New on OnlySky: What would it take to raise the birth rate?

I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the trend of falling birth rates and what, if anything, we can do to reverse it.

The birth rate is falling across the world, in both wealthy and developing nations, in societies that seemingly have little in common culturally or politically. If this trend continues, the global population will level out within a few decades and then start to shrink. If this is a problem we need to collectively address – and not everyone agrees that it is – then the first thing we need to do is to figure out the cause.

This column proposes one possible explanation, and a solution to go with it.

Within the last two decades, for the first time ever, humanity became a majority-urban species. But cities are crowded and expensive, and tens of millions of people around the world are struggling with the burden of sky-high housing prices. Could this also be the cause of our birth woes: people forgoing having kids just because they can’t afford enough space for a family? Would building more affordable housing increase the birth rate as well?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but members of OnlySky also get special benefits, like member-only posts and a subscriber newsletter:

In spread-out rural regions, land is cheap and there are few barriers to population growth. However, in an urban setting, space comes at a premium. If your apartment doesn’t have an extra bedroom, having kids requires moving to a bigger place. That can be a costly proposition, if it’s financially feasible at all.

The repercussions of super-expensive housing don’t stop there. It also makes it harder for young adults to move out from their parents’ houses, delaying them from starting families of their own. It causes a trickle-down effect that increases the prices of everything else, including school taxes and daycare. It forces even people who have homes to devote a greater and greater share of their budgets to upkeep, leaving less for everything else.

With the deck so heavily stacked against them, it’s no surprise that some people decide kids are a luxury that’s simply too expensive to afford.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

The Probability Broach: Ook ook

A close-up of a chimpanzee

The Probability Broach, chapter 9

Win Bear keeps getting attacked by unknown assailants, and he’s narrowly escaped death twice. In the anarcho-capitalist North American Confederacy, there are no police. If you’re in danger, you have to pay for private security to protect yourself. Win’s counterpart, Ed Bear, has done just that:

Captain Forsyth, head of the security contingent, was an old friend of Ed’s, a grizzled, wiry customer in a gray herringbone lava-lava and long black cutaway coat—right in style for Confederate rent-a-cops, and not the least bit funny once you took in the wide leather gunbelt and heavy automatic strapped around his waist.

…Oh yes. He’s also a chimpanzee.

On the day he arrived in the NAC, Win remembers seeing funny-looking strangers on the street. He thought they were mutants, but actually, they were apes. Now that he’s met Captain Forsyth, he learns how this came to pass:

I remembered the discovery in my own world that simians can’t talk only because their vocal apparatus isn’t up to it. We’d only just begun teaching them sign language. It had started here a hundred years earlier, maybe because Darwin’s opinions were more graciously received, or maybe because Confederates view innovation as a blessing instead of a threat. Or maybe because they haven’t wasted so much time and effort, so many useful lives, on war and economic disaster. Anyway, science and philosophy have never been separate departments here. Any critter who can handle more than a few hundred words is human.

We saw how, in Smith’s alternate history, racism just melted away when government was abolished. Now it appears the same is true of religious fundamentalism.

We’re never told if religion still exists in this world. Are most citizens of the NAC Christian, Muslim, or something else entirely? Are there still churches, and if so, what do they look like? Smith is uninterested in that subject; he never addresses it in any meaningful way.

But whatever their beliefs, everyone in the North American Confederacy welcomes science. There’s no ideological resistance to new discoveries. Smith says evolution was “more graciously received” than in the real world, where it faced (and still faces) stubborn opposition from religious literalists who believe their book of myths is absolute truth.

(This is a contrast to Ayn Rand, who got the heebie-jeebies about evolution. She didn’t outright deny it, but she refused to say if she thought it was true. She was an atheist, but she found it icky that humans might be related to other animals.)

I can’t deny it’s an attractive idea, but again, the causality cries out for an explanation. In the absence of government, it seems likely that religion would get stronger, since churches would claim to offer a source of stability in a world otherwise lacking it. That’s what happened in Europe during the Dark Ages.

With no public schools, religious schools would be some of the main providers of education, and they’d be free to teach children anything without oversight or standards. And while some denominations don’t deny science, many do. Why wouldn’t biblical literalism, young-earth creationism, and every other kind of pseudoscience and superstition run amok in this world?

As soon as they understood the setup, chimps, gorillas, a couple of other species waded right in and began exercising their rights.

…Lacking vocal speech, simians wear a device which translates tiny muscular movements—subliminal sign-talk—into sound. As with individual handwriting and telegraphy, each “voice” has its own personality: natural variations in bone-structure, muscular development, perhaps even character.

…Gallatin and Spooner believed it: any creature who can think is, Q.E.D., “people.” It’s calmly anticipated here that someday there’ll be computers with rights—and they’ll be welcome too.

There’s something missing from this chapter. The more sci-fi you’ve read, the more likely you are to overlook it—because it’s such a familiar and expected element, it’s easy to assume its presence and not notice that it’s never mentioned.

In many sci-fi works, advanced civilizations use genetic engineering to uplift other species to intelligence. If you read this part quickly, you might think that’s what Smith is saying, too.

