As the acceptance of poll denialism spreads through conservative circles like herpes, this may be the best article in that genre yet. I have no idea who William Gensert is, but he writes at the badly misnamed site The American Thinker that the election is over — and Romney is going to win in a landslide. Seriously.
If anything, the closer we get to Election Day, the more apparent it is that Obama is not only losing, but losing big. The Obama campaign, and by “campaign” I mean members of the media and polling organizations, is trying to convince prospective Romney voters to believe that all is lost — in which case, they hope, we will stay home.
But just because they say so, that doesn’t make it true…
Obama is going to lose in a landslide. And Barack Obama, the media, and the polling organizations will be appropriately shocked.
Shocked, I say!
Would you care to bet on that, Mr. Genser?
42 comments
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dingojack
October 2, 2012 at 2:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I suggest you start at odds of about 3-1 that there’ll be a Romneyslide. Surely he couldn’t say no.
:) Dingo
sparky_ca
October 2, 2012 at 2:58 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
The more they make these wild predictions, the more concerned about real voting fraud and electronic voting shenanigans I become.
~Sparky
nigelTheBold, Venomous Demonic Hater
October 2, 2012 at 3:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
You scoff, you scoffers, but it is the truth. The greater Obama’s lead in the polls, the bigger Romney’s landslide will become. Oh, you may think that makes no sense, but really, the positive press Obama gets (especially on Fox News!) only serves to increase the voter power of Romney’s brilliant campaign strategy of, “I know you are, but what am I?”
Just wait for next week’s campaign reboot of, “I’m rubber and you’re glue!” Then, my friends, even the Obama-lovin’ pollsters (especially those at Fox News!) will no longer be able to deny Romney’s inevitable landslide victory.
scottshan
October 2, 2012 at 3:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Unless they have zero risk capital available people like this are proving themselves to be charlatans unless they have a short position on Intrade.
slc1
October 2, 2012 at 3:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Most of the folks contributing articles to that web site don’t appear to be household names. However, I did notice an article on global warming by UVA’s own, Fred Singer, a world class denialist. In addition to denying global warming, he also denies that CFCs cause ozone depletion and that cigarettes cause lung cancer.
Aratina Cage
October 2, 2012 at 3:25 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It’s all up to Biden now to stop R&R in their tracks like he did Ma Grizzly and her henchman, Lizardman. Go Joe!
fastlane
October 2, 2012 at 3:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think it’s mostly a matter of reverse psychology…on their own base. Convince them that the polls are wrong, and they can prove them wrong if they really turn out the vote for RMoney. It’s a clear example of propaganda and the big lie.
That, or they really are all that delusional and believe their own bullshit. I’d like to think they are only lying to their followers, and not to themselves.
scienceavenger
October 2, 2012 at 3:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It only makes sense, since GOPers believe in economic homeopathy (the lower tax rates, the greater revenue), that they’d eventually come around to political homeopathy: the greater Romney’s deficit in the polls, the more likely he’ll win.
regexp
October 2, 2012 at 3:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
His argument only works if all voting Americans are as superficial and idiotic as he is.
Jeremy Shaffer
October 2, 2012 at 3:39 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
fastlane at 7-
Yeah but you only say that because you’re part of the reality- based community. You’ll just never understand that it’s true because they believe it’s true thus making it true so they can believe it to be true.
M, Supreme Anarch of the Queer Illuminati
October 2, 2012 at 3:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Opinion polls may have some limitations which would tend to slant them towards Obama; as far as I’m aware, they’re based on people who intend to vote, not which votes are likely to be counted. Unless they include corrections for voter-suppression efforts and Diebolding, the polls are unlikely to match the official vote counts.
oranje
October 2, 2012 at 3:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I get the impression more and more everyday that these people, with the echo chamber they’ve setup, cannot fathom how anyone wouldn’t vote for Romney over Obama. Enough people in their discourse community say Obama is ending America and they all nod their heads in belief. I really think they believe this stuff.
typecaster
October 2, 2012 at 4:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
This is known as the anthrowback principle, isn’t it?
Rodney Nelson
October 2, 2012 at 4:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
There’s about 40% of Americans who think Romney should be President. If all of them show up at the polls, then Romney will win.
Trebuchet
October 2, 2012 at 4:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
The more they convince people that the polls are wrong today, the easier it will be to convince them that the election was rigged (ACORN!!!!) after the election.
scienceavenger
October 2, 2012 at 4:21 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@7, 10 and 12, yes, they do believe it, because they are getting high on their own supply.
eric
October 2, 2012 at 4:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think that’s the plan, actually. Convince marginally or wavering conservative voters that there is only one rational and popular choice.
People will often change their vote when they perceive one side’s victory is inevitable. Its irrational (especially in a secret ballot process!), but hey, people aren’t fully rational agents. The “you don’t want to be the person who votes for the loser, do you?” argument may be fallacious, but its also rhetorically effective.
