I am notorious for making wrong predictions in elections. But even given that poor track record, my predictions for the mid-term elections yesterday were spectacularly bad, since I said that results would not live up to the optimistic predictions of a blue wave and that the Democrats might win the House of Representatives by just a small margin and the Republicans would likely hold on to the Senate.
It looks now like there was a massive blue wave. At the time of this writing (about 10:30 pm Pacific time), Democrats have flipped 27 seats to win control of the House. They already have 224 seats to 127 for Republicans with 84 races still to be called. In the Senate, they have flipped seven seats to already have 53 seats to the Republicans 42 with five races still to be called. In the Senate, 51 seats would not have been enough for control since Pennsylvania’s supposedly Democratic senator John Fetterman seems to have lost his marbles and makes unconditional support for Israel, however awful their actions, his main concern and could vote with the Republicans or switch parties at any time. You can be sure that they are heavily courting him. If Democrats had only 51 seats, he could hold the party hostage to go along with his appalling policies. Now he becomes marginalized.
I have been waiting for the Michigan Senate seat to be called before going to sleep since I fervently wish that Abdul El-Sayed prevails after the disgusting racist campaign that was waged against him by Trump and the Republicans and the last minute endorsement of his opponent by his primary rival Haley Stevens, who is a Democratic congresswoman. He has a slight lead but it is close.
There are some particularly delicious results to savor, such as the awful Vivek Ramaswamy handily losing the Ohio governor’s race to Amy Acton, despite (or perhaps because of) running that disgusting ad using Acton’s mother.. We all know people like Ramaswamy, the kind of smug, obnoxious, smart-ass whom even his friends dislike, We also have that John Husted had his big, beautiful ass, the one that Trump repeatedly lusted over, handed to him by Democrat Sherrod Brown in the senate race.
Then we had Republican incumbent Darline Graham losing the South Carolina senate seat to pediatrician Annie Andrews. That seat had long been held by her odious brother Lindsey Graham and she was appointed to fill it after he died. This win is particularly enjoyable because Trump pushed her candidacy without consulting the party members in the state who had reservations about her inexperience. She was his vanity candidate so her loss is particularly enjoyable.
Then finally, finally, after years of failed expectations, a Democrat won a senate seat in Texas with James Talarico defeating the scandal-plagued and corrupt Ken Paxton. Paxton was also a Trump vanity candidate, choosing him in the primaries over long-time incumbent John Cornyn simply because Cornyn had mildly distanced himself from Trump on a few issues. That is not all. Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governorship over long-time Republican incumbent Greg Abbott who had built a powerful machine. Sadly, while Angie Nixon in Florida came close to winning the senate seat there, she could not pull off a similar flip.
I was also thrilled that Susan Collins lost in Maine. Her smug unctuous attitude really grated on me but despite her shameless pandering to Trumpism while claiming to be independent, she kept winning. Now thankfully she is gone.
There have also been a slew of progressives winning house seats, which I hope will prevent speaker-to-be Hakeem Jeffries from being too friendly to right wing policies.
We should also enjoy the fact that Elon Musk wasted around half a billion dollars in his effort to keep Republicans in control of both houses. The AI industry heavily backed Darline Graham and lost and the crypto industry backed Husted and lost. Anything that takes money away from these greedy oligarchs is a good thing. Good times!
Republicans even lost the seats they gerrymandered to win. In North Carolina, where they held 10 of the 14 congressional seats, they gerrymandered it to make it 11. But now it looks like the Democrats will win nine of them.
And in a real shocker, Democrat Scott Colom is in a very close race for the senate seat in deep red Mississippi against incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith.
So after a month of Trump running around the country in support of Republicans and talking about their asses, he got his own ass handed to him on a platter. I am also really glad to see the current speaker Mike Johnson, the groveler-in-chief to Trump, losing his job.
And now, the bad news. It looks like we will not be getting $5,000 checks from Trump.
On his show last night, Jimmy Kimmel celebrated the early news of a blue wave.
this is kinda shocking to me? and being in “living thru horror” mode, immediately concerned about the backlash. guess i’ll find out about the opening salvos on pharyngula in the morning… still, a brief moment to shed a tear of hope. can’t let that pass unnoticed.
Good news all round!
The Michigan senate race has been called for El-Sayed.
cryin’
Out of curiosity, last night I had a look to see what the prediction markets were saying. Most of the Senate pickups were predicted, but South Carolina was “likely Republican”.
Good news!
… but the show will go on. Trump has two more years to be a narsistic asshole, and since he has no more elections to hold him back, he’ll go all the way.
I don’t know why bother keeping abreast of the news leading up to the election, and then glom on to news updates as results trickle in. Knowing the outlook is bleak doesn’t do anything, and as we see here, even having very positive indications does nothing to allay nerves! So, just switch off and only check back in when results are known, more or less.
Oh and naturally political outlets have come up with a moniker for the results: the blue-nami.
/eyeroll.
Scratch a political reporter, find a branding marketer underneath.
Some wit on Bluesky said they wished Mitch McConnell was alive to see this.
The Republican backbiting had already begun, even before AES race had been called. Former MI GOP exec director wrote “Tonight is likely to be a rejection of Mike Rogers. All tweeting aside, I’ve known Mike and Kristi for 30+ years, I know how much it will hurt to lose. If that happens, I hope they accept this in the spirit in which it is offered: You deserve to be miserable after the appalling bigotry you’ve spread like napalm. Go away.”
Also, Hair Furor actually called Abbott a RINO! LOL
I don’t know which win I love the most. Getting rid of both Abbott and Paxton, relishing Collins’ being very concerned that she might not be reelected, Brown and Acton kicking the scum to the curb, MI getting it right, Graham getting the boot, just so, so many I’m so, so happy to see the backside of. It will be awhile before we know MS, since there will inevitably be a recount, but I fervently hope Hyde-Smith will have to pack her bags and go home.
