Good news from the progeny

#2 Son, Connlann, is going to be promoted — he is now a Captain (Promotable), soon to be a Major. Even better, he’s been assigned to a new base. He’s getting out of Texas, yay! And he’s going to be stationed at Fort Lewis, in Washington State.

Now Mary and I have another excuse to visit the Pacific Northwest, once we get vaccinated…which is not imminent. Last date I heard was SEPTEMBER. Yeesh. I guess we’re down near the bottom of some list.


  1. ajbjasus says

    Hope t all goes well PZ.

    In a rare glimmer of hope looks like we Brits will all be vaxxed by early summer🤞

  2. blf says

    Congratulations to your son & all the family !

    Last date I heard was SEPTEMBER. Yeesh. I guess we’re down near the bottom of some [vaccination eligibility] list.

    (The following is cross-posted from poopyhead’s current [Pandemic and] Political Madness All the Time page, excerpted, reconstructed, and slightly edited…)

    I noticed (French) has a predictor for when one can get vaccinated here in France, which reenforces my fears: “At the current rate of vaccination (77,000 doses administered per day on average) and your profile [age, etc.], you should be able to be vaccinated between March 2022 and February 2023. [About 15m] people should get vaccinated before you do. Projection carried out assuming 100% of the population wish to be vaccinated.” If only around 60% wish to be vaccinated (about 40% have said in a poll they do not want to be vaccinated!), a vaccination as “soon” as October this year is predicted to be possible — which happens to be similar to my own back-of-envelope guess of “August”. Nationally, according to the French track-and-trace smartphone app, c.2.6m people have been vaccinated (one or more jabs, I think), in total, which is about one million more than the States is managing to do per day (before the recent storms). The village I live in has managed to do c.1000, after around three weeks (vaccinating only 5 days a week).

    As far as I can work out, an earlier complaint of mine about the protocol to get vaccinated still applies. That protocol (as I currently understand it): You must first go to your doctor (mostly, as far as I can tell, to be lectured on why getting vaccinated is safe and important). Then your doctor — or maybe, now, you yourself can also do this? — makes an appointment at the vaccination centre. No idea what the waiting time is. (Vaccinations are not being administered by pharmacies, nor, usually, your own doctor.) This system is beautifully “designed” to make it harder for people who want to be vaccinated to get vaccinated, and trivial for vaccination-hesitant people to not be vaccinated (just do nothing!). It’s completely fecking backwards.

  3. raven says

    Last date I heard was SEPTEMBER.

    That looks too far out.
    Or maybe some peculiarity of Minnesota.

    California is going to start vaccinating teachers on March 1, 2021.

    As many have pointed out, right now the vaccine scheduling is the Hunger Games for old people.
    The stakes are high, up to and including your life.

  4. raven says

    California is home to nearly 40 million people. To date, 6,929,954 shots of have been given out, about 78.5% of the 8.8 million doses that have been delivered to local public health departments and medical providers, according to state data.3 days ago

    Tracking California COVID-19 vaccine distribution – Los Angeles …

    I just checked.
    California isn’t doing too bad considering.
    If we toss the 18 and under and vaccine refusers, the vaccinatable population in Calfornia is currently 20 million.

    One third of the US population will refuse to get the Covid-19 vaccine. Which means you get their place in line for the vaccine.
    I suspect that number will eventually end up smaller.
    When millions are vaccinated without ending up with magic computer chips or 666 tattoos, and stop dodging death, the vaccines aren’t going to be so scary.

  5. Nerd of Redhead, Dances OM Trolls says

    Here in Lake County, IL, they are actively getting the vaccines out to K-12 teachers as the vaccine is available. I’ve noticed the glaring omission of college teachers in the communications. I was able to snare a vaccine last week at a mass (7000 people) event sponsored by a supermarket/pharmacy chain for essential workers. I’m retired, but did volunteer driving of seniors to their medical appointments until suspended by state lock-down a year ago. This, by the regulations, made me an essential worker in transportation. I have a confirmed appointment for the second shot (same time, same place) at the 3-week interval.

  6. blf says

    @8, You mean the spiders, not to mention the zebrafishes and kraken, have learned nothing from you? I don’t believe it, this is a “false flag”, “FAKE news!”, teh scheming of a mad perfresser (complete with requisite cat, albeit evil and black).

