Let’s see…gentle rain showers, warming temperatures, a few flowers beginning to bloom? No, this is our latest weather prediction:
A winter storm warning remains in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am cdt Saturday.
Heavy snowfall is expected across central through southwest areas of minnesota beginning this afternoon and lasting through friday. The precipitation is expected to begin as a period of rain and snow…but a quick transition to all snow is expected across west central minnesota this afternoon. Visibility will be reduced to less than a quarter mile at times in heavy snow and several inches of snow may accumulate over a short period of time. In addition to the snowfall accumulations…there will be very strong northeast winds with speeds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts. This will cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow and further reduced visibility in open areas Thursday night and Friday. This will make travel especially hazardous if not impossible at times. snow intensity will decrease Friday but additional accumulation is expected.
The highest snowfall amounts are expected to occur in a swath from Canby to Redwood Falls northeast to Alexandria to Cambridge where accumulations of 12 to 15 inches… with isolated higher amounts…are expected by late Friday night.
I think I’ll be spending a few quiet days at home.
Yup know how you feel got the same damn weather up here in Calgary. I know we’re the Great White North but I could do with a little more Global Warming and a lot less Cooling :P
Cheers!
Global warming… you just gotta love it. :D
Yeah, we’re having weird weather here. Could get up into the low 90’s in parts of L.A.
I have to echo Nicki’s response actually. We’ve got at least 4-5 inches of snow so far this morning here in Calgary, AB.
At least it’s not cold AND snowy… just snowy.
I’m so jealous. We haven’t had any decent snow down here in the MidAtlantic for donkey’s years. Not like when I was a boy; back then we actually had to hook up a snowblade to our tractor every winter to keep the drive clear.
Hey, at least there’s hockey playoffs on Friday. go Avs
Where I’m at in Colorado, we got 8″ overnight.
It’s usual to have more snow in April here in Montana (I think), but lately we have been given some nice days with clear skies, birds singing, ice melting, but this morning it was snowing pretty good. I can’t wait until June!
I’ve been seeing some interesting weather lately too. Last weekend, I traveled from Western New York to San Diego, then back to NY after a couple of days. The temperature was completely constant, no matter where I was, over that entire weekend. You’d think SoCal would be a bit warmer. Meh.
Not missing Minnesota at all today.
Hey! At least you get to spend a few QUIET days. Here in Oklahoma it is also Spring. Night before last we were awakened at 2AM by the tornado warning sirens. We relocated to an inner hallway and sat and listened to and watched the weather forecasters radar pictures of where tornados might be forming. Got back to bed about 3:30. Last night more storms all night – though no tornados. We, not officially, but on our rain gauge, have had 10 inches of rain in the last 36 hours. We have flood warnings out all over the place.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
Aww… here, PZ, have some 90-degree, South Florida sunshine – you’ll just have to pardon the haze of ignorance clinging to it from the rest of the state.
Dear Missus_gumby,
You should be aware that climate change, and “global warming”, has been predicted (see IPCC 4AR) to result in “increased and more severe precipitation events”. Snow is precipitation. The more water vapour in the atmosphere, the more rain and snow.
Extreme snowfall events are by no means in contradiction with climate change models.
Cheers, Andrew.
Here in Phoenix AZ the temp dropped 10 degrees yesterday. It was only 74. But low 90’s by the weekend. Gotta get the pool clean, it will be swimming weather soon.
I refuse to get the snow shovel out. Gonna hunker down, not look out the window, and exist in denial until it melts on Monday or Tuesday.
Now is a great time to sit the kiddies down in front of the TV and have them watch the PBS boxed set of “Evolution”. :)
80 degrees this weekend in the SF bay area. Hillsides are green and fields full of flowers. Just a couple of the increasingly few good reasons why I continue living here.
Professor Myers, you and your family have an open invitation to be a guest in my home anytime – 80 and sunny in my part of Florida today!:-)
P.S. Please bring Mr. Irons with you as well!
I’m not sure you have it worse than us. Here in the far southern precincts of Wisconsin it is 40 and raining. Truly miserable.
Bahhh!
Ick. Far, far too hot, especially for mid-April.
