Mitt Romney went into Super Tuesday hoping to win the key states and build some momentum that might help him shed Santorum and Gingrich. He didn’t get it. His wins in Massachusetts and Vermont are virtually irrelevant, as was Virginia, since neither of his two main opponents were on the ballot. Only Ohio mattered and that was a virtual tie with Santorum.
Meanwhile, Santorum won Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota and Gingrich got a win in his home state of Georgia. And most of the new few primaries are ones that Santorum might well be able to win. Kansas votes on Saturday, where Santorum should have a strong showing. And next week will see primaries in Alabama, Mississippi and the Missouri caucuses (they already had one round, which Santorum won, but it didn’t count; this one will actually decide the delegates) — all states that Santorum is probably the favorite to win. Illinois and Louisiana later in the month will likely be a split.
Newt Gingrich could help Santorum out a lot if he’d pull out of the race, but that’s not likely. He has no chance of actually winning, but he can certainly hurt Santorum by splitting the conservative religious vote — and the longer he stays in, the more damage he can do. If Santorum had actually won Ohio, that would have been a really big story. But even such a close vote has to keep Mitt very uncomfortable. He was hoping to come out of Tuesday as the inevitable nominee, but the only thing inevitable at this point is a campaign that will drag out through March at the very least, and quite likely longer.
And remember, this is all happening despite Romney’s massive fundraising, spending and organizational advantage, none of which seems to be helping him all that much with Republican voters. No matter what happens from this point on, Romney is looking like a very weak candidate. The real winner last night was clearly President Obama.
54 comments
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ogremk5
March 7, 2012 at 10:52 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I was really stunned by the Ohio results. Romney appeared to have won some earlier states by the simple virtue of buying them. Spending tens of millions to get those delegates.
But in Ohio, a 12:1 spending ratio just got Romney a tie with Santorum. Wow, it’s really true… as bug house nuts as Santorum is, no one likes Romney.
Reginald Selkirk
March 7, 2012 at 10:58 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I find it amazing that someone as utterly insane as Santorum is getting votes. I have been viewing the economic views from Europe with dismay, as it may dampen the possibilities of relocating if the general election goes wrong.
slc1
March 7, 2012 at 11:04 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Re Reginald Selkirk @ #2
There’s always Canada (as bad as Harper is, he appears sane compared to Santorum), Australia, and New Zealand.
Who Knows?
March 7, 2012 at 11:04 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I cannot express how disturbing it is to me that someone like Rick Santorum is doing so well in a race for the Presidency of the United States. I’m really losing confidence in the human race.
keithb
March 7, 2012 at 11:05 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Heck, look at Virginia. Ron Paul got 27% of the vote. Clearly this is still an “Anybody but Romney” contest.
Ray Ingles
March 7, 2012 at 11:09 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Sometimes I think a Santorum candidacy would be a good thing. As the Onion puts it, “Voters [are] Slowly Realizing Santorum Believes Every Deranged Word That Comes Out Of His Mouth”. Something really, really terrible would have to happen to make people vote against Obama in the fall. (I’m pretty sure relatively few people would actually vote for Santorum.)
But terrible things can happen. Romney’d be worse than Obama in several ways, but he’d be better than Santorum. It’s basically avoiding the worst-case scenario.
Thankfully, the best available alternative seems to be happening – Romney will be the candidate, but the GOP will be so horribly divided that they won’t be able to motivate enough people to actually vote for him.
Synfandel
March 7, 2012 at 11:11 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Come to Canada, Reginald. United Empire Loyalists, freedom train ex-slaves, Vietnam War draft dodgers, gay and lesbian couples wanting to marry… we take them all. Eventually, all the best and brightest of the U.S. will be living north of the border and the rest will live under Santorum’s theocracy.
aaronbaker
March 7, 2012 at 11:12 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Romney is the inevitable nominee. He may be damaged goods by the time he gets the nomination, but he will get it. Scott Lemieux at Lawyers Guns & Money (lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com) has been very good & completely convincing on just this issue; I recommend a look at the half-dozen or so posts he’s done on Romney’s inevitability.
slc1
March 7, 2012 at 11:12 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Re keithb @ #5
Actually, Paul got 41% of the vote in Virginia.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-pauls-virginia-surprise/2012/03/06/gIQAXmBlvR_blog.html
slc1
March 7, 2012 at 11:14 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
By the way, Mr. Brayton should have some fun with this result from Ohio. Joe the (not) plumber won the Rethuglican nomination for Congress in the 9th Congressional district.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/joe-plumber-snags-gop-nod-ohio-congressional-election/story?id=15867984#.T1eJOszxc7g
MyPetSlug
March 7, 2012 at 11:14 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I keep wondering why Gingrich is staying in though. He has to realize he has absolutely no shot at this point, right? Plus, if he bows out, he can play the “For the good of the conservative movement” card, feign selflessness, and work behind the scenes for the VP slot. You would think that’s a better plan than sinking Santorum’s chances while there’s still time only to drop out later and then getting nothing.