But no. There’s no genetic engineering. What he’s saying is that chimps, gorillas and other apes were always intelligent, and the only reason we didn’t notice is because they lacked the capacity for spoken language.

The only thing they were waiting for was a political system to their liking. When they saw Smith’s version of anarchy and approved of it (were chimps reading the newspaper?), they came forward.

Once technology gave them the ability to speak, it immediately became obvious that they were equal in every other respect to human beings: written language, tool making and tool use, economic understanding, political participation, and scientific reasoning. As commenter andrewnotwerdna jokingly summed up Smith’s view: “Did you know that gorillas would be able to speak if it weren’t for taxes?”

(This does, ironically, echo the Indonesian mythology which claims that orangutans can speak but choose not to, fearing that humans would enslave them and put them to work if they knew.)

It’s true that great apes, our closest relatives on the tree of life, share some of our intellectual talents. They can learn language, to an extent, and use tools, to an extent. They can pass the mirror self-recognition test. They’re capable of feats of multi-step reasoning, like figuring out that they need to stack boxes on top of each other to reach a reward.

However, I mean no disrespect to our ape cousins when I say that they’re not intelligent in the same sense or to the same degree as humans.

Chimps use sticks to fish for tasty termites and rocks as hammers to crack nuts. But you’ll never see a chimpanzee constructing a fire drill or a rudimentary lathe – or even knapping stones into spearheads.

Similarly, apes can be taught some sign language (some have learned several hundred signs). However, they’ll never compose a sonnet or write an autobiography. They don’t have the capacity for complex syntax that human children learn intuitively.

Once again, I think Smith was trying to make a generous gesture toward inclusivity, but he went about it in one of the weirdest ways possible. Also, by asserting that these species were intelligent all along and didn’t need any help from us, it allows him to sidestep a different problem: Are there animal rights in the North American Confederacy?

If a creature can’t speak or advocate for itself, does it have any legal protections? Against cruel treatment, or abuse, or being hunted to extinction? Can NAC citizens bring back bear-baiting or dogfighting, or perform cruel medical experiments on them without oversight, or raise animals in cramped and filthy cages for food or furs?

Given that this is an anarchy where the only rights you have are what you can defend for yourself, the answer would seemingly have to be no. No hands means no firearms, which means no rights. That leads to some very ugly scenarios which, no surprise, go unmentioned in this book.

Image credit: Clément Bardot, via Wikimedia Commons; released under CC BY-SA 4.0 license

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New on OnlySky: Vaccine wars

I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about anti-vax ideology on the ascent in America, and the utterly predictable consequences that are soon to follow.

Vaccines empowered us to banish the killers that have plagued humanity for thousands of years. It was a victory that would have seemed unimaginably miraculous to anyone who lived before modern medicine. But in our victory, we got complacent. We forgot why we’d ever needed them, which left room for anti-vaxers to slip in, sowing their poisonous lies. Now this anti-rational ideology has gained control of one of our two major political parties, and through them, the government.

Red states and the corrupted federal government are rolling back vaccine mandates, and as sure as night follows day, these preventable diseases are reappearing: measles, polio, diphtheria, and more. Tragically, it’s the next generation of children who will pay the price. If we keep going down this path, we may end up revisiting the era when childhood death was a normal and expected part of existence.

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is members-only (registration is free!). Members of OnlySky also get a subscriber newsletter:

The consequences of ignorance are completely predictable, and we’re already seeing them. In 2022, polio reappeared in an ultra-Orthodox Jewish enclave in upstate New York.

Then, in 2025, the U.S. suffered its biggest measles outbreak in at least twenty-five years, mostly striking unvaccinated religious communities in West Texas. Dozens of people were hospitalized, and three died: two children and an adult.

Pertussis, or whooping cough, is also surging. We’ve had over 20,000 cases so far, more than at this point last year, which was itself a fivefold increase from the year before that. There have already been ten infant deaths.

How much worse could it get? A research paper from April 2025 simulates the result for the U.S. if vaccination rates continue to drop, and arrives at some grim numbers.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

The Probability Broach: Indian trouble

Artwork representing Columbus and a group of Christian soldiers landing in the New World

The Probability Broach, chapter 9

We saw last week how L. Neil Smith alters American history to fit his ideology. He dislikes the fact that the Federalist founders, who were in favor of centralized government, also tended to be the most opposed to slavery; while the Anti-Federalists he admires were fine with it. So, he rewrites the historical record to put everyone on the “right” sides.

This week is another example.

Libertarians of all stripes have a problem justifying the conquest and settlement of the New World. If they believe in property rights, as they constantly affirm, how can they give their allegiance to countries created by murder and displacement of the original inhabitants?

Some, like Ayn Rand, defended it in flatly genocidal terms. She denounced the Native Americans as savages who had no right to their own land. But Smith takes a different tack.

Here’s what happens in his fictional North American Confederacy:

Take the Westward Movement: France at war with England and the world; Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase, Lewis and Clark; the Homestead Act; cattle barons and squatters; gold in California; the U.S. Cavalry, and war with the Indians. But to Ed it meant Sam Colt, whose repeating sidearm allowed individuals, rather than mobs, to make a place for themselves, self-sufficient and free. And it meant renting or buying land from Indians cannily eager to take gold, silver, or attractive stock options.