In my own back yard, it looks like only 4 R’s have even a chance of winning their House seats, while the Senate of course are both D’s.
While Prop 3 looks like it will pass, making permanent a tax on higher incomes, the massive propaganda blitz against 40, the billionaires tax apparently worked, and while 41 also failed, 42 did not. At least we didn’t fall for the voter ID fearmongering. One that’s still a toss-up that I hope will pass is to require a separate election if a recall is successful, instead of combining the vote by having candidates run for an office that might not be open in the same election. It was very confusing, even if it seemed like it saved some money.
I have my doubts if Jeffries will retain the speakership. He’s been way too conciliatory toward the R side of the aisle, and a lot of progressives won seats this time and will not stand for it. I’d really like to see him set aside almost as much as I’m glad that smarmy Johnson will be out on his unctuous ass.
Will the fascists go quietly away? I have my doubts.
I think Trump himself will probably take his ball and go home, i.e. spend the next two years making speeches at rallies and trying to build monuments to himself. Look for him to be an attraction at the Montana State Fair in 2032 (if he lives that long). He will complain a lot about how the elections were stolen and there will be challenges to the results, but those will be largely ineffectual. He may try to start a riot at the capital again, but I get the impression that enthusiasm for his leadership has waned. We are on to the greatest hits phase of his presidency and they are not aging well.
That being said, his staff may well realize they have only a couple months left to entangle the US government in ways which will continue to advance their interests once they are gone. I.e. expect a lot of policy updates in the military and homeland security, eliminating regulations, striping departments of experts and funding, and making commitments with foreign powers which a democratic congress will have a hard time undoing. What’s the over/under on all the sanctions put on Russia over the years being completely lifted? Or the odds that deliveries of war equipment to Israel will increase, even if it means shorting equipment for American troops?
Further, I expect blanket presidential pardons to start showing up in December. Pardons for any illegal action by Musk and his team, high-ranking individuals in the DOJ, all of Trump’s cabinet, etc. There will probably be a test of presidential pardon power. Until recently presidential pardons have been treated as a last-ditch safety net for people who clearly suffered a miscarriage of justice or people where the laws they were prosecuted and sentenced under changed. While the power of the pardon has been abused in the past to protect associates it has never been to this extent. The blatant sale of pardons by this administration should be a call to put guardrails on them. Regretfully, I don’t see the USSC ruling for any restrictions on a presidential pardon, so people like the DOGE kids will probably avoid prison time no matter how much they deserve it. If pardons start flying, that shouldn’t stop the prosecutors from investigating and then making public their crimes.
I stayed up all night to watch it from Sweden (six hours to the east). It was worth it.
Texas now has a woman Dem governor for the first time since wossname, Dubya’s dirty tricks expert got the previous one out by spreading false rumours during the election campaign more than 30 years ago.
This is step one. Step two is to make sure everyone is seated. Step three is to see if the Dems will be able to multi-track: hold as many fascists as possible accountable, and pass legislation that helps non-oligarchs. And that will be tough, as the malignant narcissist will veto any decent legislation.
flex #9: “I think Trump himself will probably take his ball and go home, i.e. spend the next two years making speeches at rallies and trying to build monuments to himself.”
European pundits don’t think so:
https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/04/after-us-midterms-a-weakened-trump-may-pose-a-greater-threat-to-europe
A great relief to have my prediction (of a massive attack on Iran to provoke protests and declare an election-aborting emergency) proven wrong.
Best scenario now seems to be that Trump will simply lose interest in all things middle east (okay, absolute best would be he loses interest in all things period).
Given the price of eggs , this will help.
Im as cynical as you were -- I still dont know if this means the Dems will actually do something. They should stop with their Trump trump trump and do things that matter -- Get prices down , pass some long lasting laws -- hold some people accountable (Jail time , Musk , Doge -- if Santa gives me this gift I might reconsider my (lack of) religion). One good(?) thing about Trump is his utter lack of ideology -- (Hey we’ll fund your cheesecake factory remake (it looks wonderful really! what a brilliant idea you have mr prez) , just let us go after some guys that you dont like much anyway)
Abortion rights initiatives had a pretty good night too. Virginia and Nevada adopted constitutional amenments, and Missouri voters nixed an attempt by conservatives to undo previous advances. Idaho was a no-go, but at least a couple of places are moving in the right direction.
@12, Lassi Hippeläinen,
I would agree with the article that the EU shouldn’t consider Trump as a threat to have been eliminated, but it miss-represents what Congress can do to limit Trump’s impact abroad. I would say that before making claims about what Trump can do, the pundit’s should have read the US Federal Constitution, especially the distribution of powers. However, as it seems most US Citizens haven’t read it, or understand it if they have, I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised that the European pundits haven’t.
The short answer is that Congress does have a great deal of power to limit Trump’s overseas agenda. All treaties (article 2 section 2) and tariffs (article 1 section 7 and 8) have to be approved by Congress. The president does not have the power to declare war on other nations, that power resides with Congress (article 1, section 8). The fact that within living memory no congress has acted to thwart a president making treaties, tariffs, or declaring war does not change where the power is assigned. Up until now, President’s have taken their requests to Congress and Congress has rubber-stamped them. The responsibility for Trump’s tariffs and wars does not entirely rest on the head of Trump and his staff, the republican congress had the power to stop all of that, and chose not to. I am hoping that the democratic congress uses it’s power to stop them, at this point it’s only a hope. It’s the right thing to do, but congress does not always do the right thing.