… we haven’t heard from Idaho or New Mexico yet …
Your weather report and the time of year reminds me of four years spent living in Grand Forks, ND. The winter of 97-98 was a blast with, IIRC, seven official blizzards plus a 100-year flood to boot. Good times.
(.)(.)
Up here in Sonoma County we’ve got a great weekend ahead of us (see #15), but it’s been frosty in the mornings for much longer than usual. Still, I don’t miss the midwest where I grew up.
Here in Valencia, Spain we’re having 25ºC (77F) and just a few clouds on the sky. Wonderful spring day. 350km up north (in Barcelona) there’s a big problem with no rain and water restrictions should begin soon if the situation continues. That is something unusual for Barcelona.
Here in Valencia, Spain we’re having 25ºC (77F) and just a few clouds on the sky. Wonderful spring day. 350km up north (in Barcelona) there’s a big problem with no rain and water restrictions should begin soon if the situation continues. That is something unusual for Barcelona.
A few summers back I did and internship in norther MN near Detroit Lakes. When I arrived in late April, I was convinced I was in Narnia – always winter, never Xmas. Then the thaw came with Floridian temperatures, wood ticks and mosquitoes. (I’ll take a dozen wood ticks any day over a Lyme-disease-infested deer tick.)
You must secretly be English – you blog about the weather all the time. I bet you like tea too.
Same here in the upper peninsula of MI. Sounds like we’re getting it right after you guys… yuck.
If you haven’t heard the Lewis Black bits on Minnesota, you definitely need to. Wish I could remember which CD it was on (the one recorded in Minnesota, I bet…).
Ah yes PZ, hunker down during the storm! Cabin fever is one situation that I never suffer from. Man, what a thrill to be snowed in for weeks at a time with advanced warning to stock up on food, water, a back up generator powerful enough to run for weeks, perhaps cable TV still working, a good friend in the form of your spouse, and a wealth of books on and about your favorite people, like Dawkins et al, some old constant friends like Twain, Dickens, Russell, Mencken, and others of our persuasion, Wodehouse, Thurber, Perelman, and maybe some Opus, cartoons by Oliphant, and whatever you desire, books on trains, and Astronomy and whatever enriches this sorry state we are in. And isn’t it incredible that the accumulation of that damned designed snow will cave in the roofs of so many damn churches in the snow belt. The freaking nerve to do that to all those houses of the gods! And yet the inane dolts exclaim that it is their god’s way of testing them and their unwavering idiotic faith! You freaking snow!
I second ddr’s remarks. It was nice to drop into the “cool” 70s, because we’ll hit triple digits in Phoenix any week now. We might flirt with 100 as early as Monday.
rain in Chicago… but looks like a snowy mix for the weekend… blech.
Pittsburgh is having 10 to 20 degree F warmer weather than is typical for this time of year. Personally i wish it would stay like this and not get too much warmer.
FROM NOAA:
This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind around 8 mph.
Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind 8 to 11 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind between 13 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Checking in from Iowa..We’re only supposed to get a couple of inches or so here in Ames. Thing is, it’s VEISHEA weekend. The cold weather is just not conducive to parades and outdoor displays, I tell ya. It’s not all bad for me though…my girlfriend is flying in for the weekend from California :) :) :) and we plan to have our own little party…we wouldn’t mind being snowed in, actually.
I’m out planting flowers and landscaping my yard here in Georgia, but I can’t relate to my neighbours! Getting a bit of a sun burn. Ah trade offs.
The most perfect weather I ever experienced was summer on the southern coast of England. Highs in the upper 60s (F), bright and sunny, with a light, crisp breeze. I wish I could go back and live there. Or at least steal their climate for my own.
What are tropical apes doing living in such places? How do you all manage?
I was very cold in Berkeley this week, it must have been 10°C with the wind chill.
Carol #33 and I are in the same piece of favored real estate, the Empire State of the South, Georgia. The first half of April is IMHO the most beautiful time of year here. Today’s temp is in the low 70s, all the dogwoods and azaleas are in full bloom in my yard. Just lovely.
Now if we could just get rid of the Baptist Taliban that runs this joint…….
