It’s derecho time

A derecho is a widespread, long-lived, straight-line wind storm that is associated with a fast-moving group of severe thunderstorms known as a mesoscale convective system. Derechos cause hurricane-force winds, heavy rains, and flash floods. In many cases, convection-induced winds take on a bow echo form of squall line, often forming beneath an area of diverging upper tropospheric winds, and in a region of both rich low-level moisture and warm-air advection.

We were hit hard last night — our windows were rattling and banging with hail and savage rain smashing into our house, our basement was flooded, and the cat was stricken with mortal terror and freaking out in the house. We lost power briefly, and I notice some of the milkweed Mary is cultivating was smashed. No serious damage was done, fortunately.

Except…it’s predicted that we’ll probably get another one tonight.

Israel is not a lawful state

Growing up, did any of you hear some variation of the line, “You have to eat all your [broccoli][peas][lutefisk], there are children starving in [China][India][Africa]!” We were supposed to be grateful for the plenty that we are lucky to have, and feel pity for all the blameless children who weren’t so fortunate. In my case, it didn’t work particularly well (I was well aware that that pile of soggy broccoli on my plate wasn’t going to be scooped up and sent to China), but I did learn to feel guilt that we weren’t sharing with those in need.

Not everyone learned to feel that guilt, I guess. Some seem to think it’s fine to starve children.

Evidence gathered by Amnesty International demonstrates how over a month since the introduction of its militarized aid distribution system, Israel has continued to use starvation of civilians as a weapon of war against Palestinians in the occupied Gaza Strip and to deliberately impose conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction as part of its ongoing genocide.

Heartbreaking testimonies gathered from medical staff, parents of children hospitalized for malnutrition and displaced Palestinians struggling to survive paint a horrifying picture of acute levels of starvation and desperation in Gaza. Their accounts provide further evidence of the catastrophic suffering caused by Israel’s ongoing restrictions on life-saving aid and its deadly militarized aid scheme coupled with mass forced displacement, relentless bombardment and destruction of life-sustaining infrastructure.

Even worse, the food aid stations are set up as bait, drawing out parents of starving children to be gunned down by Israeli snipers.

Gaza’s Health Ministry reports that as of July 24, Israeli forces have killed 59,587 people and injured 143,498, including 8,363 deaths since a surge in Israeli strikes began in March 2025.

Since May, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed while trying to access food, most near aid distribution sites run by the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, according to the U.N. Human Rights Office. The GHF has rejected the U.N.’s figures as “false and exaggerated.”

UNICEF estimates that 17,000 children are among those killed since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel, with another 33,000 injured. Speaking at a U.N. Security Council meeting on July 16, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said the toll is like “a whole classroom of children killed every day for nearly two years.”

Meanwhile, Israel, with the assistance of the US, is intentionally starving children.

A third of Palestinians in Gaza are going without food for days at a time, Smith said. He said about 100,000 women and children were suffering severe acute malnutrition in the territory.

OCHA, the U.N. humanitarian affairs office, reports that malnutrition has risen among children under age 5 in Gaza. Of more than 56,000 who’ve been screened, 9% were assessed as being “acute malnourished” in the first two weeks of July, up from 6% last month and 2.4% in February. In Gaza City, 16% of 15,000 children were found to suffer from acute malnutrition, quadruple the percentage from February.

Even before the war, an estimated 97% of Gaza’s drinking water was contaminated by the sea, sewage and farm runoff and was therefore considered unsafe. Since October 2023, Israeli airstrikes against critical infrastructure such as wells, desalination units, sewage pumps, tanks and pipelines have caused the system to collapse, according to Human Rights Watch.

I no longer support the right of the Jewish state of Israel to exist. Dismantle that horrible government and turn the entire country over to Palestinians, with independent UN monitoring to prevent retaliation. Although, to be honest, I think some retaliation is necessary for justice to prevail — Netanyahu, for instance, ought to spend the rest of his disgusting life in prison.

Additionally, it’s committing genocide. I don’t care to hear from people who are splitting hairs to deny that Israel is a genocidal monster of a state.

Two leading human rights organisations based in Israel, B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights, say Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and the country’s western allies have a legal and moral duty to stop it.

