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IAEA: Iran Nowhere Near a Nuclear Weapon

As many on the right and within Israel continue to beat the drums of war and want an invasion of Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued a report saying that Iran has complied with the requirements of a negotiated arrangement and is now nowhere near being able to produce even a single nuclear weapon.

Iran has neutralized most of its stockpile of higher-grade enriched uranium that could be turned quickly into the core of a nuclear weapon, the U.N. nuclear agency said Friday, leaving the country with only about a fifth of what it would need for such a purpose.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a in a quarterly report that Iran now has less than 90 pounds of the material.

The report also said Tehran was meeting all other obligations under an agreement reached four months ago in Geneva that serves as a prelude to a comprehensive deal now being negotiated.

The findings are likely to be welcomed by the six powers trying to negotiate an end to the decade-old dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has consistently denied any interest in obtaining atomic weapons, saying it is only interested in civilian nuclear power, something allowed under the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The marketing campaign prior to a war is nearly always based on lies and the first lie that is told is that there is an imminent threat to our very survival. Even Hitler sold his invasion of Poland as a response to an imminent threat. It’s a good idea not to believe such nonsense.

Comments

  1. frankniddy says

    Considering Iran has been weeks from a nuclear weapon since I was in diapers (I’m in my early 30s), I don’t think this is going to sway any neocons.

  2. alanb says

    The problem here is that there will always be some uncertainty about how quickly Saddam Iran can acquire nuclear weapons. But we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.

  3. colnago80 says

    Ah gee, and Frankenberger advised Chamberlain that he would be satisfied with the Sudetenland and wouldn’t make any more territorial demands on what was left of Czechoslovakia. How did that work out?

    We never seem to learn the lesson that appeasement does not pay. The current “negotiations” with the Islamofascists that run Iran are as futile as were Chamberlain’s negotiations with Schickelgruber at the Munich Conference in 1938. Frankenberger knew what he wanted; he told the world about in in Mein Kampf. The Islamofascists that run Iran have also told us what then want, namely the annihilation of the State of Israel and Iranian hegemony over the entire Middle East, including control of the world’s oil supply.

    There’s only one language that a murdering rapist like Schickelgruber or the Ayatollah Khamenei understands, namely a knee to the groin.

  4. zmidponk says

    I seem to remember there was a report done by the same organisation, in 2003, about Iraq, which came to the conclusion that there basically was no WMD program to speak of. If the US and UK governments respond to this report in the same way they responded to that one, we’re going to have troops on the ground in Iran fairly shortly.

  5. beergoggles says

    “I knew before the war that Iraq didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction. How’d I know? Because America doesn’t invade countries with weapons of mass destruction. That’s dangerous. So there was Bush saying ‘We’re going to invade you Saddam because you have weapons of mass destruction,’ and Saddam saying, ‘America, I have no weapons of mass destruction.’ Meanwhile, you had the guy in North Korea over there saying ‘Look at me, I have a nuclear bomb’ and we say ‘Shut up. Nobody was talking to you.’ ”
    – Dave Chappelle

    Iran isn’t an exception to that..

  6. colnago80 says

    Re beergoggles @ #5

    Saddam didn’t have nuclear weapons because the IAF took out his reactor in 1981.

  7. Hercules Grytpype-Thynne says

    @colnago80

    I don’t know about anyone else, but as soon as I encounter the name “Frankenberger” in a comment I stop reading.

  8. Artor says

    Colnago, WTD are you ranting about? Appeasement? Iran hasn’t made any territorial demands that I know of. Did “appeasement” suddenly get redefined to mean, “refraining from bombing the fuck out of anyone at any time, for any reason?” You sound like one of those novelty toys that spouts a pre-recorded line when someone pokes your button. Exactly like one of those things.

  9. D. C. Sessions says

    Appeasement is when you don’t use your military superiority to launch a pre-emptive strike on another country.

    For instance, the USA’s current appeasement policy towards Canada.

  10. colnago80 says

    Re D. C. Sessions @ #10

    Ole D. C. has joined the 100% wrong club. Appeasement is when one gives into demands of an aggressor. Just like Chamberlain did at Munich in 1938. AFAIK, Canada isn’t committing aggression against anyone. By contrast, Iran is committing aggression via their support of the Assad Government in Syria and their support of the Hizbollah terrorists in Lebanon.

  11. says

    Appeasement is when one gives into demands of an aggressor.

    So basically world politics right now is based around appeasing the United States?