Well, if it’s lake effect snow, it could well be an effect of warming.
But here in North Central Texas, we had a super cell storm last night that ran rampant for more than 300 miles, spinning out tornadoes at a pretty good clip. A couple of local towns got hit, Breckenridge and DeSoto. We had more than an inch of rain in about 20 minutes very early this morning.
Such turbulence isn’t evidence of global warming, the skeptics say. Just the same, the insurance companies have raised their rates, since their actuaries say global warming effects have been pelting Texas for a decade — and they can’t gamble with denying it.
Don’t ya just love markets?
Standard line about Minnesota – it has two seasons – winter and July.
Oh, man. We had a massive dump of the white stuff last night. Traffic is still backed up for miles, though at least it’s melting. I’ve never seen the likes in my 12 years here. I got about a half mile and realized I was never going to get anywhere near work, so I just did a u-turn, went home and started shovelling. The snow god is exacting his price for our win over the Sharks last night. Go Flames!
I remember April blizzards from when I lived in St Paul. It isn’t that unusual. Mind you the weather was always unusual to Minnesotans – coldest this, snowiest that.
It is sunny and 70 here in the mid-atlantic region. I’m going to play in my garden for a while.
@Martin #38,
Alternatively, “it probably won’t snow in any month in which the name has a U as the second letter”.
PZ Myers blogs about the local weather and there are over 30 comments? Yeesh, the other science bloggers must hate you.
Tom @36 forgot to mention the wisteria. This is definitely the prettiest time of the year in Atlanta.
On the other hand, according to the AJC, the pollen count for today is 2809. Lets see, which would I rather do. . . Sneeze? Shovel? Of course, at the rate the pollen is building up on the patio, I could be doing both by the end of the week.
I hear we’re due for a big blizzard (if it’s windy enough) tomorrow. I live in southern Minnesota. I suspect you’ll get the worst of it up in Morris. Springtime in Minnesota always looks a lot like winter to me.
So much for global warming. Ever since I heard about that latest bit of scaremongering, I thought scientists who claimed we’d all soon be roasting should put an asterisk under their dire warnings and type this little note next to it: “Except in Minnesota.”
Your plans to stay home sound sensible to me. I think I’ll do likewise.
In Reno, we will have upper 70’s to low 80’s on Sunday…and this is after about 10 minutes of snow on Wednesday!
That is what I love about northern Nevada: if you don’t like he weather, just wait 15 minutes.
“You should be aware that climate change, and “global warming”, has been predicted (see IPCC 4AR) to result in “increased and more severe precipitation events”. Snow is precipitation. The more water vapour in the atmosphere, the more rain and snow.”
Does this mean that the Little Ice Age and the big ice ages were caused by global warming?
The problem with the global warming hypothesis (well, one of its many problems) is that it is now being used to explain everything weather related in the world, including opposites. Opposites like LA heat waves and Minnesota blizzards. Ridiculous!
It ceased being science years ago. Science is falsifiable. Global warming is not.
SAlly, the science behind AGW is not responsible for the misuse people make of its projections.
Heck, all it would take to falsify it would be 2 or 3 decades of dropping globam temps, increasing CO2 and no change in any influence such as solar output.
“You must secretly be English – you blog about the weather all the time. I bet you like tea too.”
No, the good Prof is definitely a Minnesotan. We talk about the weather constantly…because there’s always so much of it to talk about.
******
Minnesota weather jokes:
If you don’t like the weather in Minnesota, wait five minutes.
Minnesota is the land of four seasons. Unfortunately, they often occur in the same week.
Minnesota is the land of two seasons, winter and road construction.
A Minnesotan was frustrated. He planned to spend summer up north in his cabin, but he missed it because he had to work that day.
When the groundhog sees his shadow on Feb. 2, that means six more weeks of winter for most places in America and 12 more weeks of winter in Minnesota.
*****
English weather is drab by comparison.
Checking in from Iowa..We’re only supposed to get a couple of inches or so here in Ames. Thing is, it’s VEISHEA weekend.
Planning any riots? Ah, school in Ames.
Guthrie:
“Heck, all it would take to falsify it would be 2 or 3 decades of dropping globam temps”
This is already happening. Global temps dropped one whole degree just last year.
