My personal view of the coronavirus is that outside of China, the mortality rate might significantly rise above what it has now (which is already several times higher than influenza), just as it did with the swine flu pandemic in 2009 (which my sister barely survived, but luckily nobody else in the family got). My reasoning for this is – people in China were probably at least somewhat exposed to the said virus in its non-human-infectious form, or some of its less dangerous relatives, which would give them at least partial immunity. Once the virus spreads to populations that have no immunity to its or to viruses similar to it, it will become much worse.
Since it is a pulmonary disease, our whole family is especially susceptible and in danger, since all of us have asthma, my parents are elderly, my sister has already damaged lungs and my brother is a heavy smoker. I certainly hope not to encounter it, I already had viral bronchitis this year for two weeks and I did not enjoy it in the least.
Saw (part of) an ABC doco on the “beerflu” (as I’ve seen some dub it online) last night which can be seen on iView here :
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/virus
If folks can do that from overseas which, not sure, maybe not? Hopefully others with better net-fu than me (not hard to be!) can find ways to see it if it is blocked outside Oz?
My understanding from that is that with a 2% mortality rate -- and thus 98% survival rate -- the coronavirus is less deadly than SARS and maybe MERS and certainly than the Marburg and Ebola and 1918 Flu viruses. So it really won’t be the end of the world. It apparently is more infectious and spreads more easily but I do think its been exaggerated and over-hyped a bit and used for fear-mongering and by racists with some really nasty results :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/coronavirus-catch-chinese-restaurant-australia-box-hill/11933186
Whilst the beerflu virus is serious and I don’t want to catch it and feel for those with it; I think if you look at the facts and take the recommended precautions -- e.g. as listed here :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/everything-you-need-to-know-about-coronavirus/11918302
Then I’m honestly not that worried by it. Remember too that, if memory serves, most virii get less rather than more deadly as they mutate and evolve which is in their interest to do because killing off your host before they can spread hurts you as a continuing species. (If ‘species’ is the right word where virii are concerned?)
Still, all that noted I am NOT a Doctor or epidemiologist and don’t have any relevant qualifications here and so I will listen to those who are and do and advise all to do likewise and I don’t wish people to be too complacent and un-serious about it at the same time so, yeah.