Who is going to profit?

The first quarter of 2025 is going to be rough.

Does he even understand what tariffs do? Like, who ends up paying for them? He wants to impose a 25% tax on our two most important agricultural partners, and also on our trade partner, China. In the middle of winter, fruit and vegetable prices will be launched skyward. I also expect that the big grocery chains will see this as an opportunity for even greater price gouging. Didn’t he campaign on complaining that grocery bills were too damn high?

He also tried this before in 2018, slapping more tariffs on goods from China. It doesn’t seem to have worked.

I think my Christmas present to my wife and myself will be all about stocking the pantry in December, and maybe we’ll have to expand the backyard garden in the spring.

Do we have to remind him of Smoot-Hawley? I hate having to dust off my high school civics knowledge.

Adventures in medicine

This morning, I was holed up in the local hospital getting some routine tests done. I’m getting old, I get aches and pains, so every once in a while I have to go in and get inspected detected injected and selected, just because. If anything unusual is going on in my body, I go in to find out if it’s anything to worry about. The latest unusual thing is that for the last several years I often get arthritic flare-ups in my ankles and knees, but this year, to my surprise, my joint pains are gone. Just completely ache-free. I go for walks and my limbs are moving smoothly with hardly a glitch. This is not right, I am not at all used to this. Maybe my legs have died and are twitching zombie-like with no feeling?

I gave the doctor a small bucket of my blood and they measured all kinds of stuff, and to further my surprise, I am 100% grade-A normal, every indicator smack in the middle of the range. I have no excuses anymore. I am weirdly healthy.

We checked Vitamin D (because Minnesota) and Vitamin B12 (because Vegetarian) and again, boringly average and perfectly normal. My blood pressure is 120/70, like it’s supposed to be.

Oh, one enlightening exception: my %monocytes and %eosinophils were both absurdly high, but the doctor deflated my excitement by telling me that right now, that’s also entirely normal — those cell types are indicators of viral infections, and we’re still seeing symptoms of a recent pandemic. I guess if you’ve been exposed to some mystery virus in the last 4 years, you’re likely to have the proportions of those immune cells elevated.

Just to be sure, I also got my COVID and flu vaccines.

I am not accustomed to this degree of normality. I am not used to this at all. It might mean I’m about to die mysteriously.

From the depradations of the bros, deliver us, O Lord

The Northmen used to disrupt monastic scholars with axes and fire, but nowadays they plan to use AI. I think the publishing industry might cry out for a return to more brutal forms of barbarity after seeing this team of bearded bros climbing out of their longships.

New publisher Spines aims to ‘disrupt’ industry by using AI to publish 8,000 books in 2025 alone

Once upon a time, ‘disruption’ was not a desirable result…although I guess you could call what a slaughterhouse does to a cow “disruption.” It doesn’t help that the description makes it look like yet another grift.

A new publisher has claimed it aims to “disrupt” the books industry by publishing 8,000 books in 2025 alone using artificial intelligence (AI). Spines, founded in 2021 but which published its first titles this year, is a startup technology business which—for a fee—is offering the use of AI to proofread, produce, publish and distribute books. The company charges up to $5,000 a book, but it can take just three weeks to go from a manuscript to a published title.

Respectable publishing houses pay the author for the right to sell their books, not vice versa. If it’s a good book, and if the publisher does their job of promoting and distributing the book, there’s no reason to bill the author. If, on the other hand, your company is just churning out books through a print-on-demand service and is going to do nothing but skim off the profits, they might well decide that there are enough gullible wanna-be authors out there that they can gouge out $5000 before letting the product wither.

They let just anyone in

The Royal Society is one of the oldest, most respected, and most exclusive scientific societies in the world. Imagine my surprise to learn that Elon Musk is a member.

This brings us, then, to the case of Elon Musk, who was elected as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2018 on the basis of his technological achievements, notably in space travel and electrical vehicle development. Unfortunately, since that time, his interests have extended to using social media for political propaganda, while at the same time battling what he sees as “woke mind virus” and attacks on free speech. Whereas previously he seemed to agree with mainstream scientific opinion on issues such as climate change and medicine, over the past year or two, he’s started promoting alternative ideas.

They thought Elon Musk was inventing new technology with his mighty brain, rather than simply buying large teams of engineers with his mighty bank account? Tsk.

