I don’t know how likely it is that the US will have another civil war in the near future, but I no longer think it’s out of the question. I don’t think it would look anything like the Civil War of the 1860s, but with fascism being a major part of current US politics, some kind of armed conflict within US borders seems possible. The question is, what would it look like? Well, I don’t really know. The video below is from an interview with a fellow who has spend a while studying and interacting with far-right people and groups who actively want war. One thing from the interview that I think is important to highlight is that when you think of far-right conspiracy theorists who might be willing to take up arms, remember that that includes people like the commanders of military bases. It may be less Red Dawn, and more Dr Strangelove, if a bunch of Q-anon base commanders decide an election was stolen, and that it’s their duty to take orders from the loser.
The military splitting is one of the three dangerous situations I imagine for a second civil war.
1. The military divides in some way with enough on the rebel side to be dangerous. There are 2 primary subcases.
Sorry that got posted automatically somehow while I was composing it.
1a. Middle state rebellion. Farm country. Lots of territory falls into rebel hands but they lack in resources. They lose the war quickly but trying to control this huge area becomes the sort of unending problem that never really goes away.
1a. New Confederacy. South East rebellion. Area falls into chaos quickly as they can’t get control of their own territory due to the percent of the population that opposes them. I can imagine a weird subcase here where the new reconstruction puts blacks in control of the states and government positions. Creating a weird inversion where whites now actually are an oppressed minority.
2. Single leader/religion. The country is divided not be territory but by loyalty to a specific leader or religious cult. The rebels resort to violence to try and seize control but without a major military element can’t get far. However, because they are divided into small groups across the country the central government has trouble making things safe either. This could drag along for years, possibly decades, with lots of odds groups sitting in the middle. Unwilling to commit firmly to either side, calling for peace and negotiation even though one side says they will lie and commit terrorist acts to take power.
3. Single incident. A popular leader and a military leader ally to declare a new valid USA. The rebels are concentrated in a single city and easily take control because they have planning and weapons. The rebels don’t really have the majority of the population on their side but they have enough people and weapons to barricade the city, occupy some countryside, threaten neighboring towns and leave the national government with a lot of bad choices to retake control.