Blast off!

To the moon, Alice, to the moon!

Look at that. No COVID-19 cases in my county in the summer, and then we all got cocky and slacked off. The Minnesota governor lifted the mask mandate, we had the Stevens County fair (I skipped it), the college students started trickling back, the schools opened, and whooo-eee, look at that spike! 28 cases on Thursday, 48 on Friday, and we’ll have to wait and see the thrilling progression on Monday. Will it continue to rise? Or will the roller coaster start going down? Nobody knows! We don’t even know where the locus of infection is, although rumor has it that in this case it’s due to spread in a local church congregation.

You may recall the conservative church domination of our school board means the public schools here aren’t allowed to insist on masking or vaccinations. How’s that going for you, Stevens County?

I’m pretty sure our local hospital couldn’t cope with 48 serious cases — I hope the majority of the current surge do not require hospitalization — so, to everyone else…do not get sick right now. Be safe. Don’t take any risks. Because if you do, you might find yourself at the bottom of any priorities.


  1. raven says

    Will it continue to rise? Or will the roller coaster start going down?

    Not likely.

    The pattern with Delta Covid-19 virus is that it goes up rapidly, sits on a plateau for a few weeks, and then slowly goes down over 2 to 3 months.
    That Delta goes down over 2 to 3 months is projected. In most places the virus cases have yet to go down, still peaking or just after the plateau phase.
    And of course, hospitalizations follow cases by a week or two, and deaths lag that by a few weeks.

    The fundie churches have been reliable dens of Plague Rats throughout this pandemic. No surprise there.
    The latest place for mass outbreaks have been the children’s primary and secondary schools. How do you quarantine a 7 year old sick kid from the other family members? Unless you’ve had training with PPE and your own hospital unit, it’s not going to be easy.

  2. raven says

    This is from the American Academy of Pediatrics.
    Over two weeks ending September 09, 2021 there were 1/2 million Covid-19 virus cases in children, running about 250,000 cases per week.
    You can expect the Stevens county schools to have cases and outbreaks of the Covid-19 virus..

    5,292,837 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 15.5% (5,292,837/34,198,122) of all cases

    Change in Child COVID-19 Cases*
    243,373 child COVID-19 cases were reported the past week from 9/2/21-9/9/21
    (5,049,465 to 5,292,837) and children represented 28.9% (243,373/840,838) of the weekly reported cases
    Over two weeks, 8/26/21-9/9/21, there was a 10% increase in the cumulated number of child COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic
    (495,154 cases added
    (4,797,683 to 5,292,837))

  3. jrkrideau says

    Since the 1st of September my local health unit (pop ~ 200K) went from ~ 7–8 cases all summer up to a high, IIRC, of 48 and we are at 37 cases as of yesterday but no one is hospitalized. The arrival of 30 or 40 thousand students at the various educational institutions in town may have had an effect.

    I think we are getting a bit blasé but fairly strict masking and social distancing is holding at least indoors. Our hospital may even have some beds for evacuees from Alberta.

    Our primier is an ididt but Premier Kenny of Alberta is a totalli incompetent fool plus religious nutter.

  4. TGAP Dad says

    I live in a major college town, and I only needed to see what welcome week (complete with frat/sorority rush) and the first football game to know in advance what the graph would look like. It’s more predictable than planetary motion at this point.

  5. says

    Here cases seem to be plateauing on a level the USA would probably dream of (63 cases per 100.000 people per week), but which I consider being too high anyway, especially since about 70 % of the population is vaxed. Coincidentally, the little one has to spend the weekend in self- isolation, since a kid with whom she had contact on Monday tested positive on Thursday. She’ll get a PCR tomorrow (quick tests so far have been negative) and if that one’s negative, she can go outside again.
    This is actually the first time this happened to any of us (we were lucky, I know families that have been just as careful who’ve been in self isolation several times) and of course it has to happen to the only unvaccinated member of the family (5 weeks until her 12th birthday…). But of course this had to happen to hear, because the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” is the pandemic of the children as well.
    Oh, did I mention that off course this is the moment she also gets the first autumn cold?

  6. jrkrideau says

    @ 6 TGAP Dad
    City Gov’t apparently laid a few CDN$2,000 fines for a student house party last night . I am sure we will have more and I think a fine can go as high as $100,000 or more. City council was getting a bit annoyed in March of 2020 and raised the fine from $500.

    We have both the 2020 & 2021first-years on the campuses for the first time. We will probably get the usual insanity^2.

    Apparently if I am reading the website the university is playing field sports but IIRC they don’t get really big crowds. Football is not a religion in Canada. I am not even sure the community college has a football team.