I suspect what’s actually going on and what has been going on for decades is normal weather variations, not climate change. The difference between weather and climate is a few centuries. Perhaps you’ve noticed how short global warming timelines are. They chart weather changes, not climate change.
Unfortunately, most global warming scientists are not Minnesotans or they wouldn’t have made that elementary category mistake. Weather is ALWAYS changing. See my list of Minnesota weather jokes as reference.
“… we haven’t heard from Idaho or New Mexico yet …”
zzzzwha? Oh! Oh! Uh…currently 8 degrees Celsius in Boise, winds out of the northwest at 20 kmph, mostly cloudy, forecasted high of 13 today, warming up to 22 over the weekend, air pressure is…between 18 and 22, Doppler radar…
Alert the media. Notify the IPCC, AMS, AGU, and Al Gore. Sally Morem has just declared an end to AGW!citation needed
Alert the media. Notify the IPCC, AMS, AGU, and Al Gore. Sally Morem has just declared an end to AGW!citation needed
There’s No Controlling Legal AuthorityTM to end global warming. Now if you’ll excuse me, my private jet is waiting. I’m going to Norway to purchase some carbon credits.
Everyone says this about their own location. It’s annoying. Stop it.
And MAJeff:
Sadly, VEISHEA was neutered almost a decade ago after it got particularly wild one year and strayed within a thousand miles of ‘out-of-hand’.
Dr. Myers, if you want to come down, there’s going to be a 5k donut run in Ames, IA this Saturday. Should be a balmy 40 degrees or so, and only light snow showers.
Yeah, and some of us are trying to blow this popsicle stand (or Minneapolis, close enough) to get back to the land of normal-looking license plates: Iowa. I mean, come on, how do you people know what invectives to yell at people in traffic unless their license plate tells you what part of the state they’re from? Barring a Jebus fish, natch.
I guess we can look forward to several blog posts since you will be stuck at home. Good for us, not so good for you. :-)
It’s abouy 6 here (44 for you in the U.S.) and mildly sunny or just a bit cloudy all day. The robins came back two weeks ago, as soon as most of the snow was gone. The arctic ducks have disappeared off the lake and the cormorants are coming back. The city birds are singing their harsh, truncated, overloud songs and migrating warblers are passing through. The small spring bulbs are starting to bloom. And when your glorious flush of spring is gone in Phoenix is gone and it’s hot and dry, it will still be green here. And smoggy.
Algore (a fitting handle),
“Alert the media. Notify the IPCC, AMS, AGU, and Al Gore. Sally Morem has just declared an end to AGW!citation needed”
I declared it and so did several news sources. Here’s one:
http://www.hawaiireporter.com/story.aspx?2bedc079-41fc-4718-a326-4c5a52013898
Here’s a choice cut:
“All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA’s GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously. A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time.”
This site also posts reports that cast serious doubts on the existence of long-term global warming. Here’s another choice cut:
“Excerpt: NEW evidence has cast doubt on claims that the world’s ice-caps are melting, it emerged last night. Satellite data shows that concerns over the levels of sea ice may have been premature. It was feared that the polar caps were vanishing because of the effects of global warming. But figures from the respected US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that almost all the “lost” ice has come back. Ice levels which had shrunk from 13million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels.”
Now, what are we going to do about the oncoming Ice Age. Enquiring Minnesotans want to know. :)
The only things that can affect Earth’s overall climate are astronomical and geological in nature. Things like changes in solar energy output, axial tilt, volcanic eruptions, and the shape of Earth’s orbit around the Sun. These directly affect the amount of solar radiation Earth’s surface receives.
The position of the continents directly affects heat and cold exchange in the oceans. We’re in a long-term cooler climate overall because the poles are landlocked. Compare that to the age of the dinosaurs. They lived in huge forests on one gigantic continental “island,” warmed by freely flowing ocean currents. Now, the Antarctic covers the South Pole and Asia, Greenland and North America surround the North Pole. Ocean currents can’t flow freely around the Earth. Result, intermittent ice ages.
Human activity has no effect whatsoever on Earth’s overall climate.
