The New York Times Magazine has a very long article that asks the question, being posed in many quarters, as to whether we are in an AI bubble. The argument that we are hinges on the massive amounts of money that is being spent on data centers and computers estimated by Cory Doctorow to be currently running at about $1.4 trillion while the AI companies are getting revenues of only about $50 billion from subscriptions to their services. So where is the rest of the money coming from? From borrowing, as rich investors pour money into these AI companies in the belief that they will grow rapidly and be profitable at some point. This belief drives up the stock prices. As Doctorow says:
I’m pretty baffled that there’s people who say it’s not a bubble. Let’s just run the numbers again. Trillion dollars in expenditure this year, over $1.4 trillion total, $50 billion revenue. Seven companies, the magnificent seven that are 35% of the S&P 500. Six of them lose money on AI, and the seventh one makes money from the other six. [The ‘other six’ are Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Anthropic and the seventh is the chip maker Nvidia – MS]
…That’s Nvidia, yes. They’re all passing around the same hundred-billion-dollar IOU really fast and pretending it’s in all of their bank accounts at once. The assets depreciate really quickly. They amortize those data centers and the GPUs in them over five years. They actually replace them every two to three years. The replacements, pretty intense.
…GPUs, data centers, and the AI that runs on them, right? They’re saying that these things are going to last them about five years. The reason that matters is if you spend $1 trillion on stuff that’s only going to last five years, then in five years, you’re going to need another $1 trillion if you want to stay in business at least. Nvidia is actually doing some pretty amazing things with new generations of chips every year.
One of the ways they’re getting such performance out of these chips every year is they’re throwing away one of the principles that normally constrains new technology manufacturers, which is backwards compatibility. These new chips, they have really different heat dissipation, networking, power consumption, and often you can’t put them in the same building. You need to basically tear the data center down to the foundation’s lab and build another one for the next generation of chips.
…These are not durable assets in this model. A third of the stock market, their assets depreciating every three years. They’re spending $1 trillion a year. They’re making $50 billion a year.