That account comes from a former FRS who has resigned at this tainting of the society. She is asking that he be stricken from the rolls, and lists multiple reasons why he brings shame on a distinguished scientific organization.

Scientific misconduct
Ethics & management of Neuralink
Promoting vaccine hesitation
Downplaying the climate emergency
Spreading deep fakes and misinformation on X

The Royal Society has done nothing; I guess once enrolled, forever enrolled, and no amount of anti-science ignorance or the promotion of atrocities will change that (that’s to be expected, given the history of the British Empire.) The society did contact a lawyer to make sure it was OK to keep a known professional troll in their ranks.

I gather that at this point the Royal Society Council opted to consult a top lawyer to determine whether Musk’s behaviour breached their Code of Conduct. The problem with this course of action is that if you are uncertain about doing something that seems morally right but may have consequences, then it is easy to find a lawyer who will advise against doing it. That’s just how lawyers work. They’re paid to rescue people from ethical impulses that may get them into trouble. And, sure enough, the lawyer determined that Musk hadn’t breached the Code of Conduct. If you want to see if you agree, you can find the Code of Conduct here.

The Society has promised to look more deeply at the Musk case, but don’t expect much.

I’ve been told that in the light of the evolving situation, the Royal Society Council will look again at the case of Elon Musk. In conversations I have had with them, they emphasise that they must adhere to their own procedures, which are specified in the Statutes, and which involve a whole series of stages of legal scrutiny, committee evaluation, discussion with the Fellow in question, and ultimately a vote from the Fellowship, before a Fellow or Foreign Member could be expelled. While I agree that if you have a set of rules you should stick to them, I find the fact that nobody has been expelled for over 150 years telling. It does suggest that the Statutes are worded so that it is virtually impossible to do anything about Fellows who breach the Code of Conduct. In effect the Statutes serve a purpose of protecting the Royal Society from ever having to take action against one of its Fellows.

Sounds like most other human cliques.

Aw, shucks — no evidence of alien microbes

The Japanese space agency sent a probe, Hayabusa 2, to an asteroid that returned with physical samples from its surface. The samples are being scrutinized closely in a search for signs of microscopic life — they have found plenty of organic molecules, as was expected from a chondrite.

They did find some suggestive shapes, tiny rods and cylinders, that have dimensions in the ballpark of what we see in terrestrial life. Maybe these are examples of extraterrestrial organisms crawling over the surface of space rocks? Maybe?

Electron microscope images of sample A0180. (a) A backscattered electron image (BEI) showing a matrix dominated by phyllosilicate with framboidal (fM) and spheroidal (sM) magnetite, dolomite (D), and sulfide (S). Areas containing abundant organic matter (OM) are present. (b) A BEI of rods and filaments (RF) on the surface of the specimen. (c) A secondary electron image (SEI) showing the detailed morphology of filaments with indents denoting individual cells. (d) A SEI of the cavity shown containing an organic rod structure. (e) A BEI showing cluster of rods and filaments around a dolomite grain. A cylindrical mold (MD) is also present. (f) A carbon Kα map of the image shown in e illustrating that filaments are carbon-rich (RF) and showing a C-rich rim on the dolomite grain. The contrast of the map has been enhanced using a linear filter. All pixels with an intensity of >50% are saturated (g) A secondary electron image showing highly elongate filaments. (i) A BEI of a dolomite grain surrounded by matrix containing abundant organic matter. A cluster of filaments is also present. Images were obtained on the November 11, 2022 (a–d), November 30, 2022 (g, h), and the January 14, 2023 (e, f).

Except…no, the observations are more compatible with the idea that the organic molecules on the rock are suitable fuel for the growth of earthly contamination.

The presence of microorganisms within meteorites has been used as evidence for extraterrestrial life, however, the potential for terrestrial contamination makes their interpretation highly controversial. Here, we report the discovery of rods and filaments of organic matter, which are interpreted as filamentous microorganisms, on a space-returned sample from 162173 Ryugu recovered by the Hayabusa 2 mission. The observed carbonaceous filaments have sizes and morphologies consistent with microorganisms and are spatially associated with indigenous organic matter. The abundance of filaments changed with time and suggests the growth and decline of a prokaryote population with a generation time of 5.2 days. The population statistics indicate an extant microbial community originating through terrestrial contamination. The discovery emphasizes that terrestrial biota can rapidly colonize extraterrestrial specimens even given contamination control precautions. The colonization of a space-returned sample emphasizes that extraterrestrial organic matter can provide a suitable source of metabolic energy for heterotrophic organisms on Earth and other planets.

