When it comes to current events, we like to think that we base our opinions about the news on facts. But very often we do not have the facts at hand and may not have the time or the ability to summon them at short notice. Even if we do have a smartphone with us when we are engaged with someone in a discussion, it is very rarely that we actually use it to get the required information to make sure that we are right. We go with what we think we know to be true.
In fact, in my own case, it is when I am pretty sure that I am right about something that I tend to make mistakes because it is then that I don’t bother to check and see. Knowing my failing, I try to be vigilant about this but still trip up from time to time.
From reader Norm, I got this link with some basic statistics that suggests that much of our gut feelings about important statistics may be wildly off, strongly influenced by the amount of attention the subject gets in the news media.
The Ipsos MORI market research firm polled people in 14 countries in the developed world on a range of issues, asking them to estimate things in their own country like the rate of teen pregnancies, percentage of the population who are Muslim or Christian, percentage of immigrants, voting rates in the last major election, unemployment rates, size of ageing population, murder rates, and life expectancy. People tended to wildly overestimate figures if those items figured in political controversies, like the number of Muslims or immigrants or unemployed or teen pregnancies. (The full report is here.)
Based on the results, they ranked countries in order of ignorance. Italy was the worst, followed by the US, South Korea, Poland, Hungary, France, Canada, Belgium, Australia, Great Britain, Spain, Japan, Germany, and Sweden.
To my relief as someone who considers himself a news junkie, I didn’t do too badly with US statistics, getting fairly close to the actual values.
Haven’t read the link yet.
Did they, by chance, do any correlation with stated political leanings? In the US, I suspect there would be a trend.
No, there was no cross-referencing of political views.
Hmmm, these stats just don’t feel right to me. 😉
The worst case of “knowing” a stat that was in actuality wildly different which I have experienced was when I participated in a cruise ship trivia game and tied for first place. A passenger who was British offered to break the tie by asking us each to guess the population of Great Britain, with the closest guess being the winner. I guessed 60 million and my opponent said 65 million. I was proclaimed the winner, but the Brit said that the true figure was 6 million (!). I pointed out that I was pretty sure that London alone had more people than that, but he was adamant. I later looked it up and the figure is more like 64 million, so I should have lost.
I didn’t do too badly with US statistics, getting fairly close to the actual values.
And, of course, a lot of these numbers can change a few percentage points now and then, so it’s hard to be 100%. The one that I couldn’t really get was the “What percentage of people voted in the last major election” because my mind is on 2014, which I know the numbers are quite different from the 2012 numbers that I suspect they were asking about. (I probably would have underestimated those numbers, though.)
Some of these are rather stunning in a “How can people be that stupid?!?” way. People in Italy seriously think 49% are unemployed and looking for work? Then again, maybe they read that as an “or looking for work,” as in better work than they currently have.
And in another case, I’m really disappointed in the US thinking only 56% of the population is Christian. I wonder where that’s all coming from. Is it coming from Evangelicals with their persecution complex? Is it coming from the “Nones” who may be oblivious to just how many Christians there are (as I was once upon a time)? (And, of course, maybe both?)