This is clearly untrue. Our atmosphere is largely the product of biological processes.
“Ice levels which had shrunk from 13million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels”
From Wikipedia’s article on Polar ice packs, it looks like the figure you quoted is the volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. January 2007 was in the middle of winter. October 2007 was the end of summer. April 2008 is the end of the next winter.
It’s easy to say that ice levels have increased when you’re comparing the time of year when the sea is at its warmest with the time when it’s at its coldest.
PZ Myers:
“This is clearly untrue. Our atmosphere is largely the product of biological processes.”
It’s true that plants and animals respire and emit gases into the atmosphere. But plants and animals can have no effect at all on the amount of overall energy the system receives and distributes.
Receives, not. Distrubutes, yes, though perhaps a small effect. But when the subject is AGW, you can’t overlook the products of non-biological processes that are anthropogenic in nature: engines and generators of all types that burn fossil fuels. The effect on the chemical makeup ofthe atmosphere after 150 years of industrialization is not insignificant. The difficulty is in computing the effects of anthropogenic contributions alone. No? The claim that human activity has no effect whatsoever would seem to be as rash as a claim that we’re solely responsible for the impending destruction of our biosphere.
Patrick Conley
“Ice levels which had shrunk from 13 million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels.”
This report is referring to the combined square kilometers of arctic and antarctic ice caps, so winter and summer figures should balance out–and they weren’t in 2007.
“Satellite data shows that concerns over the levels of sea ice may have been premature. It was feared that the polar caps were vanishing because of the effects of global warming.”
Apparently from January to October 2007 the combined total had shrunk quite a bit during that period. And now (apparently from October 2007 to February 2008) the combined total of sea ice is back.
My guess is that when scientists study ice core samples, they’ll find that sea ice levels have fluctuated like this over the centuries.
I like to go to the source, rather than take a news story on faith – so hard to know who to trust, after all..:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Global Temperature Trends: 2007 Summation
The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the “El Niño of the century”. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle.
Figure 1 shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base period mean. The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the past thirty years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al. 2007). The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.
Of course, as I’m not an atmospheric scientist, this probably agrees completely with Sally’s assertions.
Um, I’m moving to Minnesota this summer – this sort of thing is not helping!
“The effect on the chemical makeup of the atmosphere after 150 years of industrialization is not insignificant.”
We do know that when large volcanic eruption occur, the particulates rise in the air, spread around the world, and actually block a measurable percentage of solar radiation. And we know the effects: The larger the eruptions, the larger the die-offs in the natural world and in human societies. Early 19th century Americans experienced the Year Without Summer as a result of one such eruption.
These eruptions have caused civilizations to fall, including (recent studies indicate) the Roman Empire (famines and epidemics caused by bad weather caused by a massive Pacific volcanic eruption led to an empire-wide population implosion). Such episodes of global cooling have been disastrous to the human race.
All human-caused emissions combined in history add up to a pittance compared to that released by one good-sized volcano. Climate models must reveal how comparatively small human emissions can have such disastrous effects compared to natural forces in order to be convincing.
Is Sally really arguing that because there are annual fluctuations, there is no trend? Look at the Mauna Loa CO2 curve – nice smooth annual periodicity greatly exceeding the difference between successive years. But the trend is very obviously there, and it’s getting steeper. Climate is much noisier than that, but the logic is the same.
And “My guess is that when scientists study ice core samples, they’ll find that sea ice levels have fluctuated like this over the centuries.” Well Duh! Scientists have been doing sciency stuff like that for some time now, and who does Sally think is actually telling us the climate’s changing? Not those same pesky scientists? Oh noes!
Sorry, still looking for the NOAA Arctic ice information, but this caught my eye:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/feb/feb08.html
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the 16th warmest on record for the December 2007-February 2008 period (0.58°F/0.32°C above the 20th century mean of 53.8°F/12.1°C). The presence of a moderate-to-strong La Niña contributed to a boreal winter and February temperature that were the coolest since the La Niña episode of 2000-2001.
