The most recent figures from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report are out and they show that the 20-year decline in rates of serious crime, both against people and property, continues. MSNBC reports:
Violent crime rates in the U.S. are reaching historic lows, according to new FBI data released Monday.
Instances of murder declined overall by 1.9 percent from 2010 figures, while rape, robbery and aggravated assault declined by 4 percent nationwide, according to records from more than 14,000 law-enforcement agencies around the country, FBI spokesman Bill Carter told msnbc.com.The number of property crimes also registered a 0.8-percent drop, motor-vehicle thefts declined by 3.3 percent, and arson was down by 5 percent.
Although the findings, released in the FBI’s Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report, represent a seemingly small decline in crime overall, they aren’t just a blip. Rather, criminologists say, the decline is part of larger downward trend and the result of a series of changes that have contributed to a more peaceful society.
“This is actually a pretty significant drop, which is fascinating because we’d normally expect crime to go up when we’re in an economic downturn,” Gary LaFree, a criminology professor at the University of Maryland, told msnbc.com, adding that the U.S. is experiencing the lowest crime levels since World War II.
According to FBI analysis, the homicide drop would mean that nearly 280 fewer Americans were murdered last year, which would be the lowest homicide death toll since the mid-1950s.
And yet fear of crime remains very high. I’m not the world’s biggest Michael Moore fan, but I thought his best work was done in Bowling for Columbine, where he looked at the steady decline of violent crime and the fact that it hasn’t done anything to reduce our fear being victimized. I think the fault lies with the influence of 24-hour cable news channels. We are bombarded with images of violent crime everywhere, which gives the perception that it’s going up when it’s actually going down. And that fear is easily exploited to keep us ever more afraid of one another and to make us acquiesce to the most draconian and unconstitutional policies in the name of protecting us.
16 comments
1 ping
Skip to comment form ↓
slc1
June 20, 2012 at 12:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Of course, an argument can be made that the reason violent crime has declined is due to the high incarceration rate in the US. The more miscreants that are locked up, the fewer the number of miscreants there are to commit crimes.
The Lorax
June 20, 2012 at 12:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
If all you see is violence, the world is a very violent place.
erichoug
June 20, 2012 at 12:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@SLC1
That’s actually an interesting point. How much does the higher incarceration rate have to do with it. I know a lot of people say it can’t hurt. I am not so entirely sure of that though. Once you’ve been to prison you are more likely to be poor, have trouble getting a job or finding a place to live, be more likely to abuse drugs and alcohol and have fewer resources to support yourself. All of which tends to lead to re-offending. So, how much does prison actually contribute?
Also, what percentage of the people in prison are there for non-violent crimes like posession of a controlled substance?
dingojack
June 20, 2012 at 12:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Violent crime has been decreasing all over the first world, but Ameriaca stll has the highest per capita incarceration rate in the first world. Incrceration doesn’t seem to have a strong correlation with reduced violent crime rates.
Dingo
daved
June 20, 2012 at 12:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@erichoug: exactly. Though we may not need to appeal to anything particularly esoteric here. Much violent crime is committed by younger people. There are now fewer younger people in the population than there were during the maximum years of violent crime. I remember seeing predictions some years ago that violent crime would continue to drop just because there would be fewer likely offenders.
frankniddy
June 20, 2012 at 12:40 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
About all I hear from people in rural areas is about how their communities used to be safe and aren’t anymore. Are people really just paranoid because of 24-hour cable networks? What other factors might be in play?
erichoug
June 20, 2012 at 12:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
So what is it? It certainly isn’t the economy or education. Nor is it better gun control or more religion. So what exactly is causing this?
Trebuchet
June 20, 2012 at 12:47 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Meth, unfortunately, which has become prevalent in smaller communities unlike previous drugs whose users were predominantly urban. And of course the response to the problem is doing nothing to help solve it, or help the users for that matter.
Enkidum
June 20, 2012 at 12:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I don’t know about the differences between urban and rural crime, but the continually increasing proportion of urban dwellers would likely counteract any increase in rural crime, if we’re just looking at an overall average.
d cwilson
June 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’ve seen a number of explanations for the decline in violent crime. One interesting one is how cheap heroin has displaced crack as the street drug of choice in urban communities. The theory is that crack makes you paranoid while heroin makes you sleepy, so people on heroin are less likely to commit violent crimes.
Not sure I buy that one.
Other suggestions I’ve heard include the aging of the boomer generation. Violent crime is a young man’s game, but I don’t really buy that one either as even though our birth rate is down, we still have a very large youth popular.
One thought I had is the prevalence of ATMs and check cards. People carry less cash these days, so muggings and convenience store robberies are less profitable.
Area Man
June 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It’s all about the reduction in lead exposure.
Well, probably not all, but still.
erichoug
June 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@ Area Man
That is awesome!
Jordan Genso
June 20, 2012 at 1:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
erichoug
From my perspective, it seems that gun regulations have been only getting looser*. Does the decrease in crime lend support to the gun-rights advocates’ claims that more guns decrease crime?
This does remind me of the Freakonomics argument about how the decrease in crime in the 90s was most likely caused by the Roe v. Wade decision. All I mean by that is that there could be some random factor we’re unable to identify at the moment but will become more clear in hindsight.
*I don’t know if that is actually true though.
Donovan
June 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I don’t think lower crime rates can be attributed too much to higher rates of incarceration, since violent crimes that take place in prison are still counted. But to answer the question, I would like to see a comparison between differing US regions based on crime rates and incarceration rates.
andrewjohnston
June 20, 2012 at 2:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@Donovan: The FBI doesn’t keep state-by-state records, but their regional records show that crime is highest in the South and lowest (by a significant margin) in New England.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/standard-links/region
I’m not sure about incarceration, but the records on arrests show a simple correlation – high arrest rates correspond to high crime.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl30.xls
wscott
June 20, 2012 at 3:13 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’m just finishing Steven Pinker’s latest book “The Better Angels Of Our Natures,” which is all about the decline of violence throughout human history. He talks a lot about the changes in violent crime rates post WWII. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in the topic – it’s a bit think, but quick reading and fascinating.
Violent Crime Continues to Drop in U.S. | Dispatches from the … · Crime Scene Technician
June 20, 2012 at 4:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
[...] Read More: Violent Crime Continues to Drop in U.S. | Dispatches from the … [...]