Quantcast

«

»

Oct 19 2012

Romney’s Not-So-Bold Economic Predictions

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have told everyone who asked, and many who didn’t, that their economic plan will create 12 million jobs if they are elected. Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post notes that there are multiple economic models that predict almost exactly that increase in jobs over the next four years no matter who is in office.

As we have noted before, the 12 million figure is not a bad bet by Romney. Moody’s Analytics, in an August forecast, predicts 12 million jobs will be created by 2016, no matter who is president. And Macroeconomic Advisors in April also predicted a gain of 12.3 million jobs.

He also points out that many of the studies his campaign cites as evidence for their prediction don’t really say that at all:

We asked the Romney campaign, and the answer turns out to be: totally different studies … with completely different timelines.

For instance, the claim that 7 million jobs would be created from Romney’s tax plan is a 10-year number, derived from a study written by John W. Diamond, a professor at Rice University.

This study at least assesses the claimed effect of specific Romney policies. The rest of the numbers are even more squishy.

For instance, the 3-million-jobs claim for Romney’s energy policies appears largely based on aCitigroup Global Markets study that did not even evaluate Romney’s policies. Instead, the report predicted 2.7 million to 3.6 million jobs would be created over the next eight years, largely because of trends and policies already adopted — including tougher fuel efficiency standards that Romneyhas criticized and suggested he would reverse.

The 2-million-jobs claim from cracking down on China is also very suspicious.

This figure comes from a 2011 International Trade Commission report, which estimated that there could be a gain of 2.1 million jobs if China stopped infringing on U.S. intellectual property rights. The estimate is highly conditional and pegged to the job market in 2011, when there was high unemployment. “It is unclear when China might implement  the improvement in IPR protection envisioned in the analysis, and equally unclear whether the United States will face as much excess labor supply then as it does today,” the report says.

The Romney campaign has already used this study, in a misleading way, to claim that Obama’s China “policies cost us 2 million jobs.” Now the campaign has just taken the same figure and credited the claimed job gain to itself, even though the report does not examine any of Romney’s proposed policies.

If you’re surprised by any of this, you haven’t been paying attention.

7 comments

Skip to comment form

  1. 1
    StevoR : Free West Papua, free Tibet, let the Chagossians return!

    Heard this mentioned on Planet America (Aussie TV news show on US politics) earlier this arvo.

    Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have told everyone who asked, and many who didn’t, that their economic plan will create 12 million jobs if they are elected.

    Did he say which nation he’d create them in?

    (Too easy I know.)

  2. 2
    F [i'm not here, i'm gone]

    No, that is so very extremely unsurprising, it wasn’t even on my radar.

  3. 3
    Didaktylos

    There you have it – it’s perfectly safe to vote for R-money: things won’t be any worse with him …

  4. 4
    left0ver1under

    Not to go off topic, but are there any accurate political polls anymore within the US?

    Every media that is pro-Obama claims he’s running away with it. Every right-leaning media claims Romney has “surged ahead”. It makes me wonder if there are any telling the truth.

    I guess the old political joke has become the truth: “We have elections to see if the polls were right.”

  5. 5
    tubi

    Mitt Romney, about 9:05 Tuesday night*: “I’ll create 12 million new jobs!”

    Mitt Romney, about 10:45 Tuesday night**: “Government can’t create jobs! Government can’t create jobs!”

    He can’t even keep his lines consistent over a two hour period.

    *And multiple times both before and after.
    **And multiple times both before and after.

  6. 6
    Michael Heath

    Most people were astonished with how much Sarah Palin lied in the 2008 election. While the media didn’t do an adequate job noting this, particularly prior to the Nov.-08 election, they did report it adequately enough even medium-information voters probably knew.

    We’re used to Republicans lying but she took the volume and dependency on falsehoods to a level I’d never previously encountered. Besides her character failings it was obvious she was in way over her head coupled to not being used to her bullshit being scrutinized when she hit the national stage. This created a perfect storm of bullshit.

    Now Mr. Romney is clearly smarter, better educated, and more informed than Ms. Palin (though not sufficiently informed to my standards). And yet here we see him lying to degree that blows past my observations of Ms. Palin dependency on lies. In fact her debate with then-Sen. Biden in 2008 had her setting the record of lies counted by me when I counted such watching debates. That was 41 lies. With Mr. Romney I counted 61 lies in the first debate with the president. (I didn’t count the second, just watched).

    And while the media points out some of Mr. Romney and the president’s lies, only Andrew Sullivan seems to be reporting the staggering volume and almost complete dependence on lies by the Romney campaign. For high-information voters Republican denialism and dishonesty should be another elephant in the room, coupled to the other extant elephants not being debated this electoral season. Those would be the avoidance of climate change and its implication now and in the future, the societal and economic implications of the Drug War, the economic impact of the performance of our healthcare market, Republican policies we know will cause great harm to the country’s interests, and our mediocre educational outcomes. All issues which have a generational and structural impact on Americans and the world, a major impact in some cases to all of humanity, and yet these issues are effectively avoided this season.

  7. 7
    J Myers (no relation)

    As we have noted before, the 12 million figure is not a bad bet by Romney. Moody’s Analytics, in an August forecast, predicts 12 million jobs will be created by 2016, no matter who is president.

    Well, in that case, I’d say it’s a terrible bet; this means that if Romney is elected, he only gets to claim credit for any jobs created beyond the 12 million-new-jobs baseline that is presently projected. I believe fulfilling this promise (i.e., presiding over an economy that adds a total of 24 million jobs the next 4 years) would put us somewhere near full employment. Is this what he’s claiming he will accomplish?

Leave a Reply

Switch to our mobile site