As with federalism and slavery, Smith is aware that actual history doesn’t fit easily into his assumptions. Rather than grapple with this problem, he writes a new history that’s more ideologically comfortable.

In this libertarian-friendly alternate history, the Native Americans were still displaced by white colonizers—but they were happy to move and no one felt any resentment over it. In fact, he hints they got the better half of the deal (“cannily eager”).

Needless to say, this is laughable nonsense. No group of people, in any society or timeline, is going to cheerfully vacate their ancestral homeland to make way for a wave of new settlers. I don’t care how much they got paid.

Famously, Manhattan was “purchased” for 60 Dutch guilders, or about $925 in today’s money. The Native Americans who made that deal almost certainly didn’t think they were giving the land away entirely, but granting their European guests the opportunity to share it—a welcoming gesture that came back to bite them. Obviously, the colonizers made no effort to correct that misunderstanding.

Based on interactions like this, it’s possible to imagine a coexistence scenario, where Europeans share the land with Native Americans and assimilate into their culture. But that would imply a radically different history than even this one. In Smith’s timeline, American westward expansion went more or less the same as in our world. The only difference is the political ideology that justified it.

To further show that the Native Americans did better in his reality, Smith makes one of them president:

There seems no mention of Indian trouble—a Cherokee is elected president in 1840, that same Sequoya, I think, who taught his people to read and write.

The list of Confederate presidents is short, many serving five or six terms without upsetting anybody. Year after year, their steadily diminishing power was less an object of envy or violent ambition… there was another Indian president, Osceola; Harriet Beecher was her own First Lady; in 1880, a French-Canadian of Chinese extraction was elected—so much for for the Yellow Peril, mes enfants!

Again, I can credit Smith for trying to write a less-bigoted history. Unlike Ayn Rand, who vigorously endorsed the prejudices of her era, he recognizes that racism and sexism are bad things. He wants to portray a world where they’ve diminished.

But the way he goes about it is absurd. What he’s implying is that racism is caused by government. As soon as the Constitution is abolished, all prejudice disappears in a puff of smoke, and people are suddenly happy to coexist and treat each other as equals.

What’s the causal mechanism for this? Does government somehow force people to be bigoted, even when it’s not their inclination?

The answer he’d give, I suspect, is something along these lines: Centralized government offers the choice of ruling over others or being ruled yourself. This kicks off a zero-sum scramble for power, where people turn to bigoted ideas as a way to give themselves a leg up. Without government, people no longer feel threatened by each other, so those beliefs naturally die out.

The flaw in this argument is that abolishing government wouldn’t erase people’s fears of being conquered and oppressed by others. We can see this in real history.

Slave revolts were a pervasive fear of the founding generation. To put it another way, slave owners were afraid that if enslaved people won their freedom, they’d rise up and seek vengeance, massacring their former masters. The only way to prevent that was to keep them in bondage forever. And thus, bigotry and oppression became self-perpetuating, until abolished by outside force.

Considering how tenacious racist ideas are in our world, you might think Smith could have them linger a little, if only to show how bigots find no aid or comfort in his North American Confederacy. But no. He can’t abide the suggestion that his anarcho-capitalist utopia might have any flaws, so he scripts this unbelievable scenario where prejudice simply vanishes overnight.

He goes on to explain how history after this point diverged from ours:

Mexico and Canada enthusiastically join in the “Union” half a century later. With no slavery and no tariff, there’s no Civil War.

History must have some weird elastic logic, though. Hamilton got eighty-sixed, but his malady lingered on, becoming vogue with dispossessed European nobility. Splinter groups continued to clash for years, often violently, over who was really his “legitimate” intellectual heir…. In 1865, while Lysander Spooner presided over a rapidly shrinking national government, a politically shady actor, John Wilkes Booth, plodded through a backwoods tour with an English play, Our North American Cousin, when out of the audience an obscure Hamiltonian lawyer stood and shot the thespian through the head.

If you missed it, Smith groups Abraham Lincoln with those villainous Hamiltonians. (The play he mentions is the one Lincoln was watching when he was assassinated.) For all he claims to detest slavery, that speaks volumes about how he viewed the president who actually emancipated the slaves.

To close out this section, he writes that after his brand of anarcho-capitalism overtook North America, it spread throughout the world:

There’s something resembling World War I, but no trace of the Spanish-American War, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, or New Guinea. And nothing about Karl Marx, Socialism, or Communism; European revolts in the 1840s are called “Gallatinite.” Men first walked on the Moon—with women right beside them in 173 A.L.—1949! And North America fought a bitter war with Russia in 1957. The Czar was finally overthrown.

Since there was never any such thing as communism in Smith’s timeline, this makes it even more implausible that Ayn Rand still exists in this world. (According to the index at the end of the book, she was one of the past presidents of the North American Confederacy and “the first president to travel to the Moon”.) Whatever happened to only people of Native American descent being identical in both realities?

