MI Update 9:00 PM CDT: Santorum 36% Romney 40% Paul 11% Gingrich 7% .. w/57% of vote in Romney is up by 20,000 votes. Santorum looks to be heading for a loss, already moving into spin mode saying “We made Romney compete in his home state.”
AZ Update 8:10 PM CDT: Called for Romney
Update 8:25PM CDT: In Michigan, exit polls of those who said religion mattered a “great deal,” voters chose Santorum over Romney by 40 points, about 60 to 20 or so. For those who said the economy mattered most, voters went for the guy who wanted to shutter their state by more than 15 points, about 49 for Romney to Santorum’s 32 or so, via MSNBC.
Update 7:45 PM CDT: Santorum 39% Romney 39% Paul 11% Gingrich 7% .. with 8% of vote in … exit polls show 10% of primary voters are democrat, up several points from 2008.
Update: MSNBC and other sources reporting there is tentative or anecdotal evidence there has been a measurable uptick in cross over voters from indies and dems cmpared to the 2008 GOP primary (Which Romney won by a landslide).
For as long as I can stay awake … Michigan is the big contest (Romney is expected to win walking away in AZ). Most polls in MI are just close, but a few stragglers stay open until 8 PM CDT. Last second polling puts Romney in the lead by a hair. The most important item is that he win, after that, he needs to win decisively, by three or four points minimum. FWIW I think Romney will wn by a more comfortable margin than some expect. I just don’t think conservatives are so mired in their culture war and their info bubbles to give Romney a thumbs down and, by extension, give the hated Obama a big leg up.