Election projections for your riding; who to vote for to simply beat Cons

Canada’s election at the moment looks like a choice between another Conservative minority, or a Conservative majority government, unless everyone were to suddenly vote Liberal strategically. In Canada, one can gain a majority government (e.g., enough seats to mean your party basically wins every parliamentary motion) with a mere 35% of the popular vote with our current political breakdown. That means that with a minority government, it’s well possible that at least 65% of the country disagrees with the party in power. In the case of Conservatives vs. Everyone Else, that is assuredly true. The Conservative Party of Canada, since being created in a coalition between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform TeaParty a few years ago, makes up the entirety of the right half of the political spectrum. The Liberals, NDP, Bloc and Greens all make up the left, with the only outlier that could possibly be called right-wing being the Bloc, whose prime motivating reason for existence is secession of Quebec from the rest of the country.

So we have a political climate today wherein the Right has unified into a coalition for the purpose of leading our country off a cliff (or more accurately, siphoning money from the pockets of the average Canadian and directly into the pockets of big businesses, as though Reaganomics ever worked for anyone!), and the only way to kick them out is to form some sort of coalition on the left. Well, the only way short of strategic voting, which really hurts when you don’t particularly like one of the alternatives.

If you’re willing to suck it up and swallow your pride in order to vote strategically for the sole purpose of tossing the bums out, and just need to know which party to vote for in your riding, here’s an excellent tool, wherein you can find out what the current projections are for your specific riding and therefore decide whether to vote strategically for the Libs, NDP or Bloc, depending.

Sorry, my loyal Green readers… they’re simply not competitive anyplace at the moment, even in Vancouver where they’re running double-digit candidates. However, if you want to vote for the competitive challenger in your riding, you can ask someone in a less competitive riding to vote for your first choice via PairVote.ca — that way your party doesn’t technically lose your vote, and you still get to make a difference in the more competitive race.

Or you could, you know, vote Conservative if you really want to. Or if you’re unmotivated, you can just let the Conservative in your riding win. You know, if you happen to think that the problem with Health Care is that we have TOO MUCH of it. Or that the economy would benefit most from CEOs pays increasing while normal folks’ wages stagnate. Or if you think they’re all just going to pull the same bullshit nonsense that the Conservatives actually have as party planks, and the other parties actively oppose. Whatever. It’s up to you, of course. I merely reserve the right to hate you for not doing whatever you can to stop the avowed party of privilege.

Vote, please. Your vote could very well mean the difference between us ending up with the same nonsense we’re already living in a Conservative minority, or much worse in a Conservative majority.


  1. Erin says

    Wow, only 53.9% of my riding voted in 2008 (I don’t remember if I managed to get Liam to the polling station for that one or not). Of those approx 50,000 people, 65.1% voted Conservative. Project Democracy says there’s no hope for my riding but, if that other 46.1% voted (and all voted Liberal), then there would be a chance that we could knock out one long-standing MP. Now how to go about convincing 27,000 people to actually vote and all vote Liberal in a matter of days…

  2. says

    You might have to try weapons-based coercion. It’s the only way.

    Or you could trade your vote on pairvote.ca since it’s not competitive. I know at least three Greens who might benefit from such a swap.

  3. says

    I knew before I even checked Project Democracy that there was no hope in my riding. When a jackass like Stockwell Day can be parachuted into your riding and still win with double the numbers of the second place Liberals, you know there isn’t any hope for progressives here.

  4. untitled83 says

    I just have a quick question I’ve wanted to ask a strong liberal, or should i say a strong anti-conservative. I stumbled on your blog so here you go. Why is it so wrong to vote conservative. I work. I appreciate the effort of workers, of small businesses and of even large corporations. Even large corporations where small once. They worked hard and made there way to huge corporations which employ thousands of people. I don’t see anything wrong with them, or myself for that matter, wanting to keep the money we make as opposed to paying it in taxes.

    If one believes its wrong to keep all that money and that it should be shared, then we should appeal to their morals and have them donate it. I prefer that than employing something like forced charity.

    What are your thoughts on this? It doesn’t seem irrational to me. Why the strong anti-conservativeness?

  5. says

    That’s actually a really good set of questions, and they’ll take thorough answers to be properly treated. Mind if I make an answer a blog post proper? I hope not, since I plan on doing so. :)

  6. says


    While Jason crafts a thoughtful, well-researched post, I’ll do what I do best and make a rash, rhetorical response to you.

    I’m anti-conservative because I used to be a conservative, but I try to learn from my mistakes.

    I believe corporations need to be subjected to regulations and taxation because they don’t exist in a vacuum. Canadian society and government provides the social structure, public education, police, military, regulations and access to resources that allow businesses to exist and thrive. Therefore, corporations should be required to give back to the country that they take so much from.

    Businesses are built for one thing, and one thing only: to turn a profit. There is nothing wrong with attempting to make a profit, but historical evidence shows that pretty much every inch of progress (hourly pay, overtime, workplace safety, etc) that we enjoy as workers today had to be clawed, sometimes violently, from the grip of the robber barons and corporate masters of the past.

