Chambers Gets Back to ‘Unskewing’ Polls


I swear, Dean Chambers was put on earth just to entertain me. After admitting that his “unskewing” of the polls got the election results completely wrong, now he says he was right all along and that the polls are still skewed — and of course, he’s going to unskew them again.

Last year I conclusively demonstrated how many of the major polls were skewed in favor of the Democrats, and then I unskewed them to show just how skewed they were. It was clear, the major media were using the skewed polls to show President Obama leading by a great degree in the race for president against Mitt Romney than he really was. Remember, he won by about three percent in the real poll on election day, while most of those major polls showed him winning by margins of six or eight percent or more. Clearly those polls were skewed.

The real picture of the situation with the polls gets easily lost in the final result of the election and all of the left’s gloating that they got their guy reelected. Let’s be brutally honest, no one really expected the Obama campaign to re-create the coalition of voters and groups assembled in the enthusiasm of the campaign’s appeal to hope and change in 2008 and get as many voters to the polls in 2012. No one expected the electorate to really be plus five percent in favor of Democrats as the exit polls showed. Even the skewed polls showed comparative enthusiasm levels among voters in both party’s bases that would clearly indicate an election-day electorate that would include more Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Now let’s flash back to a couple days after the election last year, when his predictions turned out to be completely wrong and Nate Silver’s analysis of the polls turned out to be spot on.

“Nate Silver was right, and I was wrong,” Chambers said in a phone interview.

Chambers’ method of “unskewing” polls involved re-weighting the sample to match what he believed the electorate would look like, in terms of party identification. He thought the electorate would lean more Republican when mainstream pollsters routinely found samples that leaned Democratic.

But as it turned out, the pollsters were right — self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6% in election exit polls.

“I think it was much more in the Democratic direction than most people predicted,” Chambers said. “But those assumptions — my assumptions — were wrong.”…

But he said he probably won’t go back to “unskewing” polls next time. He actually thinks conservative-leaning pollsters like Scott Rasmussen have a lot more explaining to do.

“He has lost a lot of credibility, as far as I’m concerned,” Chambers said. “He did a lot of surveys. A lot of those surveys were wrong.”

Being a wingnut means never admitting you’re wrong. And if you do, you just wait a while and pretend it never happened and that you were right all along.

Comments

  1. MikeMa says

    So that means 74% love the GOP sponsored shutdown/default?

    Chambers is clearly nonessential and therefore needs to re-ignite his gullible contributors so he can continue to buy beer.

  2. says

    He’s right. When the polls were unskewed, there was “an election-day electorate that would include more Republican voters than Democratic voters”. Unfortunately there weren’t enough unskewed polling places for these unskewed Republican voters to vote at.
    The imaginary Repubican Voter block must not be discounted, as it will become more and more important as real Republican candidates get farther and farther away from reality.

    In short, Romney would have won if more people had voted for him. And shame on you for denying this simple fact.

  3. Chiroptera says

    Man, was Silver ever right. I think they should have his picture on the Wikipedia entry for “correct.”

  4. dogmeat says

    Remember, he won by about three percent in the real poll on election day, while most of those major polls showed him winning by margins of six or eight percent or more.

    What a total crock of horse shit. RCP doesn’t have a single poll in the last month prior to the election that has him winning by 6-8 points let alone “most of those major polls.” This is utter bull. Even if you go back into September, the vast majority of the polls portrayed a race that was going to be about a 2-4 point race. A few outliers predicted a Romney win and a few predicted a larger Obama win.

    This guy is just as idiotic as those who defend the nuts in the Republican party by pointing to some nobody on the left who makes an idiotic argument and then tries to claim parity. “I was wrong, but they were equally wrong, so I was less wrong and was actually right.” No, doofus, you were wrong. You didn’t do the math correctly because your warped, frustrated mind wouldn’t let you believe that your chosen candidate wasn’t going to win.

  5. pocketnerd says

    Chambers is actually fairly sane compared to the teabagger base. I routinely encounter people who insist that Romney actually won the election, but [ pick one or more: voter fraud / the Electoral College / millions of Muslims smuggled into the United States by Barack HUSSEIN Obama ] stole it away from him.

  6. DaveL says

    I assume he’s back to “unskewing” polls so as to explain away the inconvenient fact that Americans are blaming the GOP and their Tea Party faction for the shutdown and imminent debt ceiling deadline?

  7. Pierce R. Butler says

    Chambers: … [Obama] won by about three percent …

    Most second-graders can subtract 47(%) from 53L(%) with much greater accuracy than that.

    Chambers’s remedial arithmetic lessons* should probably start at an even earlier level.

    *Maybe “re-education camps” are what some parts of the country really need…

  8. caseloweraz says

    All the polls, says Chambers, are skewed.
    Man, he is one clueless dude!
    To make up some numbers
    And call others bumblers
    Just means that he’s royally screwed.

  9. Gvlgeologist, FCD says

    I swear, Dean Chambers was put on earth just to entertain me.
    Wrong, Ed. You’re being very self centered. He was put on Earth to entertain all of us.

    Or he’s a deep cover Dem who’s lulling the Repubs into a false sense of security. Or something.

    I sometimes wonder whether ALL of the TPers and other crazier Repubs are false flag operations. It’s the only explanation.

  10. says

    So, I’m guessing this guy misses the tiny bit of fame and, I suppose, money that he made last October, and is trying to find a way to get on the gravy train again, despite having been humiliated in the worst possible way.

    The big question: Are conservatives really so stupid that they will fall for it again, or is this just desperate posturing from someone who is behind on his mortgage payments?

  11. Gvlgeologist, FCD says

    The big question: Are conservatives really so stupid that they will fall for it again, or is this just desperate posturing from someone who is behind on his mortgage payments?

    The two are not mutually exclusive. Never underestimate the ability of people to believe what supports what they want to believe.

  12. says

    By the way, that post is dated Feb. 6 of this year. So he apparently got back into the game several months ago.

    If you want something more recent, try this:

    For those among the liberal media and the activists on the far left who said I was wrong about my prediction of the presidential election last year, I was right on 46 states and wrong on just FOUR states. And it’s been since established those four states were definitely won by Obama on the margin of voter fraud.

    So of the 5 or maybe 6 legitimate swing states, Chambers was wrong about only 4 of them, and besides it’s all voter fraud anyway.

    And this one if possible is even better:

    Let me make this very clear for the far left, that lives in their own self-created unreality, that screams conspiracy and says we wear tinfoil hats every time we tell the truth about what happened in the 2012 election: We did not lose the 2012 election, the far left and the Obama Regime and campaign stole the election through massive cheating. We won the election fair and square, and they stole it.

    You can’t make this stuff up.

  13. says

    “[Obama] won by about three percent in the real poll on election day, while most of those major polls showed him winning by margins of six or eight percent or more.” –Dean Chambers (2/6/13)

    “There are nine polls in that final RCP average, and seven of them show the race essentially tied, because they show it within the margin of error for those polls. The other two show the race within three percent, just barely above the margin of error. The average shows Obama leading by 0.7 percent.” –Dean Chambers (10/14/13)

  14. Mr Ed says

    I think Chambers should wear a turban like Carson’s Carnac. He could hold an envelope up to his head and predict historic events.

    Chambers: 1916, Hong Kong and Pork

    opens envelope

    Year of the war of 1812, capital of France and Texas state song

Leave a Reply