It’s just one poll, not sure how accurate it will turn out to be, and the election is still weeks away. The Middle East or a zillion other things could blow up between now and then. But … this looks awfully close to an insurmountable lead in Pennsylvania:
Philly.com— The Romney camp clearly has signaled doubts about Pennsylvania by slashing TV ads and candidate appearances. Obama, too, has cut back, and the state lags behind Ohio, Florida, and other swing states as targets for the most intensive campaigning. Here’s why:
The Inquirer survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 9-12, found that 50 percent would vote for Obama if the election were held today, and 39 percent would vote for Romney. Obama’s lead was up from the 9 points found in the first Inquirer poll, Aug. 21-23, in which he led, 51-42. Poll results included voters who were leaning toward a candidate. Both surveys had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Getting to 270 electoral votes without PA is a toughh nut for Team Romney to crack. It’s possible, but most realistic scenarios I’ve seen discussed would depend on Romney winning every other swing state including the ones where Obama has a solid lead.
538 weighs in:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/
Executive summary: This is of course not BAD news for Obama, far from it. But it’s probably just convention bounce. And there are lots of other polls that have him with a much narrower lead in PA and other swing states.
Odds continue to favor Obama, but all signs point to a close one.
I don’t think Nate has this specific poll in his models yet. I’ll ask him if it’s significant, it was embargoed until this morning. I had to sit on it all night!