Indiana surprises: Sanders wins, Cruz bows out


Yesterday’s primary results in Indiana produced two unexpected results. First off was the surprise win by Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton by five points (52.5% to 47.5%) when the pre-election poll average had Clinton leading by close to 7 points. The relentless media coverage that it was all over for Sanders and that it was time for him to bow out would normally result in a snowball effect where people start drifting to the presumed leader and supporters of the trailing candidate do not bother to vote. That this did not happen and that there was a 12-point difference between polls and the final outcome suggests that many voters still cannot reconcile themselves to the policies Clinton represents and are determined to have their voice heard.

On the Republican side, the surprise was the size of the win by Donald Trump (53.3% to 36.6%). Even though late polls had shown a shift to Trump, the final margin was still surprisingly large, large enough to convince Ted Cruz that it was time to pull the plug on his campaign. This sudden departure took me by surprise. I thought that Cruz would stick it out to the end, that even if the contested convention were to not materialize, then at least to have his name placed in nomination at the convention so that he could make a rousing speech and thus would be able to stake a larger claim to the 2020 nomination. But perhaps he felt that an exit now would be more judicious.

It is true that the last week has been a rough one for Cruz. He has shown the ability to remain unflappable in the face of attacks and criticisms, and even the extremely harsh policies he advocates are delivered in a calm, reasoned voice. But in the last week he seemed to have let Trump and his supporters get under his skin with the needling and heckling, with even bizarre stories about Cruz’s father being involved in the killing of president Kennedy, and we saw that mask slipping and he let loose with a blistering attack on Trump as a “serial philanderer,” “pathological liar” and a “narcissist.” He even said that Trump had admitted to having had a venereal disease though that seems to be a false charge.

So what will those Republicans who warned that Trump would be a disaster for the party do now? The immediate reaction of some was anger and adamant statements of refusal to support Trump. But many of these people are politicians. If they are to have a future in politics, their best bet is to stay with the party because not many politicians have successfully switched parties once they have won elected office. We can expect to see many of the critics of Trump slowly shift back into the fold though they will have to find imaginative ways to explain away their previous criticisms. In addition to Cruz and Fiorina, former candidates Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, and the rest will all have to decide whether to walk back their statements and how or stick with them and see their future as Republicans come to an end.

The short six-day life of Carly Fiorina as a potential vice presidential candidate has come in for its share of mockery, with wags saying that the Cruz-Fiorina merger was as successful as her disastrous merger of HP with Compaq that she engineered when she was the CEO of HP. They also say that she can now once again have the pleasure of laying off workers, this time from the Cruz campaign, the way she laid off 30,000 workers when she was CEO.

God also has some explaining to do to Cruz. Cruz has unashamedly invoked god all along the way in his political career and made an unapologetic pitch for their support in this race. He did manage to convince many of the big name leaders of the evangelical movement to support his candidacy.

Back to the Democratic race, Clinton still leads in the pledged delegates 1682 to 1361 and in the unelected superdelegates by 520 to 39. In total, there are 4051 pledged delegates and 712 superdelegates. Sanders will need to win about 66% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority of them and thus lay a plausible claim that he is the party’s choice, even if the superdelegates give Clinton the overall majority. This seems unlikely. But his continued success in the race will, I hope, make the party realize that large numbers of people are really responding to his message and they must advocate for those policies if they are to win.

Next Tuesday will be the West Virginia primary and, although the number of delegates at stake is small (just 29) it will be interesting to see how that turns out. The following Tuesday (May 17) sees Oregon with 61 delegates and Kentucky with 55.

Comments

  1. sonofrojblake says

    You’re right: the next steps for the #neverTrump crew will be fascinating to watch.

  2. moarscienceplz says

    This sudden departure took me by surprise. I thought that Cruz would stick it out to the end, that even if the contested convention were to not materialize, then at least to have his name placed in nomination at the convention so that he could make a rousing speech and thus would be able to stake a larger claim to the 2020 nomination. But perhaps he felt that an exit now would be more judicious.

    Either on my local news or on CBS This Morning (I can’t remember which) there was speculation that Cruz bailed out quickly in order to run as an independent. He may be thinking that there are enough #neverTrump votes out there that he could get a Republican Party 2.0 to coalesce around him. If he is thinking this way, I think he is delusional about how much support he really has, but it sure would be fun to see him try.

  3. says

    He may be thinking that there are enough #neverTrump votes out there that he could get a Republican Party 2.0 to coalesce around him.

    He’s too unlikeable. If he’s got any sense he’ll realize that god actually doesn’t like him and he should spend his time figuring out how to have a comfortable remainder of his life living under a rock somewhere.

  4. blbt5 says

    Regarding the Sanders win, if by a 7-point lead in “polling” you mean dead even (Indiana polls are notoriously difficult due to local survey laws and were all over the place). And if by responding to his message you mean blindly accepting his fantasies, then sure. As a charter member with Bernie of Democratic Socialists of America, his stated aim to take over the nomination even if behind in pledged delegates is obviously undemocratic. And his plans for health care and universal education with no credible education or funding are patently unsocialist. Ironically in 1982 DSA envisioned that a socialist might eventually run for president, but without any mass understanding of socialism, that person would become merely a cult figure and a demagogue, possibly sacrificing the real socialist gains by splitting democrats and allowing the triumph of a neofascism. Now we have Trump, but fortunately Hillary will win for the Democrats. Also look what happened in Maine with LePage who triumphed by splitting democrats and progressives. In any event the authoritarian political psychology of the presidency will never elect a tax-hiking grumpy grandpa, however fresh and shiny. I especially found his self-appointed gatekeeping for holier-than-thou “progressives” nauseating. Nevertheless I’m glad Bernie made his run, and it has done some good. If nothing else it would seem to indicate a fading of the old socialist bugaboo and a new space for progressive politics, paradoxically coexisting with an even more radically entrenched regressive coalition of conservatives and plutocrats. Without eliminating Citizens United, gerrymandering and Voter ID, it’s hard to see anything moving forward.

  5. doublereed says

    Okaaaay, ignoring all the nonsense lorn wrote.

    I tend to agree with TYT, that Bernie’s only real way to win would be if Clinton is indicted. That could make the superdelegates uneasy enough to vote for Bernie and tip the scales. That’s obviously undemocratic, but that’s the exact situation that the superdelegates are for. This makes the delegate math still very important.

    Of course the FBI may purposefully wait until the general election to indict Clinton. Or maybe Clinton is so above the law that the FBI investigation will disappear.

    And of course, Clinton could actually try to unite the Democratic Party by taking Sanders (or maybe Warren) as VP. It would obviously be a good strategic move on the part of the democrats, but I doubt such a thing would happen.

  6. Holms says

    And if by responding to his message you mean blindly accepting his fantasies, then sure.

    If by fantasies you mean plain reality as evinced by other nations, then sure.

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