Election 2015: live blogging from 9pm and early predictions

000Death might not frighten me, but I’d rather leave too early than meet my end, as singer Errol Brown met his, on the eve of an election, denied knowledge of the result – like being forced to leave the world cup final at half time. (Brown was a Tory, it turns out. I’ll say no more.)

In a few hours the UK goes to the polls for the closest election in a century. I’ll be up all night live-blogging results – visit this site from 9pm London time for a running commentary. For now the numbers point consistently to a dead heat, no party winning a majority: the coming days and perhaps weeks, all evidence suggests, will be a race to Downing Street via minority government. Second-guessing elections, let alone this one, is asking for egg on one’s face, but I’ll tentatively predict the following:

The Tories will again be the largest single party. The real question, if the polls are right (and there’s no reason to think otherwise) is not if they’ll have more seats than Labour but how many: some forecasts show Miliband’s party trailing Cameron’s by several dozen seats, others by one or two. This will affect not just who can assemble a majority, but who’ll be seen as more entitled to by the public. Update: YouGov’s final seat projection gives Labour 276 seats, the Tories 272 – so maybe not! (Good thing I like eggs.)

Scotland’s revolution will be both live and televised. As with the wider national picture, a wide variety of pollsters with different methods all predict the same – it looks like most or all Scotland’s Westminster seats will fall into SNP hands, scalping a number of Labour and Lib Dem higher-ups, Jim Murphy and both Alexanders (Douglas and Danny) among them. [Read more…]

Spoiler free thoughts on the Avengers sequel

Having just been to see Age of Ultron, some brief spoiler free thoughts.

  • It’s not quite as much fun as the first one. Like much of Phase II, this film’s a touch greyer than what came before – plottier, more serious and less instantly satisfying – and feels like the middle chapter it is. Whedonisms still come thick and fast, particularly early on – the script gets a lot of mileage out of one running gag – but aren’t quite as fresh this time around: no moment feels as standout as Hulk wiping the floor with Loki.
  • It’s very much an ensemble piece. Ignore reviewers who say otherwise – there are nine or ten Avengers by the climax (and we get more than one lineup change), but not one character gets lost. As in the first film, true to Whedon’s talent for big casts, everyone gets an arc and time to shine. In particular, lesser Avengers get the strong backstory they deserve. (Feminists will, I fear, have things to say about Black Widow in this chapter.)
  • The plot’s finer points fly by a bit fast. Whedon, at his best spinning simple narratives, wisely gives up exposition rather than character development. It’s hard to talk about this without spoiling anything, but the details of Ultron’s plan and Tony Stark’s response are a bit of a blur just prior to the third act. The quips, character beats and action are all strong enough to compensate, but it’ll benefit from repeat views.
  • Most of the popular theories are wrong.
  • Prepare to be trolled by the ending. Twice.

Spoilers welcome in the comments – stop reading here if you haven’t watched.

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Why I’m not voting in 2015

When I vote it’s for one of two reasons – because a party I like can win or because one I dislike needs help beating one I hate. When you think like an anarchist, all voting’s tactical: I’d vote Labour in Sheffield Hallam, Lib Dem in Oxford West, Green in Brighton Pavilion, SNP in a heartbeat in Scotland. I’d stay home in a Tory/Ukip marginal or a safe seat. I’m staying home this year.

000Last time round I voted Labour in Oxford East, then a swing sweat with a Labour majority of 963. Copeland, where I’m now registered, has had four MPs, all Labour, in the last eighty years, who’ve always done better locally than their party nationwide. Labour is sure to increase its vote share this year, so I’m convinced incumbent Jamie Reed will too. Ukip may be a problem – it’s their sort of seat – but my sense is they’ll take at least as many votes off the Conservatives, his real competitors. Factoring in the Lib Dem collapse, I don’t think Reed will need every last vote, so I’m not giving him mine.

