Dean Chambers is back in the saddle again, unskewing the polls. Well, he’s unskewing the polls he doesn’t like the result of while blindly accepting those he likes even if they have the same alleged flaws as the ones he’s unskewing. His latest target is that NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows the Republican party being heavily damaged by the government shutdown. And his “reasoning” is simply breathtaking.
The reality of the government shutdown is quite simple, and common sense validates it not to mention objectively conducted polling. The shutdown, which itself was spurred by opposition to funding and implementing Obamacare, which the pubic supports by solid majorities, has gone in a direction the left hadn’t expected, and it’s obvious that Democrats, most notably President Barack Obama, have vastly over-played their hand in this shutdown. The closing of national monuments, including kicking out our veterans who risked their lives to fight for our freedom, has embarrassed the president and shown how spiteful he is. In the real world, the voting public sees that, including low information voters, and that also explains in part, why Obama has dropped to 37 percent approval in the latest Associated Press Poll.
Now keep that AP poll in mind. Next he takes on that NBC/WSJ poll:
Most of the liberal media talking heads and spin-meisters told us the public would clearly blame Republicans for this shutdown if it happened, and then when it does, they create skewed polls to prove that.
One of the most skewed polls of last year, the NBC/WSJ poll in it’s latest edition is the most heavily cited by the liberal media to “prove” that the public blames Republicans for the government shutdown. First, they surveyed 800 adults, including 14 percent who admit they’re not registered to vote (how many others who are not registered to vote may not admit that and lie and say they are registered voters) and 240 cell phone only respondents. Given the availability of free cell phones and buy-by-the-minutes cell phones, anyone can get a cell phone including illegal aliens, children, and anyone else who is not registered to vote. That means as much as half of the sample they surveyed could be bogus.
So there are two arguments there that he thinks should convince his readers that the NBC/WSJ poll is inaccurate. The first is that 14% of the sample is not registered to vote. If you look at the crosstabs for the poll, you’ll see that 86% said they’re registered and 14% said they’re not. But in the AP poll that he just cited as evidence that the public blames Obama for the shutdown, 78% were registered to vote, 15% — higher than the NBC poll — were not and another 8% either said they didn’t know or refused to say. So by Chambers’ own “reasoning” the AP poll must be even more inaccurate.
The cell phone argument is even worse. Polls that don’t include cell phones are significantly less accurate than those that do because about 1/3 of Americans use a cell phone only and the number is going up every day. We can, as Nate Silver has, compare the results of polls that include cell phones and polls that don’t with the actual results at the polls and that comparison shows quite plainly that including cell phones makes a poll more accurate. And by the way, that NBC/WSJ poll was actually biased toward the Republicans during the 2012 election by 2.1%. The AP poll was biased toward Republicans by 4.6%.
Then he tries to find the silver lining in the cloud:
Yet despite all that skewing of the sample, the most valuable questions asked in the poll still indicate, to some degree, to which the public is not buying the unreality the liberal media trying to create about the government shutdown. A full 78 percent of those surveyed believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 14 to say it’s headed in the right direction.
Which has nothing to do with the question he thinks he’s trying to answer. Believing the country is on the wrong track does not equate to thinking it’s the president’s fault. At least some of those people are going to blame Republicans for it. In fact, the “right track” answer plunged more than half in just the last month, when all of this budget and debt ceiling controversy got started. But the poll contains specific questions about who the public blames, which Chambers ignores because they undercut his argument.
The very next question, for example, asks if they approve of the job President Obama is doing and it’s pretty much a dead heat, 47% saying yes and 48% saying no — and his approval rating has gone up in the last month. When asked to rate their feelings about various political figures, Obama gets 47% that either feel very positive or somewhat positive (with 11% neutral and 41% somewhat negative or very negative). The Republicans, on the other hand, gets a whopping 24% who are very positive or somewhat positive, with 53% somewhat negative or very negative. And there’s a specific question in the poll that asks who they think is to blame for the government shutdown. 53% blame the Republicans and 31% blame President Obama.
Isn’t it fascinating how Chambers cherry picks the evidence, focusing on one generic question that does not actually address the question of who the public is blaming for our current situation while completely ignoring the specific questions on that subject? One might even say that he’s skewing the results by leaving out all the data that conflicts with the story he’s trying to push.
The Democrats, by the way, get about an even split, with 39% having either a very positive or somewhat positive view of them and 40% having a very negative or somewhat negative view. The Republicans would love to have those numbers right now given that their negative ratings are more than double their positives. And when asked specifically about the Republicans in Congress, a staggering 70% disapprove and 24% approve, a nearly 3-1 ratio. Democrats are at 36% approval and 59% disapproval, not great but a hell of a lot better than the Republicans.
An incredibly obvious example of Chambers’ deliberate cherry picking:
Additionally, when asked their view of President Obama, if they believed “He is a being a strong leader and standing up for what he believes in” or “He is putting his own political agenda ahead of what’s good for the country” in the survey, 46 percent said “strong leader” while 51 percent said “his own political agenda.” Unskewed, that likely means at least 60 percent (or more) believe the obvious, that Barack Obama has put his own political agenda ahead of what’s good for the country.
And again, the very next question asks the same thing about the Republicans in Congress. 70% say the Republicans have put their own political agenda before the good of the country and only 27% say they are demonstrating strong leadership and standing up for what they believe in. Gee, I wonder why Chambers didn’t mention that? Actually, I don’t wonder. Chambers simply lacks the intellectual integrity to deal with the evidence honestly. Like most wingnuts, he believes that whatever he wants to be true must be true and he simply filters out all the data that doesn’t fit his preferred narrative.
Never believe anything about politics and society you hear or read from the mainstream media, because it’s unreality as the Government Class wants you to believe, so they might hope to manipulate your sense of the real world and see it as they do. Remember, as Evan Sayet pointed out about the liberal media, truth and accuracy is not necessarily the standard by which they report the “news.” The only standard is, for which they determine what to “report” is that which supports and bolsters their unreality according to “modern liberal” or the progressive political agenda. That which fits the agenda is reported, and what which does not is not. It’s that simple.
Mr. Fischer, call your office. We’ve got some weapons-grade projection going on.