The GOP is probably scared that people are going to start thinking that way about Romney if the poll numbers get too lop-sided (for Obama). So they are challening the data. Of coures to do that, they basically have to concoct a huge conspiracy theory.
I say, sit back and enjoy it. This is almost as funny as Baghdad Bob.
nigelTheBold, Venomous Demonic Hater
October 2, 2012 at 4:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
“We’ve got you now, Mr. Biden!” Mitt chortled. “Or should I call you, Secret Agent Joe?”
Joe clenched his teeth. He knew this day would come. Death stalked him at every turn. His own brazen courage in the face of danger was like an eternal slap in the face to the Grim Reaper. He knew this day would come. But he’d hoped it might not be for another fifty years or so.
“So, you’ve found me skulking about your secret volcanic lair here at Mount Obama, in Hawaii, have you?” Joe said. “You can’t stop me now. I know too much.”
Ryan laughed. “I think not, my gaff-prone nemesis.” Ryan stalked around his captive, a lion languidly surveying desert. “For instance, you don’t know how we plan to win in a landslide!”
Joe barked a laugh, fierce and unexpected. “Really?” he asked. “And how do you plan on doing that?”
“Easily,” Ryan assured him. “We will focus our destructo-rays, which are currently at rest position and pointed at our very own lair, at our desired targets.” He waved casually at the giant, candy-like red button that had so intrigued Joe earlier.
Ryan continued, “This will cause landslides on both the east and west coasts, sinking California into the ocean, and drowning the liberal Eastern Seaboard in mud and refuse!”
Romney gripped Joe’s face in the mitten-like vice of his right hand, forcing Joe’s lips to form an involuntary duck-face. “And then, little Joe,” he said, “only red states will be left to vote. We will literally win in a landslide. Muah-ha-ha-ha!”
“Ah!” cried Joe, breaking free from their fiendish grasp. “We’ll see about that!” He leapt over the fusion generator, its lights flashing in inscrutable digital messages. He vaulted into the control area, and slammed the shiny button with a solid fist. He then dove into the sloping slide-like opening behind. If he knew anything about secret evil lairs, he knew that this would lead to the getaway pod.
And of course, he was correct.
dean
October 2, 2012 at 5:47 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, if “(President) Obama will lose in a landslide” is interpreted to mean
“If that n******r wins again, the amount of name-calling and obstruction the right practiced after 2008′s election like a pebble”
then he’s probably correct.
Ichthyic
October 2, 2012 at 5:54 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
projection is an amazing psychological defense mechanism, ain’t it?
Aratina Cage
October 2, 2012 at 6:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
LOL! Such an ingenious plan–and it strangely mirrors the reality of what we are witnessing.
(And of course, I was being silly about Joe Biden debating Paul Ryan having any effect on the outcome of this election, but it seems to fit the level of detachment from reality necessary to think that Romney will win in a landslide at this time.)
Aratina Cage
October 2, 2012 at 7:21 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
So there is this new “race” video clip that Drudge is touting as a game changer. Other than then Senator Obama filling the role of key preacher, it is a really excellent hopey-changey (that’s Teabagger speak for “moving”) speech about how innocent humans can and will prevail in face of adversity and how we should all come together to heal the USA in numerous areas (our justice system, healthcare, housing, and civil rights in particular). Instead of working people up like it was intended, it is getting this kind of reaction on YouTube:
Bwahahaha! And it is not just that. It’s also that they have to go back to before he was president to find anything they think is worth talking about at all. What, are we going to have to sit through hours and hours of non-stop “Just words?” and “US of KKKA!” again from conservative radio stations? They’ve really lost it.
Ben P
October 2, 2012 at 7:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think I might be the reverse.
Romney is polling somewhere between +16 and +21 in my state. If the election were close, I’d vote for Obama hands down. But if on election day Romney is still polling at +20, I may well log a protest vote for Gary Johnson.
Michael Heath
October 2, 2012 at 7:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’ve wondered if this [shopped] image of Joe Biden is an effective Rorchach test ever since I saw it.
dan4
October 2, 2012 at 8:38 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@22: “…filling the role of key preacher,…”
Huh?
dean
October 2, 2012 at 8:46 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Sorry – comment at 19 should end “… election will look like a pebble”
Area Man
October 2, 2012 at 9:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Putting aside the many other layers of stupidity, have they really thought this theory through? Why wouldn’t Obama supporters be just as inclined to stay home if they thought that the election was in the bag? Does no one bother to vote for down-ballot races? Does no one bother to cast their vote just for the sake of having their preference counted? How is it that non-swing states manage to get any turnout? And on top of it all, this dufus is predicting a Romney landslide, which would make the whole exercise not just pointless but would ruin the reputations of the pollsters. So it’s not even internally consistent.