While analyses of the causes of the severe winter storms in southern China continues, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory scientists are focusing on the presence of unusually strong, persistent high pressure over Eastern Europe, combined with low pressure over Southwest Asia. This pattern directed a series of storms across the region, while northerly low level flow introduced cold air from Mongolia. Unusually high water temperatures in the China Sea may have triggered available moisture that enhanced the severity of these storms.
Record Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in January was followed by above average snow cover for the month of February. Unusually high temperatures across much of the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere in February began reducing the snow cover, and by the end of February, snow cover extent was below average in many parts of the hemisphere.
While there has been little trend in snow cover extent during the winter season since records began in the late 1960s, spring snow cover extent has been sharply lower in the past two decades as global temperatures have increased.
Of course, this may very well be natural climatic variation, I suppose. After all, as we’re taught from early on, correlation does not imply causation, and even producing a plausible-seeming model to account for a set of observations does not mean that the model is accurate or applicable. Obviously, I won’t take up any more space here with this; googles are easy enough even an old fart like me can manage them..
oops, I lied; last call, though:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/feb/global.html#seaice
short version, over the last 20 years, February, northern hemisphere shrinking, southern hemisphere increasing. Says nothing about ice thickness or such, for what it’s worth. lot of noise in the southern hemisphere graph. I have no idea of the significance (if any) of either data set.
John R.
Apparently this will be an argument between agencies engaging in temperature measurement. Here’s data showing plummeting temps in 2007:
Source: Global ∆T °C
HadCRUT – 0.595
GISS – 0.750
UAH – 0.588
RSS – 0.629
Average: – 0.6405°C
Anecdotal data from around the world reveals a very harsh winter in 2007.
According to the article you linked to, the area of Antarctic sea ice last winter was 2.9 million km². According to Greenpeace, the area of Arctic sea ice is 13 million km ². Even if your report does include Antarctic sea ice, the smaller area of ice in the Antarctic would mean that Southern winter gains wouldn’t offset Northern summer losses.
Scientists have been doing this for decades. That’s how the famous hockey stick graph of the last millenium’s climate was made, and how scientists have analysed 400,000 years of CO₂ levels. According to these guys CO₂ levels are currently around 380ppmv. Ice cores don’t give a direct way of calculating sea ice levels.
Thanks for the numbers – out of curiosity, did you get them from the agency data sources, or from a news story? I don’t recall the NASA data showing a drop that wiped out even a couple years’ worth of change, let alone a century, is why I ask. In any event, I’m afraid I don’t have the knowledge or experience to judge the significance of such changes, especially given that a La Nina event tends to cool things down some. You may well be right, that this is simply some large/long-scale natural climate variation; I wouldn’t know. I’m willing to accept that a whole bunch of specialist researchers may be wrong – it wouldn’t be the first time – but I keep thinking back to the big uproar about bird origins w/regard to dinosaurs a few years back. Turned out that the few very adamant nay-sayers were wrong there, and the most of the researchers were right. I believe that this is the most common result. It may be easier and cheaper in the short-term to say there’s nothing we can do, but the long-term costs are likely to be pretty significant. Suppose we can’t afford the 9 stitches later, but we could (barely) afford the single stitch now – would it be worth it? There are lots and lots of assumptions there, but as a big fan of Ghostbusters, and one who repeatedly enjoys the showdown in the Mayor’s affice, I’m afraid I side with Peter Venkmann.
I think we’re all ready to admit that last winter was colder than most–that was the point of the OP, after all.
If I may quote guthrie,
A drop in temperature over a single year says nothing about the trends of a climate. Variation is always to be expected. It takes several decades of similar cooling for any trend to be identifiable.
I keep meaning to go, and can’t, but this is definitely the last time! A while back, I went over the ‘hockey stick’ myself with the aid of the orginal references, both pro and con. My statistics background is not as strong as my wife’s, but it certainly seemed very likely to me that the steepness of the recent up-turn is in fact due more to the underlying (somewhat arguable) assumptions as to where to place the baseline than to anything else. In spite of that, I see no reason to question the evidence of global warming, and so far it seems to me that the arguments of the AF people are more convincing and plausible than the other side’s. I’m intrigued by your reference to the fall of the Roman Emp., Sally – I hadn’t come across that myself (beyond the North African wheat problems); could you point me toward your sources, I’d be most interested in them! Thanks!