    The conservative fantasy of the “responsible corporation” is precisely that: a fantasy. Tax cuts don’t create job growth, companies will attempt to side-step even the most reasonable environmental regulations (or lobby hard to strike them down), and the last 30 years of supply-side economics has slowly allowed the rich to become the super-rich at the expense of the health of the middle-class.

    These failed conservative economic policies have been coupled with the the socially regressive desires of the Reform wing (which I once called home) of the Conservative Party Of Canada, who generally wish to build a Christian theocracy in Canada.

    Lastly, the Harper government was tentatively given power based on a platform of honest, transparent government. They responded by being one of the most secretive, paranoid governments in Canadian history, and enjoy the distinction of being the first and only Canadian government ever to be found in contempt of Parliament.

    I’m not Christian, I think the government should generally stay out of peoples’ personal lives, I believe that Canada should help the less fortunate and protect the public health, I can’t stand hypocritical, wannabe dictators, and I’ve learned that I’m never going to be rich. Therefore, the CPC has given me zero reasons to vote for them, and given me many reasons to actively battle against their ascent to power.

  7. says

    I will wager that Jason knew I would chime in here, I’ll leave the evidence to him, but I have an answer.

    First, I will do what likely no-one else here will do and give Stephen Harper credit where credit is due.
    He didn’t dismantle the policies in this country that shielded us from major harm during the global recession, though I think ideologically, he really wanted to. The financial sector policies in Canada (all Liberal, though Chretien and Martin flirted with softening them) prevented Canadian banks from unreasonable speculation in mortgages. Our “nanny-state” prevents Canadians from overextending their credit, so our personal bankruptcy rate was far lower then comparable G-20 economies.
    So through no fault of his own, Stephen Harper failed to strip us of the protections that saved our economy.
    Good for him. He deserves credit for his Neo-Conservative incompetence.

    The largest factor in Canada’s success was our dependance on a resource based economy. A larger portion of our nations GDP is tied up in material goods. Even a devalued truckload of lumber or government rationed oil is worth more than a foreclosed mortgage in a real estate bubble, or venture capital stocks in a recession. Too many economies were flirting with imaginary currency, where we were sitting on tangible assets.

    Stephen Harper aimed to destroy our economy, but through his inability to follow his idealistic agenda, and by virtue of finding himself in a sheltered economy, he failed spectacularly. Then, he asked us to pat him on the back for a job well done, as if he had a hand in it.

    So I hope that clears up your follow up question “Didn’t he skillfully navigate us through a global recession?”, which you were bound to ask after listening to us list our grievances.

    Now I will address your questions:

    Why is it so wrong to vote conservative. I work. I appreciate the effort of workers, of small businesses and of even large corporations. Even large corporations where small once. They worked hard and made there way to huge corporations which employ thousands of people. I don’t see anything wrong with them, or myself for that matter, wanting to keep the money we make as opposed to paying it in taxes.

    Are you aware that we have a corporate tax rate that is lower than half of the G-8 nations and in the bottom half of the G-20? Are you aware that our rate is much lower than the US rate? Would you be surprised to know that this lower corporate tax rate comes along with healthcare and a social safety net that exceeds that of the countries that tax corporations more? Would it be fair to think that healthcare and CPP and EI help to dissipate employer-pay costs for employees?

    Corporations benefit from the taxes they pay- they benefit directly. I can understand wanting to maximize your after-tax income, but at what cost to your bottom line and to a flourishing society?

    If one believes its wrong to keep all that money and that it should be shared, then we should appeal to their morals and have them donate it. I prefer that than employing something like forced charity.

    Let’s assume that your libertarian utopia actually comes to pass. Let’s assume that benevolent corporations pay employees the value of a good healtcare plan. What do you suppose is the cost to that business? Now, let’s assume your dystopia includes private, for profit health care. Do you think the costs of health services go up, or down? I think (and I think the US system lays this fact bare) that private health costs the patient more. So our benevolent corporation now would need to pitch in more money to keep a status quo healthcare system.
    Or, do you concede that corporations have no moral duty to pay employees the equivalent value of universal healthcare? So they make the same (or less) money, and are now responsible for more costs. So workers actually keep LESS of their income. Corporations get a free ride.
    How do you think that these now economically stressed citizens are going to react to “moral suasion” charity? Do you think they are going to take the less money they have and use it to support others on principle? I’m glad you don’t care about the poor, or the working families, or students, the elderly, or people struggling paycheque to paycheque. You think everyone should just struggle to survive like we did in frontier societies. If you die of starvation, too bad…your fault. If you get cancer and can’t budget for health insurance…you made your own bed. If you get laid off and have mouths to feed, you should have put your money away for this kind of thing-even though your employer only paid you enough to keep you coming in every day.
    Yes, libertarian societies are a real utopia. You can keep it.

  8. says

    Odd, it didn’t auto-linkback here. Oh well. For those of you subscribed to this thread, I posted my reply here. It covers much of the same ground as Sinned and George, but hey, that ground needs repeating. Kindly read it when and if you can.

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