  12. busterggi says

    You gonna believe the IAEA? Ever try to follow the instructions that come with the furniture they sell? Its all in Swedish! Oh I admit they have a nice food court and decent prices but still…

  13. Synfandel says

    “WTD” worked for me, Artor. I just heard Stewie Griffin saying “What the deuce!”

  14. dantalion says

    @Colnago #3

    “The Islamofascists that run Iran have also told us what then want, namely the annihilation of the State of Israel and Iranian hegemony over the entire Middle East, including control of the world’s oil supply.”

    Bullsh*t. This never happened. It is only so frequently reported as having been said because Iran has angered the fascists who run Israel and american companies who want to control the world’s oil supply.

  15. colnago80 says

    Re dantalion @ #15

    It is only so frequently reported as having been said because Iran has angered the Fascists who run Israel and American companies who want to control the world’s oil supply.

    Of course, and Schickelgruber’s threats to make Europe Judenfrei also never happened. It was all due to the propaganda of the Jews who ran the world via the Protocols of Zion and the translations of Mein Kampf where he proposed just this were all mistranslated by the nefarious plotters. End snark.

  16. Synfandel says

    AFAIK, Canada isn’t committing aggression against anyone.

    Yeah, we’re more passive-aggressive. We take out our aggression by inflicting people like Celine Dion and Justin Bieber on US pop culture.

  17. Al Dente says

    Hercules Grytpype-Thynne @7

    I don’t know about anyone else, but as soon as I encounter the name “Frankenberger” in a comment I stop reading.

    Did colnago80 parade his historical revisionism again? I took care of his silliness some time ago:

    Comment by colnago80 blocked. [unhush]​[show comment]

  18. colnago80 says

    Re Synfandel @ #17

    Hey, I haven’t seen much about ole Justin lately. Has he decided that a low profile for a while is a good idea? Or are his various legal problems stifling his youthful exuberance?

  19. colnago80 says

    Re #12

    No need to appease the USA with the wimpster, Barack Osama in power.

  20. alanb says

    I propose a poll. Who is more annoying: Bryan Fischer, Glenn Beck, or colnago80?

  21. says

    Ah gee, and Frankenberger advised Chamberlain that he would be satisfied with the Sudetenland and wouldn’t make any more territorial demands on what was left of Czechoslovakia.

    Ah gee, that has exactly jack shit to do with this issue, which isn’t about territorial conquest.

    We never seem to learn the lesson that appeasement does not pay.

    How is it “appeasement” to acknowledge that Iran doesn’t have a certain capability? Was it “appeasement” to admit that Iraq didn’t have any WMDs?

  22. colnago80 says

    Re Raging Bee @ #23

    What the fuck do you think is going on in Syria? And I don’t accept the assessment of the IAEA, which has been poo pooing the drive of the Islamofascists in Iran to develop nuclear weapons. “The reason they haven’t gotten them already is due to the indefatigable efforts of the Mossad and the CIA which have used software like Stuxnet to sabotage the hardware and cancelling the tickets of Iranian nuclear scientists.

  23. dingojack says

    Perhaps it’s my tired eyes, but read the headline as:
    IKEA: Iran Nowhere Near a Nuclear Weapon
    and thought – a Swedish furniture chainstore knows Iran’s proximity to nukes?!?
    Oh wait….
    :D Dingo

  24. says

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a in a quarterly report that Iran now has less than 90 pounds of the material.

    Oh, please! If zero pounds was enough to invade Iraq over…

     
    Hercules Grytpype-Thynne “@colnago80 I don’t know about anyone else, but as soon as I encounter the name “Frankenberger” in a comment I stop reading.”
    That’s idiotic. You should stop at “colnago80″.

     
    alanb “I propose a poll. Who is more annoying: Bryan Fischer, Glenn Beck, or colnago80?”
    I can’t answer until I find out if they walked in to a bar or were in a boat.

     
    dingojack “Perhaps it’s my tired eyes, but read the headline as:
    “IKEA: Iran Nowhere Near a Nuclear Weapon ”
    and thought – a Swedish furniture chainstore knows Iran’s proximity to nukes?!?
    Oh wait….”

    busterggi’s was better. And earlier. Don’t hold it against him. Hold a balloon against him instead. Then rub it and watch his hair stick up. I’m pretty sure I lost my train of thought there.

  25. sigurd jorsalfar says

    Then now would be the perfect time to attack Iran, when they can’t fight back, amirite?

