It’s possible Romney’s over seas gaffes have hurt him more than his team would like to admit. Or maybe it’s just a coincidental outlier. A new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll finds Obama leading Mitt Romney in three key states and by a statistically significant delta in one of them:
CBS News— President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.
The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.
Who could have predicted the Teaparty fueled jihad against birth control and equal rights for over half the electorate would have such an effect? How could voters possibly punish Mitt Romney’s stellar success downsizing and outsourcing US jobs at Bain after gaggles of DC media-villagers sternly assured us that that idea would surely fail? Why does America hate America?
Conventional wisdom says whoever wins at least two of those states wins the election. How accurate that is and how representative this one poll will turn out to be remains to be seen. But friends involved in the campaigns on both sides tell me they will zero in, especially in Ohio and Florida. Increased political ads and a ramped up ground game focused on turnout is sure to emerge in August, because this contest could end up being decided by turnout in either of those two states in less than 100 days.