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Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

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New on OnlySky: An era of violence

I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the increasing frequency of political violence in the U.S., and what this tells us about democratic breakdown.

From the Capitol insurrection, to the assassination of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO, to the killing of Charlie Kirk, to ordinary (“ordinary”) school shootings and other mass shootings, America is a violent nation and becoming more so. Democracy was supposed to give the people a means to settle our differences peacefully, but it isn’t working out that way. Instead, more and more people – mostly on the right, although not exclusively – are concluding that change only comes at the barrel of a gun.

Why is democracy giving way to outbursts of violence? Is it the system that’s at fault, conspiring to thwart the will of the voters at every turn, leaving the frustrated and the disaffected feeling as if they have no other choice? Or are voters themselves demanding something impossible, and becoming increasingly angry when they can’t have it?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like member-only posts and a subscriber newsletter:

What’s remarkable is that so much violence is committed by right-wingers—even though conservatives, at the moment, control all three branches of the U.S. government.

They’re seemingly getting everything they’ve always wanted: savage cuts to the safety net, mass deportations of immigrants both legal and not, mass firings of federal employees, curtailing DEI policies, outlawing abortion, rolling back LGBTQ rights, more guns with fewer restrictions. You’d think they’d be happy. And yet, seemingly, the more of their agenda they achieve, the more furious they become.

What this implies is that politico-religious conservatism is a self-defeating philosophy. Whether they realize it or not, conservatives are voting for policies that make their lives worse. They’re getting angrier not despite their success, but because of it. That’s why levels of violence in America keep on rising.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

Failed Rapture prophecies (2025 edition)

I’m so old, I remember when the Rapture was supposed to happen in 2011:

A red and yellow billboard reading: "Judgment Day May 21, 2011 - Cry mightily unto God" with a silhouette of a man praying

This prophetic pratfall was the legacy of Harold Camping, a 20th-century Christian evangelist whose Family Radio broadcast to 150 stations across the United States.

In his later years, Camping made a career of predicting the second coming. First he said it would be in 1994. When that failed, he moved the date to May 21, 2011 based on a convoluted numerological scheme supposedly based on the date of Noah’s flood.

The May 2011 date was the big one. Family Radio sank over $100 million into a promotional campaign. They put up billboards and distributed tracts all over the world urging the masses to repent. Some of his followers were so convinced the end was near, they quit their jobs and spent their savings. I personally encountered at least one devotee spreading the word.

When this failed to come true, Camping announced that it had been a “spiritual” judgment and revised his date to October 21, 2011 for the real, actual, this-time-we-mean-it apocalypse. That one obviously failed as well, and Camping died soon afterward, perplexed and humiliated.

Of course, Camping wasn’t the first. He was just one in a long line of fanatics who’ve been continuously predicting the apocalypse almost every year since the beginning of Christianity.

Before 2011, there was 2007Rapture.com. Before that, there was Edgar Whisenant and his book 88 Reasons Why the Rapture Will Be in 1988, which singled out Rosh Hashanah 1988 as the date. Before that, there was Hal Lindsay and his 1970 book The Late Great Planet Earth.

Before that, there was the 1920 book Millions Now Living Will Never Die. Before that, there was the “Great Disappointment” of 1844. Before that, there was Cotton Mather in 1692.

And you could keep on going back, all the way to the founding generation of Christianity. According to the Bible, Jesus told his contemporaries that some of them would still be alive when he returned to earth (Matthew 16:28, 1 Thessalonians 4:15).

However, fundamentalists never learn their lesson. With the unfounded confidence of faith, they keep on predicting the end, undaunted by the prophetic blunders of their predecessors.

Now there’s a preacher from South Africa, Joshua Mhlakela, who aspires to be the latest to join the list of false prophets:

Speaking on the Cettwinz TV YouTube channel, Mhlakela said in a video that has gone viral: “The Rapture is upon us. Whether you are ready or not.

“I saw Jesus sitting on his throne. And I could hear him very loud and clear saying, ‘I am coming soon.'”

The pastor added, “He said to me on the 23rd and 24th of September 2025, ‘I will come back to the Earth.'”

According to the preacher, Jesus’s return would be announced by the Feast of Trumpets, which would ring in the Rapture and Judgment Day.

If you want to see the prophecy in his own words, here it is:

God took me to see the future and then he brought me back. And then in heaven in a throne room, I see Jesus sitting on his throne and I could hear him very loud and clear: “I am coming soon.” And to the people who are listening, please pay attention to what I’m going to say. He says to me, on the 23rd and the 24th, 2025, I will come to take my church.

Yes, this is the same date that Whisenant proclaimed in 1988. Christians seem to have an affection for Rosh Hashanah.

Despite several erroneous reports to the contrary, Mhlakela isn’t a pastor or leader of any church. He’s just an ordinary believer who claims to have had a divine revelation. (He says he was an assistant pastor at his church for several years, until he resigned to spread the prophetic word.)

For whatever reason, this claim struck a nerve on social media. A number of Christians on TikTok claimed to have had dreams or visions confirming Mhlakela’s date – spawning the so-called RaptureTok hashtag.

