This one’s been bouncing around in my head since Trump announced he was going to meet with Kim Jong Un. Whether or not the Trump administration is working directly with Russia, I think it’s clear by now that Putin has been putting a fair amount of effort toward bolstering his own regime by wearing down any place that seems to have it better. It also seems clear to me that this kind of activity works to the benefit of any other kind of autocratic regime, like the one in North Korea
And so we come to my fear – If Trump’s regime is good for domestic politics from the point of view of Putin and Kim, then it would be trivially easy for them, probably along with China, to effectively stage a massive success for Trump that even he couldn’t screw up. The official end of the “Korean Conflict”, normalization of relationships with Pyongyang, and a promise to behave (now that they have nukes), or even a promise to dispose of their nukes, could easily be enough to get another majority in the Electoral College, if not in the popular vote.
I have no idea how likely this scenario is, but it seems to be well within the realm of possibility, and I find that worrisome.
Anybody that loves humanity already has to work pretty hard to justify that to themselves. It’ll be that much worse in Trumpistan: The Continufication. As an ecologist, do you think you could derive some solace and encouragement from the fact that some life will remain and proliferate after we kill ourselves off? Who will be the next Lystrosaurus?
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I feel like all my comments now are over-the-top catastrophe or anger. Should probably quit the net for a minute.
OK, I’m not sure I entirely agree that an outbreak of peace on the Korean peninsula would be a bad thing if it benefits Trump (or Putin, or anybody else). Peace is a good thing, and the lives of all the people on the Korean peninsula are not just counters in some US political game. It sounds a great deal like you want to hold all of them hostage for domestic political advantage.
I should also perhaps mention that I don’t think it will take anything of the sort for Trump to win a second term – the American electorate almost always sticks with the incumbent when that choice is available, so I would say that he’s very likely to win barring something absolutely catastrophic happening, such as a major financial crisis or significant military defeat (assuming he runs, that is).
@ #1 – I shouldn’t really claim myself as an ecologist (only have a bachelor’s and some field tech work), but yes – the continuation of life after humans is a comfort to me, as is the highly likely existence of other life somewhere out there.
@ #2 – The problem is that given how much damage has been done to our system in the last year (Trump filling seats McConnell stole for him, damaging our credibility and reputation abroad, undermining environmental protection, attacking the justice department, and so on), while peace on the Korean peninsula would definitely be a good thing, I feel like the longer Trump is in office, the harder it will be to keep the U.S. from completely degenerating into an outright oligarchy.
Having the U.S. join Russia and China on things like human rights and freedom would not be good for the world.
From an outsider’s perspective, you’re about 20 years too late there.
Again from an outsider’s perspective, the US is already about as bad as Russia and China on these matters, at least as far as foreign policy is concerned. It also doesn’t seem to be that much better domestically, if you happen to be poor and / or black.
Amongst much of the world, your reputation is already that of a near-genocidal supporter of tyrants and mass murderers, the world’s top exporter of death and destruction, and the leading opponent of environmental protection. Trump doesn’t seem to be making anything any worse there, he’s just taken the mask off. Internationally, you have no credibility worth worrying about, except amongst your cronies and clients. Even most of NATO has been backing away from you since well before Trump’s election.
Also, it’s worth remembering that the US’s extremely selective and situational interest in human rights (i.e. you only care about human rights when they can be used as a stick to beat your enemies, but will happily overlook any violation, no matter how severe, when committed by your clients) is a significant factor in the degree of suspicion that idea of universal human rights is subject to in many places. And that the major influence that the US has had on environmental initiatives such as the Paris Accords has been to stall them, water them down, and pull their teeth… On both topics, there are many people who think we’d be better off without your “help”.
From an insider’s perspective I’m pretty sure you’re right. Can’t stop fighting though.
Honestly I can’t find fault with most of what you say.
The one thing I will add is this: I do believe that however ineffectively, the American electorate has been able to influence some mitigating control over the American government.
From an insider’s perspective, it could get a LOT worse.
Well, sure – but then we’re right back to where I came in with the observation that it looks like you’re up for holding everybody on the Korean peninsula hostage for the sake of your domestic political concerns… And given that the Korean situation is currently #1 on my list of potential flashpoints for global thermonuclear war, that seems a little short-sighted to me.
Also, as bad as it would be to have Russia, China, and North Korea handing Trump a second term… I’m not sure the blame can really be placed on them. How did Trump get his first term? Who gave him a first term? The American voters gave him a first term. But… that happened through a system where the winner can have 2-3 million fewer votes than the loser. A system like that isn’t democratic. It’s not even majoritarian.
Peace on the Korean peninsula would be great, however it comes about. If Trump takes credit… well, it wouldn’t be the first thing he wasn’t responsible for but slapped his name on anyway.
All other things being equal, I’d rather live on a peaceful Korean peninsula with Trump’s name on it than on a peninsula at war, whatever anyone chooses to call it. The name can always be changed later.
There might be a “Trump Effect” nudging people towards a peace treaty, but it would have more to do with people realizing that, given the leadership in America at the moment, “American leadership” isn’t something to wait for, nor is it something that can be counted upon.