  26. OldEd says

    “Iran now has less than 90 lbs of material…”

    Somebody ought to do some research on critical masses, especially with regard to implosion weapons. Add boosted weapons, as well.

    Also: with regard to the goals of the Islamofascists running Iran: they may not, at this time, express their territorial goals out loud, but then they don’t have to. They are expressing their religious goals quite well, thank you. Just look at the situation in Iraq, which we so very badly bungled. You have two camps – Sunni and Shia – both followers of Muhammad – supposedly – which contain people both ready, willing and able to slaughter each other side in as great a number as they can manage. As well as other, smaller, less violent groups, which both sides will pick on at the drop of a hat.

    And once they have achieved their religious goals, the territorial goals just fall into their laps.

    If you think about it, taking over Iraq, for example, as opposed to dictating it’s policy is a mistake. If you take it over you loose it’s vote in the UN…

    The Shah may have had his draw-backs – most of us do – but at least he didn’t blow up movie theaters filled with people simply because they hadn’t been to prayer at the proper time – no, that is left to the hard-core rabid of the sects, led by the Ayatollahs.

    I firmly believe that the Shah’s big mistake was that he didn’t come down on them hard enough – as in exterminate them.

    Ask any fireman as to the best time to put out a fire, aside from “before it starts”. The answer you will get is “while it is still very small – so small that you can put it out by pissing on it”.

    I would compare the current government of Iran to an Arsonist Club.

    And you don’t negotiate with arsonists.

    If the IAEA has to be led around by officials of the Iranian government, their report is of less value than toilet paper used by a person with diarrhea.

    We should be stationing a CBG in the Gulf, ostensibly “holding training exercises” with our good, kind-hearted, “liberal” “friends” the Saudis.

    And any of those little speedboats they use for a navy should be taken out with CIWS fire if they approach within a mile. You know… “Oooops, so very sorry, we thought that it was a target drone…”

  27. colnago80 says

    Re OldEd @ #30

    The problem with the Shah was that, unbeknownst to our intelligence agencies, he was a very sick man in the year or two before he was ousted, much like Mubarak in Egypt.

    As for the amount of fissile material, it depends on the percentage of U235. If the 90 lbs is 20% U235, that isn’t nearly enough to make a bomb without further refinement. Although the amount of 100% pure U235 needed for a critical mass for a bomb is classified, I have seen estimates of 2KG or so, based on the calculations performed back in 1940 by Leo Szilard and Otto Frisch (Werner Heisenberg estimated 100KG which would have taken Germany 30 years to produce; that was why the German nuclear bomb was put on the back burner). However, the amount of material required for a critical mass increases rapidly as the percentage of U235 goes down. I don’t know about PU, which I suspect is very highly classified.

  28. eric says

    By contrast, Iran is committing aggression via their support of the Assad Government in Syria and their support of the Hizbollah terrorists in Lebanon.

    So, when we deposed the elected government of Iran and installed the Shah, we should’ve been bombed back to the stone age for doing it? How about Iran-Contra? Are our allies appeasers because they didn’t bomb us over it? And how about current US support for Saudi Arabia – do you think the French and British should bomb the White House to stop it?

    Or do you only apply your standard to nations and causes you don’t like? Non-miltary response when Iran supports paramilitary NGOs = appeasement, but non-military response when the US supports paramilitary NGOs = goodness and justice.

    For the record, I don’t really believe the IAEA on this one, because both they and the CIA underestimated the timelines for India, Pakistan, and NK’s development of nukes. However having said that, I find your jingoism ludicrous. And from previous posts, you’ve shown you have absolutely no real comprehension of how nukes or the relevant technology works. At one point you claimed Iran would use a nuke to take out Israel, which is just laughable. AP High School physics students know better than that.

  29. sugarfrosted says

    @colnago80 Could you shut the fuck up with the “Hitler was actually a Jew with a fake name” bullshit. Kthx.

    The whole reason this exists is an attempt to fully pin the blame of the Holocaust on the Jews. Fuck you and the antisemitic horse you rode in on.

    קאָלנאַגאָ איז אַ נודניק, װאָס שטופּט דײַן מאַמע.

  30. dingojack says

    Modus (#27) – to catch the only other IKEA joke on the thread, you actually expect me to slog through SLC’s ‘Iran-triggered’ anaphylaxic chickenhawk/Chicken Little impersonations – at 6.45am (local)?!?
    I need a decent amount of sleep before handling that level of irrational idiocy.
    Dingo

  31. Quantum Mechanic says

    Oh, gawd. I knew the moment I saw “Iran” and “Nuclear” that colnago80 would threadjack with his usual nonsense. Seriously, SLC, you need to control these knee-jerk reactions of yours; that’s how you get messes like your earlier pushing genocide of an entire region with obsolete megaton-range nukes.

