After weeks of claiming that all the polls were wrong and that Romney was really leading the election by landslide margins, Dennis Chambers of Unskewed Polls has backed way off in his final predictions. A week ago he was predicting Romney would get over 300 electoral votes and win nearly all the swing states. Now he says it will be 275 for Romney, banking on Ohio to put him over the top.
So what did he change? A week ago he had Romney winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. Now he has those going to Obama, with Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Ohio going to Romney. And he seems to think that nearly every race that is within the margin of error will go to Romney, based on such compelling arguments as “he’s connecting with the people there.”
Colorado is in a category by itself. The RCP average shows Obama leading 48.8 percent to Romney at 47.3 percent. Mitt Romney has campaigned extensively in this race recently, has had some great rallies and connected well with the voters. The last Rasmussen survey of the state, based on a very balanced and fair sample, shows Romney winning the state 50 percent to 47 percent. Other than a skewed Public Policy Polling survey, the rest of the polls show Romney tied or leading or trailing by a margin that is within the margin of error. The vote will be within one or two percent with Romney winning Colorado. That puts the count at Obama 263 to Romney 257 with only Ohio left to decide the election.
The race is Ohio is like the national race, it is a story of many believing skewed polls that show President Obama performing stronger than he really is while Romney is likely to surprise them in winning it. Many of the polls for Ohio are skewed and so too is the RCP average because of that. The most recent poll for Ohio is the Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati survey that shows Obama leading 50 percent to 49 percent with a 3.3 percent margin of error. The latest Rasmussen poll of Ohio has the race in the state tied at 49 percent.
Looks like he’s hedging his bets and cutting way back on his absurd predictions so he doesn’t look quite so bad.