It’s tricky to find good examples, because many of the videos on this hashtag are from nonbelievers mocking or parodying it. But some are definitely sincere. For example, here’s a Christian who’s stocking her house with emergency supplies, together with handwritten laminated cards explaining the Rapture, for the benefit of those left behind who’ll find them after she disappears:

@stopwiththebuttholecramp Preparing for the left behind. What are you doing? Let’s try to save as many souls as we can while we are gone. #Christian #missingpeople #christiantiktok #help #jesus ? original sound – Melissa Johnston

Here’s another who’s put out several videos about the date, including one in which she claims her 3-year-old son started speaking in Hebrew as confirmation (obviously, he’s just repeating things he heard his parents saying):

@romans.ten.9through11 My last video. See you in the clouds my brothers and sisters. Jesus please use my account and the remaining videos for YOUR glory and YOUR will. I plead your blood over it and speak a hedge of protection over it that no weapon formed against this content will prosper. Please water every seed that has been planted throughout the time you’ve used it. In Jesus name. Amen. #JESUSISCOMING #rapture #alienabduction #whathappenedtoallthepeople ? original sound – romans.ten.9through11

And a third, who hedges her bets a bit about the date (“pretty much any day now… if not next week, by the end of the year, most definitely”) but nevertheless believes the Rapture is so close, Christians should take the PIN lock off their smartphones, so that converts who find them afterward (in the empty piles of clothes) will be able to use them:

@kingdomwealth_christina I literally just thought of this today! I still have to put together letters for people. I rounded up all of the Bibles in my house and any book that helps explain scripture. Jesus is going to come and get his bride very very soon! ##pretrib##raptureready##rapture2025##jesussaves ? original sound – Kingdom Wealth | Christina

This prophecy stuff sounds appealing, so I’m going to try my hand at it. To be clear, I’m an atheist. I don’t claim to have special revelation or privileged access to the will of a god. However, I can make a few predictions with confidence.

The Rapture isn’t going to happen on September 23, 2025, or September 24, 2025, or any date thereafter. On the predicted date, people will wake up, eat breakfast, drive to work, do chores, care for their families, and fall asleep, just as people have been doing for thousands of years. There may well be wars, earthquakes and other tragedies, but life as we know it won’t come to an end. The sun will keep shining, the earth will keep spinning, and the dead won’t rise from their graves. No one is going to float up into the sky to meet Jesus.

When this date passes and nothing happens, the true believers will respond in one of three ways. Some will delete their videos, try to erase the evidence of their failure, and go on as if nothing had happened. Others will move the goalposts and announce that the prophecy came true as predicted, but in a “spiritual” sense that’s invisible to skeptics and scoffers. Still others will pick a new date and start all over again.

Few, if any, will forthrightly announce that they blundered. None will discard their foolish religious beliefs and choose a more rational philosophy in the future.

Belief in the second coming and the apocalypse is a kind of religious narcissism. It’s founded in the belief that my generation is special – that all of history up to this point, all the believers who lived and died, were just preparation for me, and that I’m one of the chosen ones who’ll live to see the culmination of it all. They think the Bible passages about the apocalypse are for them in a way that didn’t apply to any previous generation.

Because of this self-deluding arrogance, they’re blind to history. The unbroken string of failures racked up by all the past believers who thought the same thing doesn’t give them any humility, nor daunt them at all – just as their example won’t daunt the next generation of believers who’ll start the cycle all over again, a few years down the line, once this prediction has faded into history’s dust.

The Probability Broach: Villainous authoritarians

A close-up of the founders' signatures on the Constitution

The Probability Broach, chapter 9

L. Neil Smith has a serious grudge against the Constitution.

It’s not just that he disagrees with its goals, as you’d expect from an anarchist. Like a good sovereign citizen, he claims the whole thing was illegal. He denounces it as a grand conspiracy led by Alexander Hamilton. As Smith’s narrator Win Bear tells it:

He and his Federalists had shoved down the country’s throat their “Constitution,” a charter for a centralist superstate replacing the thirteen minigovernments that had been operating under the inefficient but tolerable Articles of Confederation. Adopted during an illegal and unrepresentative meeting in Philadelphia, originally authorized only to revise the Articles, this new document amounted to a bloodless coup d’état.

Funny—as near as I remembered, these were the same events that had happened in my own world. But in the eyes of my new friends, historic figures like John Jay and James Madison became villainous authoritarians. Of seventy-four delegates chosen to attend the Constitutional Convention, nineteen declined, and sixteen of those present refused to sign. Of the thirty-nine remaining, many of whom signed only reluctantly, just six had put their names to the original Declaration of Independence.

It’s true that not all the delegates to the Constitutional Convention were willing to sign, but that’s not surprising. It’s easy to reach agreement that an existing system isn’t working; it’s harder to agree on what to replace it with. Governing always involves compromise, and no political system makes everyone happy. That’s not a challenge unique to America, but something that every band of revolutionaries throughout history has discovered.

Smith roars that the Constitutional Convention was an “illegal” meeting, but he omits a relevant fact: the delegates met to revise the Articles of Confederation because it was very clear that they weren’t working.