In reports published on Monday, the two groups said Israel had targeted civilians in Gaza only because of their identity as Palestinians over nearly two years of war, causing severe and in some cases irreparable damage to Palestinian society.

A number of international and Palestinian groups have already described the war as genocidal, but reports from two of Israel-Palestine’s most respected human rights organisations, who have for decades documented systemic abuses, is likely to add to pressure for action.

I missed the TCCSA debate until now. Nothing was lost.

A while back, I mentioned that the Twin Cities Creation Science Association was doing an online creation/evolution debate on the 26th and that maybe I’d tune in and see what they had to say. I didn’t. I knew the creationist, Brian Lauer, would natter on about the kinds of arguments Kent Hovind makes, and that he’d misrepresent the science, and that he’d do nothing but trot out oft-refuted nonsense, and I decided to wait until today, when I could play it back at a faster speed and skip over the stupid bits, of which there were many.

Lauer turned out to be worse than I thought. He’s an acolyte of Walt Brown’s hydroplate theory, the idea the “fountains of the deep” blasted massive amounts of material during the flood that shot out into space, so when scientists find amino acids in meteorites, that’s because they all originated on Earth, and were subsequently launched skyward during the flood catastrophe. There isn’t a single crackpot explanation some fringe doofus could mention that Lauer wouldn’t bring out in the debate…and then he’d cherry-pick headlines from scientific sources to show that science was in the Bible.

Mark Reid, his opponent, was batting these claims down as fast as Lauer would make them, but nothing was penetrating the creationist’s smug smirk. I was falling asleep when, surprisingly, my name was brought up, at about the 1:36:00 minute.

Oh boy! This was Bob Enyart’s Trochlear Challenge, where he demanded that I explain the evolutionary origin of a specific ocular muscle. Lauer brought it up so he could crow about the fact that I said “I don’t know”.

OK, but Enyart has challenged me to explain how this feature evolved. I have an answer. It’s easy.

I don’t know.

I don’t see any obvious obstacle to an arrangement of muscles evolving, but I don’t know the details of this particular set. And there’s actually a very good reason for that.

This is a case where you have to step back from the creationist and look at the big picture. Don’t get bogged down in the details. Take a look at the whole context of the question.

We don’t know exactly how this evolved because all living vertebrates, with the exception of the lamprey, have the same arrangement of extra-ocular muscles. This is a primitive and very highly conserved condition, with no extant intermediates. We’ve seen the arrangement of these muscles in 400 million year old placoderm fossils, and they’re the same; these muscles probably evolved 450 million or more years ago, and we have no record of any intermediate state. So I don’t know, and neither does anyone else.

But that’s where we have to look at the big picture: Bob Enyart, a raving loon and young earth creationist who thinks the whole planet is less than 10,000 years old, is asking me to recount the details of an event that occurred almost half a billion years ago. I should think it’s enough to shatter his position and show that he’s wrong to simply note that however it evolved, it happened in animals 75,000 times older than he claims the planet is. Has he even noticed this little problem with his question?

How nice of Lauer to remember part of what I said. But as was typical of all of his arguments, he only mentioned part of the answer, the part he could twist to fit his beliefs, and not the whole of the answer, which shot down the greater YEC thesis.

I haven’t encountered Lauer until now, and he’s based in St Cloud, where my son lives. He’s one of the many shames of Minnesota.

True superheroes can resist the malign influence of plague rats

If alien invaders wanted to take over Earth, the most efficient strategy wouldn’t be to bomb things, or zap them with lasers; it would be to sow the planet with custom viruses that wipe out those pesky humans. To be really effective, they might want to indoctrinate the people psychologically to avoid basic prophylactic measures (this has already become a conspiracy theory). SMBC plays out this notion to its logical conclusion, and postulates that the triumphant survivors of this alien assault would be kindergarten teachers.

I support this conclusion. I think we ought to give all kindergarten and preschool teachers a massive raise, or at least issue biohazard gear to them.

Everything he touches turns to crap

Elon Musk has been keeping a lower profile lately, as the bad news is catching up to all of his businesses. Exploiters gotta exploit, though, so he has been able to open a new business in a domain he knows nothing about: fast food. His Hollywood restaurant is called the Tesla Diner.

