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Members of Team Obama still believe the Electoral College favors them; they see little or no prospect for the opposition to be able to make significant gains with Hispanics, single women or young voters; they think Medicare and tax cuts for the wealthy are untrumpable trump cards; they view Romney as a weak candidate, whose résumé and background leave him vulnerable to populist attack; and they think their candidate’s skills and likability are far too powerful to derail.

… the White House feels the balance remains on its side, especially where it counts: in the key battleground states. Team Obama is certain that, barring a national collapse, Michigan and Pennsylvania are locked up for the incumbent — a reality acknowledged by a number of Romney senior aides. The Obamans see Romney as fatally flawed in Ohio, with his venture-capital background, opposition to the auto rescue and overseas financial holdings. Even North Carolina, which some handicappers have moved safely to Romney’s column, remains in play, the re-elect believes, because of its strong grassroots organization, which the Democrats expect to grow even more during their Charlotte convention.