Quantcast

«

»

Nov 06 2012

My Final Election Prediction

Yesterday I gave you everyone else’s predictions. Now here are my own. Most of the states are a lock, of course, and these are the ones that matter: Romney wins Florida and North Carolina. Obama wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan (for some reason, the Republicans think they can win those last three; they can’t). Virginia really is a total tossup, with the average of the last few polls being within .3% of each other. But by my count, that gets Obama to 290 electoral votes even without Virginia. If he wins it, he’ll be at 303; if Romney wins it, Obama still wins. Here’s my map:

I think the Democrats hold on to the Senate with 51 or 52, maybe 53. I think the Republicans retain control of the House, probably by something in the range of 12-15 votes.

48 comments

Skip to comment form

  1. 1
    theschwa

    God FSM, I hope you are right.

  2. 2
    MyPetSlug

    Come on, let loose your inner Dick Morris and go out and limb on something. I mean, you’ve made some very reasonable predictions, nothing out of the ordinary, but you have to give at least one bold one. How about, predicting a recount in Virginia then? Or that Brian Fischer will demand that Romney refuse to concede the election. How about predicting that Ryan will throw Romney under the bus after the election and we’ll here about the Sarah Palinesque in-fighting that went on behind the scenes?

    To help you get in the spirit, I predict Glenn Beck will openly weep on TV after the loss. Hmm, maybe that’s not bold either.

  3. 3
    Doug Little

    I predict that we are going to have another ammo shortage after Obama wins the election again.

  4. 4
    shripathikamath

    Obama 303
    Romney 235

    Popular vote Obama 50.5% Romney 48.5%

    Dems + Independents Senate 53
    Rep 47

    Rep House 238
    Dems House 197

  5. 5
    dingojack

    MyPetSlug – OK then. My prediction: after the election the Prez will open all them FEMA concentration camps* and imprison Bek, Limbaugh and Dick Morris.
    :) Dingo
    —–
    * Like they’ve got so little to do already

  6. 6
    cry4turtles

    I predict the GOP will blame Chris Christie for losing and he (Christie) will leave the party.

  7. 7
    dingojack

    I predict that after the election the Cuban/Soviet/Chinese armies will invade the continental US, but Wolverines will save the day!1!!
    Dingo

  8. 8
    Area Man

    I think VA goes Obama, while FL is simply too close to call. CO may surprise and go Romney.

    But in terms of EVs, this isn’t going to be close. OH, IA, and NV are in the bag for Obama, and that’s all he needs.

  9. 9
    Michael Heath

    Ed,

    In the past you’ve also broadcast your vote and the rationale for your vote. I don’t recall seeing anything from you this season. Care to dish? I’m particularly curious at to which presidential candiate you’ll vote for, if any, along with the six state proposals.

    I live in a very sparsely populated township and have for the past eight years. I’ve never waited in line to vote. Today it took about 1.5 hours for me and my wife to vote. This seemed to be driven by both a large turn-out and a enormous number of items on the ballot. The latter factor made it take far longer for most people to vote. Even straight-ticket voters took longer since we had a number of proposals and non-partisan judicial seats up for grabs.

  10. 10
    Trebuchet

    I’m eagerly looking forward to the Mormon blaming and cries of “ACORN!” tomorrow.

  11. 11
    M can help you with that.

    I hope you’re right.

    Unfortunately, only the right-wing election predictions seem to take into account voter suppression and the Diebold effect. It’s quite possible that you have accurately predicted what people who think they voted think their votes counted for; the (unauditable, unchallengable, effectively unrecountable) official numbers may be different.

  12. 12
    Alverant

    I predict a lot of election fraud, lots of people upset no matter who wins, and the other side insisting the winner won ilegally.

    But I do hope Obama, for all his faults, is re-elected.

  13. 13
    shripathikamath

    While you predict, keep an eye on the pundits and their predictions.

  14. 14
    Reginald Selkirk

    I’m calling Ohio for Jon Husted

  15. 15
    dingojack

    Ater the election there will be a mysterious meteor shower which will rend everyone blind, then the fiendish Triffids will come into their own….
    Bwhahahahahahahahaha!!!
    Dingo

  16. 16
    eric

    Michael @9 – Ed seems to be going with the average results of the major polls. For example, with the exception of VA his predictions are fully consistent with politico’s. There may be other sites with similar information and slightly different numbers, but the point is that he’s going with what is probably the statistically most likely scenario.

    Personally I like this graphic. It is NOT an analysis of the odds, but then again, I don’t need yet another pundit telling me the odds. this provides a different take on the same information.

  17. 17
    Reginald Selkirk

    And the results are pouring in:
    Dixville Notch, New Hampshire
    Obama 5, Romney 5

  18. 18
    jnorris

    On Wednesday morning Mitch McConnell will pledge all Republicans to limiting Pres Obama to two terms.

  19. 19
    Nick Gotts

    eric@16,

    Yes, nice graphic. I must admit the thought of an EC tie, with the House of Reps making Romney President, and the Senate making Biden Vice-President, has some amusement value.

  20. 20
    Reginald Selkirk

    sign modification

  21. 21
    stubby

    I’m curious to see how accurate Nate Silver is.

  22. 22
    Captain Mike

    @Nick Gotts: That would be pretty funny, but I’m holding out hope for the Johnson/Honkala administration.

  23. 23
    Ichthyic

    I predict that we are going to have another ammo shortage after Obama wins the election again.