It opened on Monday at 4:20pm, and you can tell that that was Elon’s idea. It features a bank of Tesla chargers, and if you order your food from your Tesla, you get priority on your service. I guess you better buy a Tesla so you can get slightly faster delivery of an overpriced burger. I don’t think this will rescue Tesla.

As for the food…

Jake Hook, who runs a Los Angeles-focused “Diner Theory” social media account, had described the Tesla Diner menu to me as “all over the place”, with a combination of “very fast food shlocky” items combined with sandwiches made with “bread from Tartine”, the luxury California bakery. The diner also offers a mix of “own the libs” and “we are the libs” options: on the one hand, “Epic Bacon”, four strips of bacon are served with sauces as a meatfluencer alternative to french fries, and on the other, avocado toast and matcha lattes. There was a kale salad served in a cardboard Cybertruck: welcome to southern California.

I’ll pass. The quick summary is this:

But the billionaire CEO tends to make big promises and not quite fulfill them. That appeared to be true even for a tiny burger joint.

It’s what he does.

Avi Loeb makes stuff up about another space rock

3I/ATLAS

Avi Loeb, the ridiculous Harvard astronomer who claimed that the interstellar object ʻOumuamua was a technological artifact, has battened on a different rock that was discovered in July called 3I/ATLAS as the object of his alien fantasies. He’s published his explanation in an in-house journal (which is not peer-reviewed) in a paper titled Is the Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Alien Technology?. The answer is “no”, but Avi really wants it to be “yes.” To give him a chance to make his argument, here’s the abstract.

At this early stage of its passage through our Solar System, 3I/ATLAS, the recently discovered interstellar interloper, has displayed various anomalous characteristics, determined from photometric and astrometric observations. As largely a pedagogical exercise, in this paper we present additional analysis into the astrodynamics of 3I/ATLAS, and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the ’Dark Forest’ resolution to the ’Fermi Paradox’. We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005%. Furthermore the low retrograde tilt of 3I/ATLAS’s orbital plane to the ecliptic offers various benefits to an Extra-terrestrial Intelligence (ETI), since it allows the object access to our planet with relative impunity. The eclipse by the Sun from Earth of 3I/ATLAS at perihelion, would allow it to conduct a clandestine reverse Solar Oberth Manoeuvre, an optimal high-thrust strategy for interstellar spacecraft to brake and stay bound to the Sun. An optimal intercept of Earth would entail an arrival in late November/early December of 2025, and also, a non-gravitational acceleration of ∼ 5.9 × 10−5 au day−2, normalized at 1 au from the Sun, would indicate an intent to intercept the planet Jupiter, not far off its path, and a strategy to rendezvous with it after perihelion.

The paper is full of the technical details about the orbital mechanics of this object. It’s unpleasantly dry and boring, with occasional insertions of his wild speculations. Fortunately, he also has a blog post titled Is the Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Alien Technology? which is enriched for the Loeb lunacy, so I’ll mainly write about that.

Finding a big rock or comet of interstellar origin is not a revolutionary discovery — it’s interesting, but not something that is necessarily indicative that aliens are hitching a ride on it. His justification for suggesting that it’s an alien artifact are tenuous and based entirely on speculations about its trajectory. For instance, it’s approaching on roughly the ecliptic plane.

The retrograde orbital plane (defined by the orbital angular momentum vector) of 3I/ATLAS around the Sun lies within 5 degrees of that of Earth — the so-called ecliptic plane. The likelihood for that coincidence out of all random orientations is 0.2%.

So it’s unlikely that a rock flying through interstellar space would have the particular approach angle that this one has. But wouldn’t any specific trajectory be unlikely? So what?

Another coincidence is that it’s going to pass sorta close to Venus, Mars, and Jupiter.

For its orbital parameters, 3I/ATLAS is synchronized to approach unusually close to Venus (0.65au where 1au is the Earth-Sun separation), Mars (0.19au) and Jupiter (0.36au), with a cumulative probability of 0.005% relative to orbits with the same orbital parameters but a random arrival time.

Therefore it might be a probe that’s sent here to inspect the planets. It’s checking us out!

You might be thinking that zooming by Venus, Mars, and Jupiter is fine, but what about Earth? It’s not coming anywhere near us, which is evidence that it is a probe.