The paper gives a detailed timeline of how the sample was treated, from the moment of collection with sterilized instruments in space to all the cutting and polishing they needed to do to expose a ‘clean’ surface, and examination with various instruments. It turns out that you can store it for long periods of time in extremely low pressure chambers or pure nitrogen gas, but at some point you’re going to have to expose it to our atmosphere so you can cut it and embed in epoxy and grind and polish it, and that’s an opportunity for contamination. The authors think that’s what happened.

The change in the population of microorganisms over the course of 64 days suggests the sample was contaminated with microorganisms during the preparation of the polished block. Indeed, the sterile handling and storage under which the sample was kept from its return to Earth (Yada et al., 2022) until it was removed from a nitrogen atmosphere, immediately prior to XCT analyses, makes it highly unlikely it was contaminated prior to sample preparation. The possibility that the sample contained indigenous spores is also unlikely since only a small number of microorganisms were initially present despite the 280 days it had spent at ambient temperature since the return of Hayabusa 2.

I can’t call this a disappointing result because, after reading the protocols and the unavoidable exposure to our filthy, dirty planet, I think this should have been an expected result. I am impressed with how avidly our bacteria will leap into action to gnaw on even a dead rock containing organic carbon.

Science has always been political…but especially now

Augustin Fuentes has a letter in Science. It’s pretty good.

Science, both teaching and doing, is under attack. The recent US presidential election of a person and platform with anti-science bias exemplifies this. The study of climate processes and patterns and the role of human activities in these phenomena are at the heart of multiple global crises, and yet the scientific results, and the scientists presenting them, are attacked constantly. The dissemination of knowledge on health involving reproduction and human sexuality is increasingly marked for attack (in Russia, Uganda, and the USA), and researchers in these areas are often the target of extensive political pressure. The massive attack on the science and the scientists behind vaccines, pathogen transmission, and public health during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond is well documented, as are attacks on basic science education and the practice of science (for example, in Hungary and the USA). Even in the arena of biodiversity conservation, there is growing politicization of the data and political targeting of the scientists producing it. According to the US-based National Association of Biology Teachers (NABT), climate change, reproduction, vaccines, and other evidence-based scientific topics are being deemed “controversial” by school boards and state officials and are being removed from state-approved teaching resources across the country. Core research on health, climate, human biology, and biodiversity is being undermined by private foundations, governments, and anti-science ideologues.

Whether science is political, and if it should be, is an age-old debate. Some assert that scientific institutions and scientists themselves should seek to remain apolitical, or at least present a face of political neutrality. Others argue that such isolation is both impossible and unnecessary, that scientists are and should be in the political fray.

But…is there really a serious debate about whether scientists should be politically neutral? In my experience, the question is settled: scientists should be activists. I emerged from the University of Oregon in the 1980s; Aaron Novick was the chair of the department. He was a veteran of the Manhattan Project, who protested against the Vietnam War, and was on the board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. I worked with George Streisinger for a year, and he was even more radical. His family fled Hungary as the Nazis came to power, also opposed the Vietnam War, and when I knew him, was campaigning against mutagenic pesticides and testifying for the Downwinders, and writing editorials on the dangers of radiation.

What debate?

WTF, NPR?

Here’s a little cartoon that nicely summarizes my attitude towards all those people who voted for Trump.

Get the fuck out of my life. Don’t ask me for anything, not even sympathy. Don’t try to tell me it was nothing personal, you just wanted lower grocery prices (I have news for you — you won’t be getting them), that I’m bad for letting politics interfere with friendship. It’s you that stabbed me and all my friends and a few million innocents with your politics.

That goes for NPR, too. They have a story about a couple in which the wife leapt down the MAGA rabbithole.

Late one night in June 2020, Katrina Vaillancourt lay awake in her bedroom, overwhelmed by the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unable to sleep, she pressed play on an online video series that a friend had sent.

The videos’ narrator promised to reveal “evidence of an elite plan so evil, so all encompassing, that people will be shocked to the core.”

The dizzying 10-part video series was called Fall of the Cabal. It promoted the QAnon conspiracy theory that society is controlled by a satanic cabal that is abusing children. Vaillancourt would later think back on this moment as the point at which her beliefs radically changed overnight, rupturing her closest relationships — including the one with her then-fiancé, Stephen Ghiglieri, who was asleep beside her.