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Introducing Ashley F Miller (and their blog’s new look)

Two things you might not know about Ashley Miller: first, they’re an extraordinary painter; second, they have an ‘F’, absent till recently from the blogroll. (No, I don’t know what it’s for.)

Ashley came to me late last year requesting a new blog banner. This week, I finally finished work on it – or rather, on all six versions. (Only elite #FTBullies have multiple banners.)

AFM18

AFM16

AFM11

AFM8

AFM9

AFM7

Ashley also asked for a squarer logo suitable for business cards and other things. After a drawn-out struggle visualising ‘AFM’, I seem to have come back to geometry again.

AFM4AFM3AFM5AFM6

 

Making-of post coming soon, and yes, you can hire me.

Mean time, start remembering the ‘F’.

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Thoughts on a movemnent: a “shock jock” blogger responds to the Secular Policy Institute

The Global Secular Policy Institute Council declares on its website:

The secular movement has a problem, in that some of our foremost leaders get media attention by causing controversy. While this helps them draw in followers, it causes an atmosphere of infighting in the secular community that hinders us from partnering, takes our eye off the ball of important issues, and makes us look crankypants to outsiders. No wonder the stereotype of a secular person is condescending and angry. . . .

We want to positively partner with anyone who will work with us, including religious organizations. We don’t bash religion and we seek to partner with everyone. . . . we also avoid partnering in some situations. We believe the secular movement should stop rewarding those who cause discord. Why are ‘shock jock’ bloggers invited to lecture at major secular conferences? Freedom of speech is a confusing issue, but it means that each person can speak freely through his or her own channel. It does not mean that angry voices have a right to dominate unmoderated discussions on our own Facebook pages and forums. . . .

Apparently we are not alone in wanting to look more professional as a movemnent to the outside world. This week, SPI coalition member Atheist Ireland publicly dissociated itself from blogger PZ Myers in an open letter. What are your thoughts? Do you feel that strident internal criticism makes us stronger, or that our generosity to be inclusive to all voices is being taken advantage of? Let us know on our Facebook page and on Twitter.

What are my thoughts? Numerous would be a start. [Read more…]

I wouldn’t usually do this, but…

…in light of current events, it strikes me as necessary to quote my own comment policy, aspects of which were modelled on Pharyngula‘s.

I’m a firm believer in culture war and punching up alike: shade-throwing can comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable. Anger is not the same as abuse. Being vicious is not the same as being a bully. Hatred is not the same as bigotry. For me and many readers of this blog, just as it was for countless historical activists, striking a strident tone is part of confronting injustice and overcoming abuse. If you dispute the content of things people here say – if you think they’re being unfair, inaccurate or irresponsible or doing harm – say so, but don’t ever tone-police them just because you don’t like their manners: manners have never been the friend of the downtrodden.

And then there’s this. We good?

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Atheist Ireland’s statement on PZ Myers, with added links to actual things he actually said

Michael Nugent doesn’t much like PZ Myers. After writing 32 posts, 350 pages and 75,000 words to that effect since September, he’s now roped in his national org Atheist Ireland, whose ‘executive committee’ (never hitherto mentioned on the group’s website) cosign what reads like blog post 33.

Unlike Nugent’s own posts, the statement doesn’t provide any actual sources, so – for the sake of ethical conduct – I decided I’d add them and let people come to their own judgements. Admittedly, I see why his colleagues might have opposed embedding links. Once you insert them, the whole thing looks like a thicket of more complex points, less dramatic when viewed in context – not to mention a little… obsessive?

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(Almost) live tweets from the leaders’ debate

In case you didn’t know, the UK has an election next month. Just under an hour ago, the first-ever debate between seven of our party leaders finished. (Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National Party has been called the winner. I don’t disagree, but more on that soon.) Video is below – skip to 4.05 for the debate.

Since our site doesn’t let me live-blog, here are my tweets from during the programme from those who care.