  7. cartomancer says

    Even though we’re further ahead in vaccinating the elderly than many places, our idiots in power in the UK have just announced that they intend to send schools back to in-person teaching in under two weeks. Currently we are seeing 10,000+ new covid cases per day, and on even the most optimistic estimates it will only be down to 5,000 by March the 8th.

    Which means that it will start rising again from that date. Because closing schools is absolutely vital to stemming the spread. Both because schoolchildren pass it between themselves so rapidly, and then bring it back home, and crucially because if the schools are open then people assume it’s just business as usual. The psychology completely changes when the schools are out – it’s batten down the hatches and endure at home, rather than try to carry on as normal and wheedle your way around the restrictions any time you can. From a start of 5,000 cases per day we’ll be back to 20,000+ in a few weeks, vaccinated old people or no.

    I confidently expect we’ll have to have a third lockdown by about mid June thanks to this. And they could have avoided it entirely by waiting another six to twelve weeks to get case numbers down to nearly zero before opening up again. I was vaguely hopeful until today, but it looks like most of 2021 is going to be lost as well now. All thanks to craven human stupidity. Fuck the Tories and the coterie of morons who voted them in.

  8. whheydt says

    Re: cartomancer @ #10…
    Need to close either the bars (pubs) or the schools. Both open is a disaster not waiting to happen.

    California, while doing okay over all, is hit or miss at the local level. My wife got vaccinated–in part–because the organization where her endocrinologist works called up and said, “Come on in!”. That and she’s 78. In the county we live in, she’d be eligible, but no one seems to be doing much of anything. I’m in the next group down, at not quite 72, and Solano County hasn’t gotten there, even though the state–and other near by counties–have.

    While I’m actually very much in favor of school teachers getting bumped up the queue (and–really–if you want the schools to reopen, that should include the parents and whoever looks after the sprats while the parents are working), it’s another case of “queue jumping”. Seems like every group with a lobbying arm is trying to get their people higher in the queue at the expense of those that the original list (at least supposedly for sound medical reasons) started out higher.

    At this point I some hope that Solano County will get into “Phase 1-B, Tier 1”–which is where I fall–by the beginning of April. Maybe… Depending on how many people suddenly discover that they should come sooner, and manage to convince the the Powers that Be.

  9. whheydt says

    More on cartomancer @ #10…
    I read the BBC news regularly, including those articles about how many summary fines the police have been handing out to people having raves and parties. I keep thinking that the first thing that needs to be done in those situations is to block off all exit routes and catch ’em as they try to leave. As it is, most of the idiots are getting away.

    Schools… Frankly, at least where I live (SF Bay Area) the schools should just stay shut down at this point. About 3 months and the school year will end, then there’ll be a decent chance to return to in-person classes in August/September “normal” start time.

    The idiocy going on here now is that the state is allowing high school sports to start back up. We will see what that leads to in a few weeks. Maybe, with some luck, it’ll weed out some of the jocks, or–at least–some of their parents.

  10. brucej says

    That’s insane. As of today my county (in AZ!) has vaccinated with a first dose at least about 60-70% of our K-12 staff; the U where I work is on a big push to vaccinate all staff and faculty.

    I myself just got my second one last friday. Warning it will kick….your…ass. Woke up Saturday feeling like I’d participated in that Klingon ceremony where everyone stands around whacking you with pain sticks…

  11. Larry says

    Turns out Santa Clara county (CA bay area) has a web page to make reservations for getting the vaccination along with a number of locations where you go. Until recently, it had been high risk and health care pros. Being neither, I wasn’t sure of success even though I’m 65. Turns out, I was given a spot for Saturday at one of the locations, Levi Stadium in my case. After getting the shot, you then make a reservation for the 2nd one, 3 or 4 weeks later. I must say, I don’t think I’ve ever been so anxious to get a shot.

  12. whheydt says

    Re: Larry @ #14…
    That’s the current state standard, it includes people 65-74. Congrats on getting the first shot.
    Solano county has an “on-line interest” form (which I’ve filled out), but the county web site shows it part way through Phase 1-A, Tier 3, which includes people over 75, but not the 65-74s like the state says are now eligible. As I said earlier….hit or miss, depending on county.