Yes, cat, very. We’ve got snow in the forecast but it’s not supposed to get colder than 36 degrees here in KC, MO. (hoping really hard, last year my cherry tree blossomed and then we got two weeks of less-than-27-degree weather that totally torched. I was unhappy, a lot of orchard keepers around here were suicidal.
this year the cherry tree is laden with buds that haven’t bloomed yet. I’m also hoping it doesn’t hail hard here.
Sadly, VEISHEA was neutered almost a decade ago after it got particularly wild one year and strayed within a thousand miles of ‘out-of-hand’.
I remember VEISHEA back in the day, especially the riots. I was a freshman during the 1988 riots, and I can recall laying in my dorm room in Helser and hearing the crowds on Welch chanting “Kent State! Kent State!” (and thinking “y’all don’t know anything about Kent State”) until Johnny Orr and whoever the football coach was were called in to disperse the crowd.
Then a few years later, when I was an RA in Friley, more riots, but it was the South Friley RAs who had to deal with tear gas being blown into room windows from Lincoln Way and not us on the North End of the building. Then a couple years later, when I was working for Res Life, I missed some other riot on Lincoln Way while I was at the Mr and Ms Black ISU VEISHEA pageant. In my own time at Ames, the celebration went from two days off of class to none. Then I heard about more riots in the late 1990s when Ames went, “Fuck y’all! Fix it.”
Who knew Iowans could get so crazy.
It was funny, though. I have a student whose parents met at ISU. They finally took her to Ames last summer, after a couple years of her nagging (after seeing an MST3K treatment of an ISU Home Ec recruiting film from the 1940s in my Gender class). It is a beautiful campus, and I miss Cafe Beaudelaire and Dugan’s Deli (was there on the night it closed)…
damn, I’m getting nostalgic for that town. I have no idea what I was originally going to say….there was some point, but I’ve lost it reminiscing about Iowa State (shoot me)
Don’t worry, Heather. It’s very cozy when you’re wrapped up in a blanket in front of your toasty warm laptop, with the wind howling and rattling the windows and the snow pouring down in dense sheets that limit visibility to oh, about a half block outside. And then there’s hot cocoa, and a shotgun to stave off the wolves.
Really. Springtime in Minnesota is very pleasant.
I just knew this was going to turn into a debate about climate change. As an environmental scientist-in-training these misconceptions are really vexing. See, climate fluctuates all the time but if you look at the rate of temperature increase over the last few decades it is happening exponentially faster than it’s ever happened before. One colder year doesn’t change the overall trend. As for this anecdotal “evidence”, where I live the winter was much milder this year than I’ve ever seen it. It just shows that climate change doesn’t happen uniformly, which is why the term global warming is misleading. And seriously, how could we not be having an effect on the environment? There are 6 billion of us!
When you deny climate change without understanding the science behind it you sound just like the anti-evolutionists.
I thought living in Michigan was bad…we’re going to be 75 tomorrow, so I guess it could be worse.
Meanwhile, in Frostbite Falls….
Prof. Myers, If you have time could you make some remarks about the program given at the recent atheist conference by Renee Salman?
Here in Oregon the weather is lovely. The cherries are in bloom, the hills are yellow with acres of wildflowers, and my dad is plowing the lavender field today. Sorry about your snow!
Here in Naples, Italy, the temps are pretty mild now. Unfortunately, we’ve begun the Spring “mud rain” period.
As I understand it, dust storms from Africa tend to blow north over the southern portion of Italy. Then, when it rains, we have mud everywhere.
Here is a link to the latest dust storm image from NASA.
“Heavy snowfall is expected…”
I guess I won’t get any sympathy for the sunburn I got on the beach in San Diego last weekend.
And the drive down to San Diego and back to the San Francisco Bay area was lovely, as the hills are covered with drifts of purple lupines or yellow mustard or orange poppies.
You know, I’ve been thinking about moving to Minnesota from Arizona. Second guessing, now… it was nearly 100 degrees here today, and I likes that fine. Now, when it gets to 118 and the lines on the asphalt run…