I have a new column today on OnlySky. It’s about the future of war, and how humans are playing less of a role in it.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine’s use of drones has been a force multiplier, allowing them to hold out against the numerically superior Russian army and even score some important strategic victories. We can be sure that military planners all over the world are paying close attention. It’s a glimpse of the future of war: not small numbers of high-tech, uber-expensive fighter jets or warships, but massive swarms of cheap drones that can be used for reconnaissance or to deliver pinpoint strikes.
In this case, drone technology has helped defend democracy against the invasion of an autocratic foe. But it’s not necessarily a development we should cheer. It’s all too possible that drones will make wars of the future cheaper, less risky, and therefore more common.
Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter:
So far, most drones have been used as kamikaze weapons—essentially, smart artillery shells that can home in on a target—or for reconnaissance to guide artillery strikes. But as the war drags on, they’re becoming larger, smarter and more capable. Like the Baba Yaga, they’re evolving into weapons platforms in their own right.
The newest iteration of Ukraine’s sea-going Magura drones carry anti-aircraft missiles. In a spectacular demonstration of how much the technology has advanced, one of them recently shot down a Russian helicopter. And, coming soon, the next generation of Ukraine’s ground-based drones will have grenade launchers and machine guns. They’ll be able to fight alongside infantry on the front lines.
There is, however, one role that humans will always play in war: victim. We may do less of the fighting, but we will continue to do all of the dying.