Yeah, I know. You can’t reason someone out of a belief that isn’t based on reason to begin with, and all that…
Area Man
October 2, 2012 at 9:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I don’t doubt this as a theoretical possibility, but is there any empirical evidence that it actually happens? There are all kinds of known factors that bias people’s voting, some with fancy names, but I’ve never heard of anything like this being detected. The fact that the pre-election polls tend to be quite accurate suggests that if it does happen, it’s a very small effect. It could be that there is a bandwagon effect in which people start supporting a clear frontrunner once he’s emerged, but if so, this would be reflected in the polls and would not be a reason to doubt their accuracy just prior to election day.
Dr X
October 2, 2012 at 10:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@Eric:
In case anyone missed that.
fifthdentist
October 3, 2012 at 1:37 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Aratina Cage, I clicked on Hannity tonight for a second for the lulz, and he was talking about that video. I could tell by the wording underneath as they called it a “racially tinged” speech. So even Fox “news” is waffling, because if there was any there there, or they could even spin it as such, their wording would have been much more aggressive than that.
Aratina Cage
October 3, 2012 at 1:58 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@dan4, I meant that he is the keynote speaker, but he’s pretending to be a preacher while doing it. Lots of theobabble mixed in. It must be a religious crowd despite it being a university.
@fifthdentist, it’s so funny that they think there is anything there. I do hope Romney has a “zinger” ready for tomorrow night having to do with this “racially tinged” meme–that ought to go over really well with viewers.
Markita Lynda—damn climate change!
October 3, 2012 at 2:10 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think their big scandale is that Mr. Obama softened his accent a little to sound a little more “down home” and casual. You know, like a Texan droppin’ g’s when he’s on the ranch.
Aratina Cage
October 3, 2012 at 2:39 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@Markita Lynda
If that is what they are getting at–that his style of speech during his address to Hampton University shows his Black roots which ought to scare all the White people to vote for Romney, a thing that can’t be said by them explicitly because it is full-blown racist–then that takes the humor out of it for me and leaves me with a queasy stomach.
Aratina Cage
October 3, 2012 at 3:27 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
This kind of attack is exactly what Romney had distanced himself from earlier this year: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/us/politics/gop-super-pac-weighs-hard-line-attack-on-obama.html?pagewanted=all
Ya think? Romney is running a dogawful campaign, and now he’s been backed into the corner with no way out. If he denounces this racist attack, he loses with the Hannity/Fox News gang. If he does not, he loses with independents averse to racism. I don’t think Mitt is slick enough to get out of this one, is he?
ibbica
October 3, 2012 at 7:39 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Let’s hope the people saying they’ll vote Obama over Romney actually get out to vote, though.
There’s (nearly) always what I would consider poor voter turnout anyway, and if one side’s supporters are *that* sure of winning I’d expect a good number of them to not bother voting themselves. “I know everyone else will do it, so I don’t have to.”
Staying home’s a great way to ensure your vote doesn’t get counted. The closer the counts, the easier it is for fraud to sway the outcome…
eric
October 3, 2012 at 7:57 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Area Man @28:
Hmmm…two minutes of googling and I didn’t turn anything up. Only this, (note: paywall) which is tangentially related and indicates only a small influence of vote day exit polls on overall turnout.
So maybe there’s no real effect like the one I’m describing. Of course, if the GOP (or Dems) believe there is, that would be sufficent to explain their desire to fight the numbers.
Raging Bee
October 3, 2012 at 8:09 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Romney is polling somewhere between +16 and +21 in my state. If the election were close, I’d vote for Obama hands down. But if on election day Romney is still polling at +20, I may well log a protest vote for Gary Johnson.
So you’re planning to “protest” a Republican victory by voting for another Republican? Dumbest “protest vote” strategy EVER.
Raging Bee
October 3, 2012 at 8:13 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
A bit OT, but is anyone else getting the banner ads accusing some unnamed college of portraying Jesus as a Muslim? Once again, some AI is disturbingly spot-on at matching creepy unhinged ads to posts about creepy unhinged right-wing behavior.
Ben P
October 3, 2012 at 8:50 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
No, I’m planning to vote for a third party because I don’t particularly like either of the two primary candidates, and because, provided Romney is +22, it doesn’t make any difference whether Obama gets 38% of the vote in my state or 38% – 1.
dingojack
October 3, 2012 at 10:17 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Ben P – do you have to sign a special registration card and pay a fee to get a 1% block of votes, or do only 100 people live in your state?
Dingo
typecaster
October 3, 2012 at 1:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Huh? Ben P said that it doesn’t matter if Obama gets 38% of the votes minus his 1 vote, not 38% of the votes minus another 1% of the votes.
dingojack
October 3, 2012 at 1:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Typecaster -
Sorry, I didn’t realise that was a concept with which you were unfamiliar. Allow me to explain it to you:
Hope that helps
;) Dingo