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“I didn’t come here to defend myself” – Mads Ananda Lodahl gives the world the queer 101 it needs

I don’t enjoy many gay YouTube videos – most ‘coming out’ clips seem to show vulnerable queer kids tearfully accepting what scraps straight parents throw their way who spew patronising bullshit. I don’t enjoy that many gay TED talks either – Mads Ananda Lodahl’s TEDx talk from Copenhagen two years ago, which I stumbled across the other day, is a refreshing exception.

Some highlights (see a full transcript here):

For the last ten years, I have been writing articles and giving lectures to young people about queer theory and politics. You might think that makes me an expert at being gay, but if anything, it makes me an expert at understanding ‘normal’. ‘Queer’ means a lot of different things, but something that is central to the queer perspective is to turn the focus away from the people who deviate from the straight norm onto the straight norm itself – to stop asking questions like ‘Why do people become gay?’ and ‘Why do gays have to act like that?’ and start asking the big question: how did normal become normal? That is, how did the straight norm become so strong – so integrated into every part of our lives, our societies and our selves – that for us to even begin to understand what the straight world order is… is like asking a fish to describe water?

I don’t want to be normal. I didn’t come here today to defend myself – I didn’t come to defend homosexuals or women or transgender people. I came today to attack. I came to declare a war, today, on the straight world order. I came to strike matches and to throw rocks, and I came with a toothpick for you if you’ve got the straight world order stuck between your teeth, and with a pair of pliers to pull it out of your foot if you’ve stepped on it. I may be at war with the straight world order, but I am at peace with myself – and the first thing I do every morning when I wake up is to thank the universe and the stars that I am a faggot. I am disgusted – not by heterosexuals, but by the straight world order, and I want no part of it. No thank you. The Gay Liberation Front had it right in 1971, when they said ‘We don’t want a piece of that pie. That pie is rotten.’

Be aware of it when you have certain expectations of people’s sex, gender and sexuality – and realise that they might not live up to your expectations, and that that’s not a problem. That is not a threat to you. It is not a mistake or a failure that you need to fix – it’s not something that people do to get your attention or to provoke you. It is the way they live their lives – and you don’t need to ask about it, stare at it, comment on it or try to correct it. What you need to do is, you need to respect it.

At last a queer 101 I can get behind.

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“We find them everywhere” – fundamentalisms and BBC One’s Big Questions

Is The Big Questions a good or bad thing? Maybe.

In February, ComRes polled British Muslims for the BBC. Predictably, the more dramatic data points were sensationalised; amid the headlines, two interesting questions got ignored. How many respondents, they asked, sympathised with people who fought ‘against western interests’ – and how many knew other Muslims who sympathised with Al-Qaeda or IS soldiers? Results came in respectively at 11 (compared with 85) and 8 (compared with 89) percent, figures within each other’s margins of error. This might not seem much on the face of it, but depending on what further research turns up, it could tell us something about the human geography of jihad.

Polls have long shown support for groups like Al-Qaeda is low in the UK, but to my knowledge, no measure has been taken of how diffuse it is. To give an example of the difference, something like eight percent of people plan to vote Lib Dem, but that group is spread out enough that most of us still know someone who will; conversely, only slightly fewer intend to vote Green, but they’re less evenly dotted around. The ComRes poll suggests Muslims who sympathise with the Islamic State are more like Green Party voters, a tight-knit clique known mostly to each other rather than a fringe across Muslim communities.

Why do I bring this up? At Leaving Fundamentalism, Jonny Scaramanga writes about appearing on The Big Questions, BBC One’s Sunday morning show where religious and secular guests debate ‘ethics’. (I was invited on two years ago, only for the message to sit in my undiscovered ‘Other’ folder. Thanks, Facebook.) The format, to an infamous degree, is what broadcasters tend to call ‘robust’, never less so than in the political rows that, as Jonny attests, predominate. Perhaps because priests and imams aren’t the best people to consult on climate change, more blood is sometimes shed than light, such that it’s tempting to suggest the series be renamed The Short Answers. What about the guests, though? [Read more…]