Ed’s prediction at Dispatches From the Culture Wars (His reasoning is solid and my own reality-based call would be pretty much identical).
This is it, what’s your call? Popular tally, specific states, down ballot races — I might even have a godless prize[s] for anyone who gets scary close.
I am uneasy down in my gut before every election, at least since I started caring about them around ten years ago, this one especially. Obama has only the slimmest of leads, a point or two at best in half a dozen key states. Just a tiny number of voters suppressed by GOP shenanigans and a few nut jobs fired up by racism and other forms of ignorance, would cause this election to break Romney’s way. That’s my gut, but as data driven people, we have to go where the data leads. Nate Silver has a promising prognostication there:
538.com— Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one. …
In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout. It’s this possibility, more than the chance of a successful hail-mary in a state like Pennsylvania, that accounts for most of Mr. Romney’s remaining chances of winning the Electoral College.
I remember when Nate used a Daily Kos screen name based on a hot pepper, how times have changed. He called two elections very closely, 2008 and 2010, if he gets this one right he will be able to write his own ticket on any campaign or news site in America. In short, Nate’s got a lot on the line here, so there’s no reason to think he’s spinning or engaging in wishful thinking in anyway.
Bottom line: Nate Silver tweaked his models overnight with the latest polling data. Today he gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning a second term. We’ll see. Workout Girl will be helping me keep track of the results tonight. If it starts going downhill, I’ll probably just stop blogging and bury my tearful face in her washboard abs and not come out until Thursday.