    I’m hoping this isn’t a personal problem for you, Doug?

  24. 24
    Ichthyic

    I predict the GOP will blame Chris Christie for losing and he (Christie) will leave the party.

    I’ll side with you on that, simply because there are so many ways this could happen.

    some GoPs will of course blame Christie, hell they already are, so that’s one.

    the only real issue is whether Christie will always run as GoP for his future candidacy, and I think you have a good bet he will run as an independent.

    so, on the whole, this is a reasonable bet!

  25. 25
    Ichthyic

    the freepers seem to think so too:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2751311/posts

  26. 26
    Ichthyic

    …and that was a year ago!

  27. 27
    scienceavenger

    I wonder how Sheldon Adelson, the Koch brothers, and the goofy Montana billionaire who sues you if you name him, will react to pouring so many millions down the Romney drain.

    Also consider this: all indications are the GOP reaction to a loss will be to scream “RINO!” and look to nominate someone in 2016 that is more crazy conservative than this time around. That means a crew even more nuts entertaining than Perry/Bachman/Cain/Frothy were. The mind boggles.

  28. 28
    Doug Little

    Ha Ha, Has anybody heard from out friend Pat and what his prediction is. Should be good for a laugh.

  29. 29
    Die Anyway

    I’m in the St. Pete, FL area. A local bakery has been selling Obama and Romney cookies. As of last night they had sold more Obama cookies. Maybe Florida can go for O afterall. In any case, predictions will very soon be obsolete. Bring on the real count.

  30. 30
    rbh3

    How about, predicting a recount in Virginia then?

    Ohio could be a long-delayed reporter of results and a good candidate for a recount, given the possibility that the immediate post-election vote margin for one or the other candidate margin may easily be considerably less than the number of provisional votes cast. If that’s the case, Ohio’s official results could be delayed until mid-December.

  31. 31
    Reginald Selkirk

    Die Anyway #29: I’m in the St. Pete, FL area. A local bakery has been selling Obama and Romney cookies.

    Cookies? Surely the (Michelle) Obama option was carrot sticks.

  32. 32
    Dr X

    O303 R235 is the most frequent outcome of the final Wang-Princeton Consortium forecast.

  33. 33
    Ichthyic

    will react to pouring so many millions down the Romney drain.

    considering how close the polls are right now?

    they will be ecstatic, win or no, and will pour even MORE money in during the next election.

    surely you realize this?

  34. 34
    eric

    @27:

    Also consider this: all indications are the GOP reaction to a loss will be to scream “RINO!” and look to nominate someone in 2016 that is more crazy conservative than this time around.

    I think you have it slightly wrong; they will scream RINO until midway through the primary, when many of the party faithful will balk when it becomes obvious that the 20% of the population that’s undecided will never vote for a Perry or Santorum. Then they’ll go with the moderate.

    After all, that was the 2008 to 2012 pattern: they screamed RINO after the McCain loss and then decided to go with…Romney. I predict the same pattern between 2012 and 2016 (assuming Obama wins; if Romney wins its moot).

  35. 35
    NitricAcid

    Die Anyway: That’s probably only because the Obama cookies are chocolate.

  36. 36
    magistramarla

    My daughter waited in line for three hours to vote in Virginia this morning. It’s going to take a long time to get all of those votes counted. I hope this means that the Democrats were successful with the GOTV efforts.

  37. 37
    Barefoot Bree

    That colored map always throws me, and gives me the heebie-jeebies. How can Obama win with all that red everywhere?

    (Yes, I know all about electoral college numbers. You don’t have to explain it. I’m just giving my gut reaction here.)

  38. 38
    Ichthyic

    MMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……. yummy!

    I imagine you would have done the same thing when Al Gore got defeated by Bush Lite?

    so… to you the hundreds of thousands of people that died as a direct result of the election of George W Bush are meaningless in comparison with your tremendously important opportunity to gloat.

    got it.

    you’re a sad, pathetic, waste of life.

  39. 39
    dingojack

    So what’s your prediction Mr Bongo?
    Curiously
    Dingo

  40. 40
    cry4turtles

    I once saw a whiteguiltneck while snipe hunting.

  41. 41
    cry4turtles

    nik

  42. 42
    dingojack

    what is a whiteguil? ;)
    Dingo

  43. 43
    Dr X

    It appears that God has has lifted his hand of protection.

  44. 44
    Dr X

    Peggy Noonan ‏@Peggynoonannyc:

    I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

    Never mind.

  45. 45
    tuxedocartman

    @ #47 Dr. X: Yes, but is he waving said hand in the air as if though he just does not care?

  46. 46
    Ichthyic

    no, i actually voted for Gore and Obama the first time. I just learned to really hate the whiteguiltnik stinky hippy left from hanging around you crazies on this comments board.

    you’re a sad, pathetic, liar.

    and now you’re a loser too.

    how’s that feel, fuckwit?

  47. 47
    scienceavenger

    “hippy left”? Jesus, how old are you? Were you with Romney when he was enjoying the Keystone Cops and Laurel and Hardy?

  48. 48
    Nick Gotts

    I’m only here to gloat if Repubs win.

    God, that would be the sweetests based on the howls of pain and whining in here.

    MMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……. yummy! – Mr. Bongo

    I can hear your howls of pain and whining from across the Atlantic, you lying racist scumbag.

    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Leave a Reply

Switch to our mobile site