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Aug 01 2012

Encouraging poll in three critical battle ground states

It’s possible Romney’s over seas gaffes have hurt him more than his team would like to admit. Or maybe it’s just a coincidental outlier. A new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll finds Obama leading Mitt Romney in three key states and by a statistically significant delta in one of them:

CBS News– President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Who could have predicted the Teaparty fueled jihad against birth control and equal rights for over half the electorate would have such an effect? How could voters possibly punish Mitt Romney’s stellar success downsizing and outsourcing US jobs at Bain after gaggles of DC media-villagers sternly assured us that that idea would surely fail? Why does America hate America?

Conventional wisdom says whoever wins at least two of those states wins the election. How accurate that is and how representative this one poll will turn out to be remains to be seen. But friends involved in the campaigns on both sides tell me they will zero in, especially in Ohio and Florida. Increased political ads and a ramped up ground game focused on turnout is sure to emerge in August, because this contest could end up being decided by turnout in either of those two states in less than 100 days.

10 comments

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  1. 1
    Gvlgeologist, FCD

    …this contest could end up being decided by turnout in either of those two states…

    Which is the reason for the voter suppression laws and voter purges being pushed by the GOP.

  2. 2
    Stephen "DarkSyde" Andrew

    Yeap.

  3. 3
    keithb

    Romney may have given up in Pennsylvania:
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/pennsylvania-flaunts-its-importance/

  4. 4
    deanbuchanan

    I’ve recently been trying to figure out who the campaigns are attempting to reach with their message. I had whittled down the number to about 3-4 million but then I found this by Paul Begala.
    It seems reasonable to me. He estimates that 916,643 voters in swing states will decide the presidential election. Total cost per voter that will be spent by the campaigns is $2,182.87.
    Begala writes:

    Don’t expect this swing voter to move any time soon. She knows the election isn’t until November, and she’s not riveted to every gaffe and poll like political junkies are. She’ll watch clips of the conventions, snippets of the debates, and on Nov. 6 she’ll ask herself which candidate can fix our economy for middle-class families like hers. All in all, my guess is she would prefer if the candidates canceled their commercials and just gave her the $2,181.87.

  5. 5
    Stevarious, Public Health Problem

    Romney may have given up in Pennsylvania:

    Oh I hope so. I still have nightmares about when we ran IT for the Palin rally here, and I’m afraid we did a pretty good job, so we’re probably still on the local RNC’s rolodex.

  6. 6
    Jordan Genso

    I’m not that worried even if Romney wins Ohio & Florida (getting the ‘two out of three’), since if President Obama wins Pennsylvania, he’d only need either Colorado or Virginia to meet the 270. Neither of those two are “sure things” by any means, but it means that Romney has to win all four, and he’s currently trailing in all of them.

  7. 7
    lcaution

    A little too much attention to the Presidential race and not enough to the Senate. If the Republicans take it over, Obama will be a lame duck from Day 1.

    And I doubt sincerely that the Republicans will let the Democrats play the filibuster card they way they have. The first order of business will be to change the rules so that the Democrats, even 49 of them, won’t be able to block appointments or legislation.

  8. 8
    lorn

    Lets … see … Mittens will soon have most of a billion dollars in his war chest, figure he will keep a third in reserve … 666 million dollars, divided between Ohio and Florida, …

    Obama has a bit less than that …

    Looks like Florida and Ohio are going to get the biggest, living color, 3-D, multimedia, broadband, cross-platform, advertising enema ever.

    I live in Florida and need to find me a very large rock to hide under until November. It is going to get ugly. Very ugly.

    I suspect that the conflicting waves of propaganda, already warming up, will take a toll and people are going to start to snap. This is going to be a 24 hour and 100 day long Nuremberg rally whipped out on populations that are already iffy on the mental health. And a good proportion of them are armed to the teeth.

    Their buttons pushed too hard and too fast, people are going to come unglued.

    All you mental health professionals and sociologists should head to one of these states to document the slaughter of brain cells and sanity. Come early so you can get the ‘before’ to pair with an ‘after’ shot.

  9. 9
    Pierce R. Butler

    lorn @ # 8: Come early so you can get the ‘before’ to pair with an ‘after’ shot.

    For that, they’ll need to borrow Barack Obama’s time machine. I moved to Florida during the Reagan years, and have no doubt I missed the “sane” era here (if any) by a long shot.

  10. 10
    StevoR : Free West Papua, free Tibet, let the Chagossians return!

    I wonder if the reality of HIRGO* sinking in is going to have much of a political impact too?

    See :

    http://climatecrocks.com/2012/07/19/is-it-warming-yet-more-americans-say-like-duhh/

    Perhaps voters and the people influncing them who have started experiencing the heatwaves, droughts and other HIRGO linked phenomena are starting to wake up to reality here and realise how badly the Climate Change Deniers have damaged us all?

    * Human Induced Rapid Global Overheating because ‘warming” is toomild and “anthropgenic” tootechnical and teh speed and scope are key aspects of the issue.

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