obvs.
@56 StevoR said: Not so much for the body double on the plane..
I reply: You are right about that. I suggested Putin would do that. He is a monster. I didn’t mean to imply that I would condone that. I personally feel the rampant Putin Parade of bodies out of 3rd floor windows is barbaric. There are so many violent barbarians running around everywhere.