While the UK general election saw a huge win for the Conservatives and was seen as driven by a desire to leave the EU, it also saw the Scottish National Party win big in Scotland, winning 48 seats of the 59 seats in Scotland, up from 35 seats in the previous parliament but less than the high of 56 they won in 2015. The Conservative vote totals in Scotland decreased by 3.5% and the party lost seven seats, going down to just six. This widens the split between Scotland and the rest of the UK. It should be remembered that Scotland voted against Brexit in 2016 and the new results have fueled moves to have another referendum on Scottish independence so that if it passes, they can rejoin the EU. The last independence referendum lost by a margin of 45-55% in 2014.
“We stood on a clear and unequivocal platform of rejecting Brexit and giving the people of Scotland a choice over their future – ensuring Scotland’s future is in Scotland’s hands,” said Ian Blackford, their Westminster leader.
…This week [SNP leader Nicola] Sturgeon will publish a new document she hopes will define the case for independence and strengthen her demands for the powers to stage a second referendum.
On Thursday a separate bill is due to be voted through at Holyrood setting out how referendums in Scotland will be run. For supporters of independence there is now an inescapable sense of momentum, and of an opportunity greater than in 2014 when they fought and lost the first referendum.
Boris Johnson has vowed not to allow a referendum and this sets the stage for a constitutional struggle. It is also not clear how much the votes for the SNP translate into votes in favor of independence, and there will be many hurdles to overcome.
Sturgeon has been choosing her language carefully, framing the case for a referendum around choice. To her frustration, Westminster’s chaotic handling of Brexit and Johnson’s subsequent election as Tory leader has not led to a surge in support for independence.
The polls show support averaging around 48%. The latest poll by YouGov for the Times the week before the election found a five-point fall in the yes vote, down to 44% excluding don’t knows.
…But the polls also show evidence of a potential yes vote ready to be tapped. Several this year have said the combination of a Johnson government and Brexit could nudge the yes vote above 50%. There is higher support for holding a referendum, and polls that ask the question show a majority of Scots expect independence to take place over the next decade. Thanks to the new referendum bill, EU citizens in Scotland would be able to vote too, which is expected to boost the yes vote.
…Johnson’s Brexit model will be another strong card. Sturgeon will focus on his decision to give Northern Ireland special protections, keeping it within the EU’s customs union and retaining an open border with Ireland, and will ask why Scotland does not get similar privileges. She will focus on any moves by the UK to dilute EU environmental, social or food standards rules.
…Sturgeon will face searching questions about how an independent Scotland could maintain public services while driving down that deficit; whether there would be a customs border at Berwick and Gretna Green, with tariffs inhibiting trade with the rest of the UK; whether Scotland could continue using sterling as its currency and still apply for EU membership; and how Scotland could continue to afford to fund pensions without the UK’s financial support.
This is just one of the many post-Brexit issues that will need to be negotiated or adjudicated by the courts.
In my opinion the SNP are pushing too early. Let Brexit happen, let everyone see that the inevitable downsides are not just scaremongering, and only then push for a referendum. It may not be the path of least pain, but it will be more likely to be successful, and it will provide a better mandate long term. If Scotland manages to achieve independence before Brexit comes into effect, that will be the perfect scapegoat for the Tories to blame for failures of Brexit.
As much as I understand the frustration, this feels a little too much like “Wexit” here in Canada where there was a surge of support for Alberta and Saskatchewan leaving Canada after the last election when neither province elected a Liberal MP and were shocked and horrified that the rest of the country doesn’t hate the Liberals in general and Trudeau in particular as much as a bunch of western conservatives do.
If I recall correctly, during the Obama years there was also a lot of talk about Texas seceding. Then there’s right now a bunch of Republican Californians are tired of losing every election there so they want to split that state up.
It’s absurd to me that in these movements, the motions to break up unions do not require a super majority of at least 67% or even 75%. The thinnest of majorities that can shift with the slightest wind shouldn’t be allowed to carry such irrevocable changes.
@Tabby: there’s a level of cultural division between Scotland and England I think you’re underestimating the importance of, more apt analogy would probably be Quebec separatism. Except the UK government is also doing something monumentally stupid that Scotland is overwhelmingly opposed to, so even that’s not a perfect analogy.
#3
The same goes for Brexit, especially when you look at the vote in terms of the proportion of those registered / eligible to vote, rather than only looking at the vote in terms of those that bothered to vote. Brexit had fifty-something percent of those that voted, yet they only had about 34% of the body of people that was eligible to vote. The UK is ruining itself on the say so of only about a third of its adult population.
file thirteen, @ #1:
It’s not an unreasonable position, but they have to balance that against the concerns of an increasingly frustrated grass-roots movement that feels they’ve not been pushing hard enough up until now… It’s a tricky needle to thread.
Tabby Lavalamp, @ #2:
Firstly, you cannot understand Scottish politics by analogy. (I’d question whether you can understand anybody’s politics by analogy, but anyway…) There is a huge amount of history involved, and the cultural differences are significant. Even the English generally don’t understand Scottish politics. (Which is part of the problem.)
Secondly, it’s not like the Scottish Independence movement has suddenly sprung out of nowhere -- the SNP was founded in 1934, won its first Westminster MP in 1967, and has been the party of government in Scotland for the last 12 years (much of that time with an outright majority, which our electoral system was explicitly designed to make almost impossible). This isn’t just a reaction to recent events.
Sam N, @ #3:
While I’m not sure I would insist on quite such a large supermajority, I do agree with the general principle. (And I say that as an independence supporter.) Unfortunately it’s not a very popular point of view in the wider independence movement, for obvious reasons…
@Holms #5
That said, when there was the most important election affecting Brexit ever (so far anyway), the Conservatives romped home. As much as I despise the idea, it seems that the majority of people who give a rat actually do want a Brexit. While you may be technically right, those not motivated enough to vote in the referendum can’t be assumed to be remainers. They may just not care.
It would be too soon for the SNP to hold a referendum, but it is not too early to start politicking for one. These things take some time, and it is unlikely that it could be held before the end of 2020 when the trade negotiations with the EU are now scheduled to end. Besides, they would want the politicking to raise the support to at least the 50% mark.
Then, how long would it be before actual Scotland Independence? The Brexit referendum was 3 and a half years ago.
Meanwhile, what of Irish Unification? Back in July, there was talk of Brexit bringing about Unification from both the Irish Prime Minister[1] and from the leader of Sinn Fein[2].
There is a whole lot of history in the way[3], and conflicting trends[4], but quite possibly Northern Ireland could secede along with, or even before, Scotland.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-nireland/irish-pm-says-hard-brexit-would-raise-issue-of-irish-unification-idUSKCN1UL280
[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-nireland/sinn-fein-says-brexit-threat-means-dublin-should-prepare-for-irish-unification-idUSKCN1UP1OJ
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland
Just an Organic Expression @#9,
I was wondering what the sentiment was like in Northern Ireland for unification but could not get a feel for it, so thanks a lot for the links.
Unification of the two parts of the island makes so much sense that one marvels that it has not happened before. Of course, I understand the bitter religious and political history between two regions but given the increasing secularization of people and the realization that Boris Johnson is willing to sacrifice Northern Ireland’s interests in the drive for Brexit may be the tipping point.