Under the Articles, America was more like a loose alliance of thirteen separate nations. There was a national Congress, but it had no power to levy taxes. To fund anything it voted for, it had to beg the states to contribute.

This created a Prisoner’s Dilemma situation. Each state had a selfish incentive to sit out and let the others do the unpopular work of raising revenue—and because they all reasoned the same way, almost none of them ever did. In 1786, Congress requested $3.8 million from the states to pay national obligations, and got… $663.

The early American republic was chronically broke and hamstrung. It couldn’t pay the debts it had taken on while fighting for independence. It couldn’t even pay its own soldiers.

Smith puts huge importance on the Whiskey Rebellion. But there were other, equally serious crises that he ignores because they don’t fit with his worldview that blames centralized government for all evils.

In March 1783, in the so-called Newburgh Conspiracy, officers in the Continental Army were enraged over not receiving their promised pay and pensions—in some cases, for years on end. They circulated a letter hinting at plans to overthrow Congress. George Washington personally intervened to defuse the conspiracy.

But he couldn’t stop the next one: the Pennsylvania Mutiny of June 1783, when Congress was surrounded, mobbed and threatened by hundreds of angry, rebellious soldiers demanding their promised pay. They had to flee Philadelphia, the seat of government at the time.

Last but not least, there’s Shays’ Rebellion. It was an uprising of rural Massachusetts farmers, many of them veterans of the Revolutionary War, who were angry about state taxation when they themselves hadn’t been paid for their service. They attacked local courts, preventing them from meeting, and tried to storm a federal armory and seize its weapons to overthrow the government. Once again, the federal government was helpless to intervene. An alliance of private citizens paid out of their own pockets to fund a private militia to suppress the rebellion.

Meanwhile, America faced pressure from foreign powers. Spain, which controlled the Mississippi River, closed it to American navigation—strangling trade from western regions—and pressured Americans to swear allegiance to Spain in exchange for access. Once again, there was nothing the U.S. government could do.

These repeated crises made it clear that the fledgling American state was too weak to govern, and risked being torn apart by internal uprising or subjugated and carved up by European powers. By the time of the Constitutional Convention, there was widespread recognition that something better was needed. It wasn’t a sinister conspiracy, as Smith imagines.

Smith’s fuming about a “coup d’etat” or the Constitution being “shoved down the country’s throat” ignores another obvious fact: the delegates to the Constitutional Convention didn’t force a new government on the nation at gunpoint. How could they have?

There was no skullduggery or subterfuge. The new Constitution was presented and debated in public over the course of several years. It took until 1790, but all thirteen states ratified it democratically. To assuage some holdouts’ concerns, the Bill of Rights was added—arguably a step up from the Articles, which had no such thing!

After the Constitution was ratified, Smith’s alternate history proceeded the same as ours, until the Whiskey Rebellion. We’ve already heard about Albert Gallatin, and he makes another appearance in this chapter.

In 1794, a Pennsylvania gentleman stepped into the fray. A former Swiss financier, Albert Gallatin disapproved of the way Alexander Hamilton handled the nation’s checkbook. He organized and led the farmers and began convincing federal soldiers they were fighting on the wrong side…

Thus “fortified,” the 80-proof revolution marched on Philadelphia. Washington went to the wall, Hamilton fled to Prussia and was killed in a duel in 1804. Gallatin was proclaimed president.

Smith acknowledges (vaguely) that the Articles of Confederation gave rise to some problems, which he tries to address as follows:

Economic problems that had precipitated the Constitution Conspiracy were solved with a new currency, backed by untold acres of land in the undeveloped Northwest Territories.

…Gallatin’s land certificates were redeemed, the last money ever issued by a United States government. He served five four-year terms in all, and lived long enough to see his own peculiar brand of anarchism begin spreading throughout the world.

There’s a lot of furious handwaving in this passage. I’ll limit myself to pointing out the top two problems.

In Smith’s history, America’s Revolutionary War debts were settled by a new currency, backed by land in the Northwest Territories. Except… the Northwest Territories were occupied at that time—by the British—who refused to relinquish them because, again, the Articles of Confederation government was shirking its financial obligations under the Treaty of Paris that ended the war!

Smith expects us to believe that the British crown would accept land they already controlled as payment for the debt we owed them.

In reality, the British didn’t withdraw from those territories until the 1794 Jay Treaty, negotiated by that villainous authoritarian John Jay. (There were also Native Americans living there—more about this next week.)

Second, to re-raise a point I made before: How can a currency be backed by land, unless there’s a central government that can protect and adjudicate claims of ownership?

In the anarchist society that Smith envisions, there’d be nothing to stop crowds of claim-jumpers and squatters from taking over territory that other people thought they owned. Any currency whose value was predicated on being able to redeem it for parcels of land would rapidly become worthless.

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New on OnlySky: Will China save the world from climate change?

I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the looming disaster of climate change, and how many nations are decarbonizing at the scale required. Arguably, there’s only one – and that one is China.

In the past few years, China has been installing more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. If we have any chance of saving the planet from the worst outcomes of the climate crisis, it may well be because of Beijing. And, lest I be mistaken, that’s not what we should want! It’s infinitely preferable that the future be written by a liberal democracy, not an authoritarian one-party state.

