Contemplating one’s own death is not much fun, though we sometimes do it inadvertently and it may even be necessary and desirable on occasion. There is an animation that actually makes it kind of fun.
It uses the actuarial tables of the Social Security administration and the blue line on the graph represents the probability that you will survive the next year. Once you enter your gender and age, little marbles start falling into bins that represent the number of years from now that you might die.
Of course, each one is random, so one marble might fall into the bin two years from now while the next might fall into a bin that is twenty years from now, capturing the idea that we cannot predict the exact age of death with any certainty. But over time, the number of marbles in each bin adds up to give you the more familiar probability distribution of life expectancy.
What I liked about this was the fact that when you are told that (say) male life expectancy at birth in the US is 76 years, you tend to think that one will live until then. This animation gives you the startling reminder of the fragility of life, that you could die within the next year, whatever age you are. On the upside, it also shows that there is a small probability that you will live well beyond the average lifespan. In fact, the older you get, the better your odds of living to a very old age. Old geezers like me can take comfort in the fact that though we may not have that long left to live, the probability of living to be hundred is greater than it is for young people.
As I watched the animation for my age and gender, I was rooting for the marbles to fall into the bin that was over the 100-year mark and cheered when it did, though it was really rare.
Somewhat disturbingly, the tallest single bar for me in the first trial I did turned out to be next year.
On the other hand, in that same trial the broad Gaussian curve peaked at about 95.
I don’t much care how long I live. I’m much more concerned about the quality of the life I have left.
You are a physicist, plz be prudent when you talk about math. Is that what you thinking all you life because life expectancy is 76 no one gonna die early in age or just on the first day of age 76 you will die ? 76 is not some magic number statisticians sat around picked randomly ?
I don’t have any illusion about what 76 years life expectancy means.
I guess you know as well, but they way you talking here ” What I liked about this was the fact that when you are told that (say) male life expectancy at birth in the US is 76 years, you tend to think that one will live until then. This animation gives you the startling reminder of the fragility of life, that you could die within the next year, whatever age you are. ” this is just naive. Majority of the population life is expect to live around that age, if you think you gonna live up to that age with good current health, you could be most like one in that group.
Even if you think you gonna live 76 and die tomorrow, still it doesn’t change the fact that majority of the population gonna live up to that age. Just naive, that’s all I have to say.
atheistblog, I don’t think you understood the post; Mano did not say anything that contraindicated either of your points.