  13. magistramarla says

    Yay for Connlann and his family! I’m sure that they have had enough of Texas.
    One of my daughters, who is currently in Houston, is planning her family’s escape by the end of this year.
    We are so very happy to be out of there ourselves.

  14. numerobis says

    blf: “At the current rate of vaccination” — that’s not a reasonable assumption. Like any process it ramps up over time.

    While the distribution in the US has been shambolic, the manufacturing and acquisition have worked well and there’s way more vaccine that’s been administered in the US than in any other large country except if you count Israel as large.

    In Canada I expect mass vaccination to reach me about at the end of summer. There’s lots of sniping at the government for how slow things are going but they’ve been guiding end of summer all along.

  15. numerobis says

    (uh… I might have forgotten the UK among large countries somehow. The UK also has gotten a lot of vaccination done, and it’s been less shambolic there.)

  16. tealviolence says

    I don’t know how the line works. All I can say is retired military 20 years. I did stuff at Seattle VA and I got a call. OK I’ll get the 2 moderna shots. Now and 3 weeks later more so. Yeah at 66 I’m fine. I just note that getting an appointment if I were not “retired military” in the right slot would have taken longer.

  17. davidc1 says

    @18 That’s because the tory govt have been kept well away from rolling out the vaccine .
    There have been calls for the health minister ,matt handoncock to be sacked for awarding
    PPE contracts to his drinking buddy ,a few other ministers have been up to the same thing ,
    bastards .

    Congrats Doc on your son becoming a Major ,it doesn’t seem long since you told us he was enlisting .
    He seems to have a rapid rise ,promotion wise ?Is he planning to stay in the Army?
    Sounds like ,as Capt Willard would put it ,he is been groomed for a top slot in the Corporation .
    Sorry for being so nosey .

  18. blf says

    numerobis@17, I am aware the rate of vaccination is not a constant and should continue to increase for some time — that was a (translated) quote from the cited predictor using my age, etc., as input.

    Nonetheless, the ramp-up is going very slowly, from c.100 people per day the first week (end-Dec) to a mere 77,000 per day this week, about eight weeks later (so, very Very crudely, 10,000 additional people per week). Which, if I now remember my calculation correctly, happens to be the rate I assumed (yes, I did assume a constant rate increase — it was a very rough calculation!).

    In the village where I live, it’s taken about three weeks to do c.1000 people. My own “August” guess was using the then-national figures; the local figures were not known to me at that time, and since I’m uncertain of the coverage area (i.e., how many people the local centre is supposed to handle), it’s difficult to guess with those local figures. Making a lot of assumptions with some very simple calculations in my head, the anticipated availability moves in the correct direction (sooner, albeit with very large error bars).

    However, the main gripe is the entire protocol is arse-end first. Instead of making it difficult to avoid being vaccinated, that is trivial; and instead of being easy to be vaccinated, it’s jump through (largely pointless) hoops. It used to worse, as one example, originally whilst a nurse could administer the jab, they had to be supervised by a doctor, and a doctor could only supervise one nurse. Now a doctor can supervise ten nurses. There have been other tweaks, albeit, as one example, allowing pharmacies to give jabs is not (as far as I know (and certainly isn’t locally!)) one of them.

  19. maireaine46 says

    Congratulations to Connlann and family for getting out of Texas! It is a great place to leave. He looks very like you, minus beard and hair. Hopefully you will get to see more of your grandson in the future. We are old and still not vaccinated in NJ, it is a mess in many states.

  20. ANB says

    Interesting range of answers. San Joaquin County, CA (seat, Stockton, for those from afar) K-12 teacher (60 years old) got first jab last Friday. Been getting updates from my superintendent more than once a week, and the dates are always changing, but, in short, things are ramping up.

    Hope you get your shots sooner than later.

  21. strangerinastrangeland says

    My host country Iceland published a rough timeline for vaccinations a few days ago. According to this, the lowest priority group – to which I unfortunately belong (or fortunately; no risk factors, no dangerous occupation like frontline health worker) – is expected to get their shots between mid May and end June. Was hoping for an earlier date but will have to hold my horses. At least my 80+ year old mom in Germany has now her appointments booked and will be safer in a month’s time.