    And the Schickelbergerfrankengruberhitlersteinscheusal nonsense? We get it already. You’re such a clever little learned boy (nevermind for now that that’s bullshit, of course), but you’re really not impressing anyone with your little namedropping schtick. If you ever want anyone to take you seriously when either Jews or Hitler comes up, you’re going to need to cut out the 14-year-old-trying-to-appear-worldly act.

  32. Nick Gotts says

    Aaah! Colnago80 has a friend with exactly the same delusions and hatreds as him! Isn’t that sweet?*

    I’ll just take this opportunity that colnago80, who can’t even decide what name to use for Hitler**, has predicted that Iran will test a nuclear weapon before the end of this year. I’ve invited him to put his mouth where his mouth is, so to speak, and pledge a year of internet slience if this doesn’t happen (and I’ve promised the same if it does) – but he’s too much of a moral coward to do so.

    *No, it isn’t.

    **Whisper in colnago80’s ear: Adolf Hitler’s name was actually Adolf Hitler.

  33. laurentweppe says

    So basically world politics right now is based around appeasing the United States?

    Of course not! Appeasing Putin also plays a large role nowadays.

    ***

    I propose a poll. Who is more annoying: Bryan Fischer, Glenn Beck, or colnago80?

    SLC commenting a post about Glenn Beck talking to Bryan Fisher

  34. matty1 says

    SLC commenting a post about Glenn Beck talking to Bryan Fisher

    Wouldn’t that cause some kind of black hole of annoying?

    Also fun fact SLC stands for Strangelove’s Love Child

  35. caseloweraz says

    Artor: Oh, for an edit function! That should have been a “WTF.”

    ‘Sokay. I read it as “What the Deuce?”

  36. caseloweraz says

    Colnago80: No need to appease the USA with the wimpster, Barack Osama in power.

    You mean the man who authorized the raid that took out Osama bin Laden? You’d better check your spelling.

  37. caseloweraz says

    The well-documented fact that Iran put some of its enrichment facilities underground at secret locations argues against their declaration that they want the U-235 for peaceful power generation only. If the declaration were true, there would be no down-side in building their enrichment plants in the open and allowing inspections.

    By the same token, they might have accepted Russia’s offer of enriched uranium years ago.

    All that said, I do not support a military attack on Iran. If you read Ron Suskind’s The Way of the World, you will learn that in 2003 Iran was open to productive negotiations with the U.S. and the U.S. blew it. The current negotiations should be allowed to play out without interference by right-wingers in Congress.

  38. StevoR : Free West Papua, free Tibet, let the Chagossians return! says

    I’d like to see what Kaveh Mousavi over at On themargin of Errror’has to say about this report and issue. After all, he lives there we don’t.

    Sounds like good news if true. Hope it is.

    I hope Iran never gets The Bomb. Hope Iran is NEVER bombed and changes of its own.

    Time will tell, hope I’m right.

    @alanb : “I propose a poll. Who is more annoying: Bryan Fischer, Glenn Beck, or colnago80?”

    Don’t really find any of those annoying although all of them and most humans are wrong about a lot of stuff at times. (Shrug.) Maybe my annoyance threshold is low or something?

  39. StevoR : Free West Papua, free Tibet, let the Chagossians return! says

    Oops. Italics fail. Mea culpa.

    Hope Iran nevers bombs anyone else or starts any wars and hope no one starts any wars with Iran.

  40. parasiteboy says

    Sugarfrosted@35

    קאָלנאַגאָ איז אַ נודניק, װאָס שטופּט דײַן מאַמע

    “Kalnaga iz a snooze, vos Tuft Dane Mama”??? I think something must have been lost in the Google translation. So what does it really mean?

  41. colnago80 says

    Re sugarfrosted @ #35

    Just for the information of ole sugar, even if Frankenberger was his biological grandfather and, in fact had Jewish ancestry, ole Adolf and pere Alois were not halakhally Jewish as that is passed down via the female line. There is no evidence of Jewish ancestry in Maria Schickelgruber.

  42. colnago80 says

    By the way, after some research, I no longer think that the US has to use 15 Mt bombs to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities. I think that a combination of bunker busters and MOABs can do the job.

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