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Chambers Still ‘Unskewing’ Polls

If you’d spent months ranting and raving about how inaccurate the polls were in last year’s presidential election and declaring that Romney was going to win in a landslide after you’d “unskewed” the polls, only to be proven definitively wrong and look like an ass, you’d think you’d just shut the hell up about the polls. Not Dean Chambers. Now he’s being a poll truther on Obama’s approval rating.

Today’s Real Clear Politics average of polls on the president’s approval rating shows an approval rating of 52.1 percent to a disapproval rating of 42.9 percent. That translates to an approval margin of 9.2 percent. The average is based on ten recent polls, most of then commissioned or conducted by major news outlets. As with many of the polls last Fall before the election, the polls are skewed by over-sampling Democratic voters.

Gosh, it seems like you tried to make this exact same argument last year and ended up with enough egg on your face to make an omelette the size of Toledo. And if you take the five polls he claims are not skewed, even by his standards, you get an average margin of 8.4% — and that includes the Fox News poll that shows an even 39-39 split, which is wildly out of whack with every other poll that he calls unskewed; the other four show margins of 12, 12, 11 and 7 points. And even all the polls he claims to have “unskewed.” In fact, the average of the polls that he “unskews” is still 6.5%, so the Fox News poll is obviously an outlier that does not fit with 10 other polls. If you take out the Fox News poll, you find an average margin of 8.3 points, or almost exactly what the polls he admits are reasonable found.

So his “unskewing” drops the president’s average approval ratings by less than one percent. Sure glad he emerged from under that rock to do the hard math, aren’t you?

Comments

  1. Rodney Nelson says

    So the unskewed polls are like the skewed polls within a reasonable margin of error. Good job, Chambers.

  2. MikeMa says

    Chambers learned that providing poll results many would like to be true regardless of the reality, will earn him money. Plain and simple greed and con man tactics.

  3. shallit says

    I think Chambers is right. After all, those who agree with him are probably too stupid to figure out where the phone is and answer it, so they are under-represented.

  4. marcus says

    “Gosh, it seems like you tried to make this exact same argument last year and ended up with enough egg on your face to make an omelette the size of Toledo.”

    That where you’re wrong!!11!!
    What you people haven’t realized is that Chambers polling was absolutely correct and that Romney actually won the election. Obama was just another victory for the “Librul Noise Machine” and the LMSM (and that gay guy, what-his-name).

  5. ShowMetheData says

    The state republicans are also ‘un-skewing the polls”
    It’s call gerry-mandering, vote denial, and disenfranchisement

  6. Doug Little says

    WTF this guy must really enjoy humble pie. I thought he said that he was done with the whole unskewed polls thing, but there you go, he must be a victim of the conservative memory hole and is back for more. Of course there is no definitive way he can be proved wrong with approval ratings so he’s cooking the books for the benefit of the conservative echo chamber, and most probably his bottom line. “Tell ‘em what they want to hear and they will send money” should be the mantra of the conservative media these days. Of course they aren’t doing themselves any favors living in Wingnuttia instead of the real world, but they are doing the Dems one mighty favor.

  7. says

    But this is different. There’s no election to sort out the wheat from the chaff, polls-wise. So it’s win-win for him.
    Learn your lesson, Liberals! If the test at the end shows your system to be faulty, stop testing!

  8. says

    “That where you’re wrong!!11!!
    What you people haven’t realized is that Chambers polling was absolutely correct and that Romney actually won the election. Obama was just another victory for the “Librul Noise Machine” and the LMSM (and that gay guy, what-his-name).”

    I thought it was ACORN.

  9. marcus says

    d.c.wilson @13 That was the first time, when McCain would have defeated Obama if not for those pesky ACORN kids.

  10. josephmccauley says

    I was hoping my former student would let it go. I taught him some math, but apparently not enough.

  11. eric says

    There wil always be a place for people like Chambers. After the last election, I’d bet that the behind-closed-doors GOP position is: use Silver and the mainstream polls for actual strategizing and decision-making, but the Chambers polls for PR.

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