3I/ATLAS achieves perihelion on the opposite side of the Sun relative to Earth. This could be intentional to avoid detailed observations from Earth-based telescopes when the object is brightest or when gadgets are sent to Earth from that hidden vantage point.

So it’s checking us out, but specifically avoiding being detected by us. Convenient.

But the aliens must be fascinated by us! So he postulates that 3I/ATLAS will fire up its engines and change its trajectory out of our sight, on the other side of the sun, so it can intercept the Earth.

The near alignment of the retrograde trajectory of 3I/ATLAS with the ecliptic plane offers various benefits to an extraterrestrial intelligence, since it allows a spacecraft to access Earth with relative impunity. The eclipse of 3I/ATLAS by the Sun at perihelion for observers at Earth, would allow a spacecraft to conduct a clandestine reverse Solar Oberth maneuver, an optimal high-thrust strategy for interstellar spacecraft to brake and stay bound to the Sun. An optimal intercept of Earth would entail an arrival in late November or early December of 2025. Detection of a non-gravitational acceleration could also indicate an intent to intercept Jupiter, not far off the path of 3I/ATLAS, and a strategy to rendezvous with it after perihelion.

Note that this kind of maneuvering would suggest that 3I/ATLAS is an alien artifact, but it has not been observed. He can’t use a hypothetical motion that has not been seen as evidence that the object is capable of maneuvering. All of his evidence that 3I/ATLAS is an artifact is about remarkable changes in trajectory that have not been observed.

He has NOTHING to support his hypothesis that 3I/ATLAS is alien technology! The idea is that if it suddenly changes its path and approaches Earth, then it must be driven by some novel propulsive force. And, yeah, if a bunch of little green men pop out of it and use flying saucers to visit us, then at last Avi Loeb will be vindicated.

But of course, he does not predict that.

Our paper is contingent on a remarkable but testable hypothesis that 3I/ATLAS is a functioning technological artifact, to which I and my two co-authors do not necessarily ascribe.

So he does not predict that, but if it happens, he’s staking his claim on it. Very cheesy. He’s going to have a future as a television psychic, vague and making predictions so broad that they can cover all eventualities.

But there’s more! He wants us to prepare for the alien invasion!

1. The consequences, should the hypothesis turn out to be correct, could potentially be dire for humanity, and would possibly require defensive measures to be undertaken (though these might prove futile).

2. The hypothesis is an interesting exercise in its own right, and is fun to explore, irrespective of its likely validity.

He doesn’t actually believe 3I/ATLAS is an alien artifact, but we’d better start preparing defensive measures (what would those be, I wonder? Like maybe back in the 15th century someone should have suggested to the native Americans to prepare defensive measures.)

And no, it’s not an interesting exercise. He also admits that his speculation are a pedagogical exercise, and that it is probably just a comet.

Our paper is largely a pedagogical exercise, with interesting realizations worthy of a record in the scientific literature. By far, the most likely outcome will be that 3I/ATLAS is a completely natural interstellar object, probably a comet, and we await the astronomical data to support this likely origin.

He went ahead and spread his unfounded hyperbole, though. The story has made it to the NY Post, and you can guess what the headline was: ‘Possibly hostile’ alien threat detected in unknown interstellar object, a shocking new study claims.

I have to give some credit to the NY Post, though — they actually talked to real astronomers and got their opinion of Loeb’s hypothesis.

“All evidence points to this being an ordinary comet that was ejected from another solar system, just as countless billions of comets have been ejected from our own solar system,” added Samantha Lawler, an astronomer at the University of Regina in Canada who studies solar system dynamics, Live Science reported.

“Astronomers all around the world have been thrilled at the arrival of 3I/ATLAS, collaborating to use advanced telescopes to learn about this visitor,” Chris Lintott, an astronomer at the University of Oxford who helped simulate 3I/ATLAS’s galactic origins, told Live Science. “Any suggestion that it’s artificial is nonsense on stilts, and is an insult to the exciting work going on to understand this object.”

That ought to be the take-away on this story, that it’s “nonsense on stilts,” and it ought to diminish Avi Loeb’s already tattered reputation.

A racist, union-busting, back-stabbing thug died the other day

I don’t feel like commenting on his death, so I’ll let Andre the Giant speak for me.