But the U.S. has ceded its leadership role in world affairs, very likely for good. We’re in the throes of vicious anti-scientific propaganda that’s robbed us of the will to act. Meanwhile, China’s rulers seem to be among the few who recognize the scope of the problem and are willing to do something about it. The shocking thing isn’t that they’re taking action, but that so few other countries are showing the same urgency.

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like member-only posts and a subscriber newsletter:

In the first half of 2025, China deployed more solar power than the rest of the world—combined. In that time, humanity as a whole installed 380 gigawatts of new solar capacity, of which China accounted for 256 gigawatts. Almost two-thirds!

This isn’t a fluke, but the continuation of a trend. Similarly, in 2024, the world installed 600 GW of solar power. Of that number, China accounted for 329 GW. The U.S. was far behind in second place, with a measly 50 GW. Most other countries installed far less.

The scale of China’s ambition can be seen in the desert of northwestern Xinjiang, where they’ve constructed the biggest solar farm in the world. It’s almost 33,000 acres, about the size of Paris, with a total capacity of 3.5 gigawatts. It’s big enough to power a small country by itself.

This massive build-out of renewables is having an effect. Studies suggest that China’s carbon emissions are beginning to fall, without any reduction in economic activity.

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The Probability Broach: Who lives, who dies, who tells your story

A portrait of Alexander Hamilton

The Probability Broach, chapter 9

Safe and sound (for the moment), Win Bear continues his research into why history unfolded so differently in this anarchist universe:

I hunched over the Telecom, a stranger in a strange land, trying to figure out how we both got so strange. What real differences were there between the Encyclopedia of North America and the smattering of history I could recall?

…What really differed was interpretations.

In 1789, the unlucky year 13 A.L., the Revolution was betrayed. Since 1776, people had been free of kings, free of governments, free to live their own lives. It sounded like a Propertarian’s paradise. Now things were going to be different again: America was headed back—so Lucy and the encyclopedia said—toward slavery.

The fiend responsible for this counter-revolutionary nastiness was Alexander Hamilton, a name Confederates hold in about the same esteem as the word “spittoon.” He and his Federalists had shoved down the country’s throat their “Constitution,” a charter for a centralist superstate replacing the thirteen minigovernments that had been operating under the inefficient but tolerable Articles of Confederation.

Headed back toward slavery? That’s a cringeworthy turn of phrase, given that even in L. Neil Smith’s alternate timeline, America still had real, actual slavery at this point.

“People” most certainly weren’t “free to live their own lives” in that era… unless by “people”, he meant “white men”. As I’ve mentioned, this is a persistent blind spot of his.

We’ll discuss more about the North American Confederacy’s history later, but for now, here’s a quick reminder: In their world, as in ours, the Constitution superceded the Articles of Confederation. The divergence point is the Whiskey Rebellion against the nascent federal government.

In our world, it fizzled out. In the Confederate world, it succeeded. George Washington was executed, the Constitution was scrapped, and the United States government was overthrown, giving rise to an anarchist society.

To hear Smith tell it, centralized government is the source of all evil. Once the Constitution was abolished, America experienced an immediate renaissance – not just technologically, but morally.

A case in point is his treatment of slavery, as told by Win:

Confederate history after the Rebellion was a mishmash of the familiar and the fantastic. Gallatin adopted a new calendar and a system of weights and measures, both devised by Thomas Jefferson.

…Jefferson enjoyed an even more illustrious career than back at home. Fourth president, after Edmond Genêt, he’d almost single-handedly lectured, argued, and shamed the country into giving up slavery, freeing his own slaves in 31 A.L. On the lecture circuits, four years later, an irate reactionary put a nine-inch dagger into his leg, leaving Jefferson with a limp and a cane he carried the rest of his life. They hauled the assassin out with a faceful of pistol lead, as the inventive future president had mounted the rostrum bearing a repeating sidearm of his own design. He finished the speech before he’d see a doctor. Slavery was abolished in 44 A.L., the year Jefferson ascended to the presidency.

Hold on just a minute! I want to hear more about how Thomas Jefferson peacefully talked all slaveholders into freeing their slaves.

Smith doesn’t linger on this. He makes the claim, then hastily segues to a different image – a badass Jefferson blowing an assassin away – almost as if he’s trying to distract readers so we don’t ask for more details. (No surprise we don’t hear any of the actual words of these magically persuasive speeches.)

In our world, defeating slavery took the bloodiest conflict ever fought on American soil. Does Smith expect us to believe that all this death and devastation was unnecessary? Could Abraham Lincoln have prevented the Civil War if only he’d been a better speechwriter?

Smith drastically underestimates how simple it is to convince people to give up racist beliefs, especially racist beliefs they benefit from. He believes that once the right political system is in place, all prejudice will melt away and everyone will lose their desire to dominate others. Ironically, that’s very similar to what communists believe, only in service to more or less the opposite conclusion.

