Since I have been taking about probabilities recently, here is a little puzzle for people to ponder overnight.
Suppose you live in a place that has a constant chance of being struck by lightning at any time through the year. Suppose that the strikes are random: every day the chance of a strike is the same, and the rate works out to one strike a month. Your house is hit by lightning today, Monday. What is the most likely day for the next bolt to strike your house?
Feel free to post your answers in the comments. I will give the answer tomorrow along with a discussion.
Blogs with homework. Now there’s a novel concept!
Update: The solution and discussion are posted here.