Patrick from Popehat points to this old article by Paul Krugman that should be a profound embarrassment to him. In the column, he predicts that the internet is just a passing fad and won’t have much influence over the economy at all. For instance:
* The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law”–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.
* As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.
Oops. The punchline: This appeared in a magazine called Red Herring.