Of course, Smith has to say this, because he’s an anarchist. If people won’t freely make the right choice – for example, if they choose to enslave, oppress or discriminate against others based on race – the only other option is a state or state-like power to compel them. He can’t abide that, so his ideology requires him to believe that bad beliefs are easy to overcome. But his ideology patently clashes with reality.

All libertarians have to grapple with an inconvenient historical truth. The Anti-Federalists – the founders who were most in favor of limited government – didn’t hold this view out of devotion to an abstract concept of liberty. They held this view so that government didn’t interfere with their ability to own slaves.

For example, Patrick Henry – he of “give me liberty or give me death” – was an outspoken opponent of the Constitution. Why? Because he feared that it would give Congress the power to free the slaves:

“They will search that paper, and see if they have power of manumission. And have they not, sir? Have they not power to provide for the general defence and welfare? May they not think that these call for the abolition of slavery? May they not pronounce all slaves free, and will they not be warranted by that power? There is no ambiguous implication, or logical deduction. The paper speaks to the point. They have the power in clear unequivocal terms; and will clearly and certainly exercise it.”

(See also this paper, and this article arguing that the Second Amendment was ratified to protect the legitimacy of slave-patrol militias.)

The enslavers who opposed the Constitution were explicit about their reasoning: With a weak central government, they’d be able to do as they pleased. But a strong central government might one day come under pressure to liberate its enslaved citizens, and would be capable of doing so.

Meanwhile, although Smith loathes Alexander Hamilton for being the architect of strong central government, he did more than most founders to fight slavery.

Hamilton founded the New York Manumission Society, which called for (and achieved) the abolition of slavery in the state. During the American Revolution, he lobbied for enslaved people to be permitted to join the Continental Army in exchange for their freedom.

After the war, he argued that enslaved people who escaped to freedom on the British side shouldn’t be returned to slavery after Britain’s surrender: “as odious and immoral a thing as can be conceived… to bring back to servitude men once made free.” And after the Haitian Revolution, where a slave rebellion succeeded in overthrowing colonial rule and creating a free society – and terrifying the colonizing powers of the Western world – Hamilton was one of the few who advocated trade and diplomatic relations with the new Haitian government.

To be fair, Hamilton didn’t have completely clean hands. Despite his abolitionist advocacy, he married into the wealthy, slaveholding Schuyler family. He also swallowed the pro-slavery clauses of the Constitution to win Southern support for ratification.

Given how deeply slavery permeated the early American economy, none of the founders were free of its taint. However, it’s fair to say that Hamilton was more anti-slavery than most – both in his words and his deeds.

As for Thomas Jefferson, he talked a good game about ending slavery. He wanted to put anti-slavery language in the Declaration of Independence, though it was deleted at the insistence of slaveholding delegates. As president, he signed a law banning the international slave trade, which he called “violations of human rights which have been so long continued on the unoffending inhabitants of Africa”.

Nevertheless, when it came to the most obvious thing he could have done – freeing his own slaves, both for their sake and as an example to others – Jefferson failed. He didn’t even emancipate them in his will.

For all his rhetoric, he was acutely aware that the wealthy, plantation-owning class of which he was a member depended on the labor of enslaved people to support them and enable their aristocratic lifestyle. If slavery were abolished, that economic system built on exploitation would collapse. That was a sacrifice he wasn’t willing to make.

This fact doesn’t sit well with L. Neil Smith. So he rewrites history to conform to what he thinks “should” have happened.

He erases Alexander Hamilton’s anti-slavery advocacy so as to more easily villainize him. He recasts Jefferson the slaveholder as a principled hero of abolition. In doing so, he bulldozes the messy, inconvenient facts of real history, so he can put all the “good” people on his side and all the “bad” people on the other side.

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New on OnlySky: Cities without cars

I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the curse of car dependence, and whether there’s another way for us to live.

Middle-class American life is built around the car. The assumption is that everyone owns a private vehicle and uses it to drive everywhere they go. Alternative methods of transit, like bike lanes, mass transit, and even sidewalks and crosswalks for pedestrians, are an afterthought at best. When this assumption is baked into the layout of towns and cities, the result is a self-fulfilling prophecy. We make driving easy and everything else all but impossible, so of course most people choose to drive. The consequences are pollution, gridlock, deaths in traffic accidents, and all the other ills of car culture.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. We used to have walkable, human-scale neighborhoods, and if we so choose, we can start building them again. In a suburb in Arizona, there’s an urban experiment in progress which aims to prove that life without cars isn’t just viable, but better.

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like member-only posts and a subscriber newsletter:

When you look at places where people want to live, they look very different.

These desirable places aren’t sprawling suburbs fed by rivers of highway traffic, or impersonal strip malls and chain stores, or wastelands of concrete with buildings set far apart from each other.

They’re towns and neighborhoods that are built on a human scale. They’re charming, character-rich, and most important, walkable.

They have public green spaces, like parks and gardens, with shade trees and fountains. They have pedestrian-friendly boulevards where people can stroll, and public squares and plazas where they can sit. The boulevards and the plazas are lined with buildings that have small businesses like cafes, restaurants or bookshops on the ground floor and living space above.

We haven’t built places like this in a long time. But in Arizona, the builders of Culdesac are trying to start doing it again.

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