I wonder if Donald Trump capitulated to Nancy Pelosi and agreed to reopen the government because he wanted so badly to give the State of the Union speech originally scheduled for January 29 and then cancelled by Pelosi because of the shutdown.
It will be interesting to see what happens on that front now. If he asks about giving the speech, perhaps Pelosi should say that she needs time to properly prepare for the occasion and suggests a new date after February 15th, i.e., when the government needs to be funded again, on the condition that the government remains open. That would put Trump in yet another bind. In short, Pelosi would have reversed Trump’s hostage tactics, using the SOTU as a hostage to force Trump to keep the government open. The difference is that nobody gets hurt if there is no SOTU speech while plenty get hurt when the government shuts down.
Pelosi can keep this process going, dangling the SOTU speech in front of Trump like a carrot, hopefully making him capitulate again and again.
From what I’m reading, it sounds like a deal to give the SOTU before the Feb 15th deadline is part of the larger agreement to reopen the government. It’s also the impression that i get from the coverage that Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn’t have to set a new date until after the bills for funding are passed through both houses & signed by Trump. I imagine this is because Trump promised to sign the previous funding measures in December and then broke his word then, so his word is not considered good enough now & he has to actually hold up his end of the bargain first before Speaker Pelosi is required to hold up hers.
No coverage I’ve seen has expressed those things in so many words, but all of the Trump surrogates in congress and the White House seem to assume that Trump will be giving a SOTU in the next 3 weeks. Combined with the fact that no date has been set (at least not publicly) this seems the most logical conclusion.
If it is an accurate depiction of the agreement, then I wouldn’t want Speaker Pelosi to deviate from it. She should live up to her word, if she’s given it.
On the logical end I think Trump capitulated because he was getting far more flak, and declining numbers, from the shut-down than the Democrats. The willingness of his side to ignore the pain by focusing on hurting the libs wasn’t working. On the emotional end of Trump’s thought process I think you’re largely right. He was getting bested by a woman overall but the denial of the SOTU hurt his pride and eliminated his reserve go-to tactic, going to the public and re-framing the issue, for saving his game.
Reusing the sensitivity is a good idea.
I suspect a victory, much less strategically satisfying, but more viscerally gripping, would be if she attended a meeting with Trump holding a folder clearly marked “Tax Returns Donald J. Trump” inadvertently, but conspicuously, exposed. The pucker factor would be incredible.