My suspicion is that Coakley will win the Massachusetts special senate election handily. Reasons for the media polls/buzz being that it is ZOMFGCLOSE!!111!!ELEVENTEEN!!11!!! are as follows:
(1) Coddled rich media scumbags have multiple orgasms when Democrats “get their comeuppance”, and every single fucking bit of their narrative efforts anticipate and are aimed at achieving total splooge all over the fucking place.
(2) Normal human beings–i.e., non-wingnut-fuck-ups–would rather stab their eyes out with a hot poker than spend time on the phone answering the questions of some sleazeball political polling operative.