ANDRE THE GIANT “I’don’t like to speak badly of people. I have grown up thinking and being told that if you cannot say something nice about someone, you should not say anything at all. But I must break that rule in this case because I hate Hulk Hogan very much. He is a big ugly goon and | want to squash his face.”

Enough said.

Nightmare scenario

There is an app called Tea which purports to be a tool to protect women’s safety — it allows women to share info about the men they’ve been dating.

Tea launched back in 2023 but this week skyrocketed to the top of the U.S. Apple App Store, Business Insider reported. The app lets women anonymously post photos of men, along with stories of their alleged experience with them, and ask others for input. It has some similarities to the ‘Are We Dating The Same Guy?’ Facebook groups that 404 Media previously covered.

“Are we dating the same guy? Ask our anonymous community of women to make sure your date is safe, not a catfish, and not in a relationship,” the app’s page on the both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store reads.

When creating an account, users are required to upload a selfie, which Tea says it uses to determine whether the user is a woman or not. In our own tests, after uploading a selfie the app may say a user is put into a waitlist for verification that can last 17 hours, suggesting many people are trying to sign up at the moment.

I’m already dubious — they use a photo of the applicant to determine their sex? That’s sloppy, and I can see many opportunities for false positives and false negatives.

But that’s not the big problem. The Tea database got hacked…by 4chan.

Yes, if you sent Tea App your face and drivers license, they doxxed you publicly! No authentication, no nothing. It’s a public bucket, a post on 4chan providing details of the vulnerability reads. DRIVERS LICENSES AND FACE PICS! GET THE FUCK IN HERE BEFORE THEY SHUT IT DOWN!

Congratulations. Your personal info has just been delivered to the worst collection of slimy sleazebags on the internet.

I’m just shocked that this app went live without the most rigorous evaluation of its security. You’re collecting scans of driver’s licenses with selfie photos, with only the most rudimentary precautions? What else? Social security numbers, bank accounts?

Stephen Meyer is the guy in the red sweater

I’m sure we’ve all felt this way before — some smug know-nothing confronts you with a dilemma out of his own imagining, and then expects you to applaud and recognize the brilliance of his insight.

That guy in the red sweater is every creationist on the planet.

It’s amusing to imagine playing along, but even better is when a scientist replies with dumbfounded incredulity. I found an example of that, but I’m not going to address it myself, because it’s on the topic of physics and cosmology, and I have only a superficial knowledge of the subject, so I’d only be able to say “I don’t know” if queried on the details. This video, Roger Penrose confronts creationist critic Stephen Meyer, is wonderfully satisfying.

Stephen Meyer is fond of pontificating on the origins of the universe, and he often claims that physicists like Hawking and Penrose are supporting his ideas about the Big Bang, and singularities, and fine tuning — it’s annoying because he doesn’t actually understand what he’s saying, but loves to quote sciencey-sounding fragments that make you think physics is pro-intelligent design. In that 20 minute video, they show clips of Meyer chattering about physics with Christian apologists like Sean McDowell, intercut with Roger Penrose replying.

He’s usually saying “that makes no sense” or “that’s wrong” before explaining what he actually wrote or discussing the details of his theory. I’m not going to discuss any of the details of Penrose’s CCC theory, because I’m afraid he’ll then turn around and make a video titled “Roger Penrose debunks biologist critic PZ Myers”. It could happen. Watch the whole video and see what you think.

Best outcome: Stephen Meyer shuts the fuck up and stops distorting Penrose’s physics.

P.S. Angela Collier rips into billionaires who think they can use AI to solve deep problems using “vibe physics”. It’s the same problem: poseurs who think they can skip all the hard work and math and go straight to their Nobel prize.

An exciting new opportunity!

I just got invited to join a site for “influencers”, and I’m so enthused. I never imagined that an OnlyFans-like site would send me a personal invitation to participate.

Hi PZ,

I’m reaching out on behalf of Top4Fans, a subscription-based platform that’s a strong alternative to OnlyFans. Our goal is to help you boost your earnings, save time, and benefit from personalized support tailored to your needs.

We’d love to offer you a custom collaboration, with the possibility of a paid partnership, depending on your profile and level of engagement.

I took a look at some examples from their site.

Should I join? Would you pay to subscribe to pictures of my feet or my tushie? I have some doubts.