This is a horror story. It couldn’t be worse if instead, she had a debilitating stroke. This was a devastating, near instantaneous transformation that would have warranted an emergency trip to the hospital. NPR treats it as a mundane change of opinion, though.

As Vaillancourt watched, her initial skepticism gave way to a feeling of devastation. She was relieved when the final episodes claimed a group of government insiders was working on a plan to take down the cabal with then-President Donald Trump’s help. The narrator called the president a “genius, a 5-D chess player, a man with a huge heart.” A “golden age” was on the way.

“I felt nauseated by the sight or the sound of Trump prior to this particular night,” Vaillancourt said. But at a time when the world felt chaotic and uncertain, the message in the series gave her hope. “My fear dissolved,” she recalled. “I felt this beaming of love” and “like the curtain had been thrown wide open.”

Dear god. Was she poisoned? Was she always this gullible and delusional? Don’t worry, though, she got “better”.

Vaillancourt voted for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. even though he had dropped out of the race. Trump has picked him to be part of his administration, which she says has given her a reason to feel optimistic.

“I have been of an opinion that’s different than Stephen’s [her husband],” she said. “And that’s a difficult thing for me to even say right here. I don’t share the fear that so many people around me do. That’s difficult to acknowledge too.”

This lunatic woman and her husband have reconciled…and NPR treats this as a happy ending. See, they just have different opinions — she may have voted for a manic anti-vaxxer, she may see a wanna-be dictator who wants to deport millions and deny health care to women, but love will find a way and she will face no consequences from her insane views.

She sounds like the kind of person who loves NPR.

Using “biology” as a cheaply made, poorly understood label by bigots

Nancy Mace poses with a crappy paper label added to a restroom sign as if it’s something she’s selling on the home shopping network, and I cringe. I’ve said this before: this makes no sense. There is no such thing as a non-biological woman, making the phrase redundant. Mace is just appropriating a complex term to assign it to some narrower, more ideological interpretation that she leaves unstated — it’s reducing biology to a meaningless term which bigots can abuse, expecting you to read more into it than is appropriate.

Be honest, Nancy. Spell it out. You really just want to exclude Sarah McBride from using the restroom. Don’t cloak your meaning in bad biology.

Alternatively, I’m going to have to protest this baseless anti-synthetic humanoid bigotry.

He is both an airhead & a rabid Christian nationalist

Pete Hegseth is much more than just a Fox News airhead. He’s a man with a plan.

When Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense, concerns were raised immediately about Hegseth’s undisguised Christian nationalism.

Hegseth, who has admitted that his multiple crusader tattoos got him “deemed an extremist” by his own National Guard unit, has deep ties to misogynistic Christian nationalist pastor Douglas Wilson.

On Monday, Hegseth appeared on the “CrossPolitic” podcast, which is hosted by Toby Sumpter and Gabe Rench, both of whom are closely tied to Wilson and his church.

Douglas Wilson often seems to fly under the radar, but he’s a far-right religious nutjob. Hegseth is cut from the same cloth, apparently. This is not someone you want overseeing the military, especially given his plan to start a culture war.

During the discussion about Hegseth’s book “Battle For The American Mind,” Hegseth said that he is working to create a system of “classical Christian schools” to provide the recruits for an underground army that will eventually launch an “educational insurgency” to take over the nation.

“I think we need to be thinking in terms of these classical Christian schools are boot camps for winning back America,” said Sumpter.

“That’s what the crop of these classical Christian schools are gonna do in a generation,” Hegseth agreed. “Policy answers like school choice, while they’re great, that’s phase two stuff later on once the foothold has been taken, once the recruits have graduated boot camp.”

“We call it a tactical retreat,” Hegseth continued. “We draw out in the last part of the book what an educational insurgency would look like, because I was a counterinsurgency instructor in Afghanistan and kind of the phases that Mao [Zedong] wrote about. We’re in middle phase one right now, which is effectively a tactical retreat where you regroup, consolidate, and reorganize. And as you do so, you build your army underground with the opportunity later on of taking offensive operations in an overt way.”

He learned a lot in Afghanistan. I don’t think it would be too hard to translate to the USA — one nation infested with heavily armed, rabid Abrahamic fanatics is much like another.

Role models for the religious right