Synfandel
March 7, 2012 at 11:17 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Romney doesn’t have enough electoral votes to clinch the nomination yet and the next several caucuses are in heavily evangelical states. If Santorum picks up the next three or four states, he may appear to be gaining momentum and that influences votes—though I’ve never understood why it does.
Synfandel
March 7, 2012 at 11:21 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Your political calculus is sound, but unfortunately, Gingrich is smart like a half-brick. I’ve little doubt that he has convinced himself that his support will rally.
Chiroptera
March 7, 2012 at 11:21 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
What are the odds of a “brokered convention,” where the powers that be will pick someone sane enough and charismatic enough to actually beat Obama?
Michael Heath
March 7, 2012 at 11:22 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
In terms of delegates, here’s the breakdown between Mitt Romney and #2, Rick Santorum [pun initially inadvertent but absolutely intentional]:
Prior to Super Tuesday Mitt Romney led Rick Santorum 273 to 108.
Now Romney has 415 to Santorum’s 176.
1144 is needed to win the nomination.
Newt Gingrich has 105 delegates and Ron Paul has 47 delegates.
Cite: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/
keithb
March 7, 2012 at 11:23 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
slc1:
Oops, I got my numbers from the 538 blog.
KG
March 7, 2012 at 11:23 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mwah-ha-ha-ha-haaaaah.
All is going acording to plan. Our assets inside the Republican Party, codenames “My Frothy”, “Lunartick” and “Batshit”, are all following instructions. Once Obama is re-elected, we announce the timetable for introducing Shariah, and the construction of the White house minaret begins…
KG
March 7, 2012 at 11:29 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’m no expert on American politics, nor even an American, but I’d say close to zero. I know the party conventions used to be places where a new or candidate could emerge if no-one had a clear majority, but that was surely before the primary season took on its current form and newsworthiness. How would they live down the complete failure of this extensive and expensive process to produce a credible candidate?
abb3w
March 7, 2012 at 11:29 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It’s a real pity that Ron Paul didn’t have a little more Virginia Surprise up his sleeve. It could have made the GOP convention oh-so-much more interesting. The 2:3 result is a much better showing than the 1:3 projected, but still a far cry from a 3.0001:3 showing.
Ed Brayton
March 7, 2012 at 11:34 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
MyPetSlug wrote:
Newt is not running to win; Newt is running because of his massive ego and equally massive sense of grievance. And I think he genuinely hates Romney.
Bronze Dog
March 7, 2012 at 11:35 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Living in interesting times is getting wearying. I’m all for the Republican party descending into chaos, but I think I need some kind of strong confirmation that it’s going to be an ineffectual sort of chaos.
Raging Bee
March 7, 2012 at 11:38 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
aaron: If Mutt Romney looks damaged enough by, say, May, look for a brokered PoG convention — or at least a very loud movement demanding same — so someone more credible can ride in on a white horse and lead them to salvation. I’m still calling it for Jeb Bush, but Huckabee and Christie are still good possibilities. (This could be why Newt is still in: to help deny Romney his majority, and thus become a power-broker in a brokered convention.)
Also, Ron Paul’s strong showing in VA is a victory for both him and the loony right — though not for libertarians. As our governor and Lt. governor prove, VA Republicans are closer to the Taliban than to anything resembling actual libertarianism.
raven
March 7, 2012 at 11:43 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
There was a marked gender disparity in voting patterns. Women voted more for Romney by a lot, men were evenly split between Romney and Santorum.
Not seeing why any women voted for Santorum. Guy is a warped personality straight out of the Dark Ages.
Synfandel
March 7, 2012 at 11:43 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
My fantasy outcome for the Republican primary circus is:
1. President Obama stays in the White House and actually implements some progressive policies for a change.
2. The Ron Paul joins the Libertarian Party and takes his faction with him.
3. The social/evangelical wing, the fiscally conservative wing, and the I-hate-government Tea Party wing splinter the Republican Party into three smaller parties, none of which can hope to win the House, the Senate, or the Oval Office.
joes
March 7, 2012 at 11:44 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
There’s a fascinating graphic on the NY Times front page at the moment of the levels of support Romney and Santorum got from different demographic groups in the states that voted yesterday. Catholics much preferred Romney over Santorum in every state. Of all the categories Santorum led Romney only on abortion and “strong morals”.
daved
March 7, 2012 at 11:45 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Oh, people like to vote for the winner. Success tends to feed success. Nothing sinister about it, just human psychology.
raven
March 7, 2012 at 11:49 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yeah, me too.
The fact that Santorum is doing so well despite being a Dark Ages Pope wannabe indicates something drastically wrong with the USA.
In times past, the men in white coats would have simply tossed a net over him and carted him off to the loony bin.
If he or one of the other christofascist toads get elected President, the USA is over with. I’m either going to flee the country or turn off my news feed and work on my cats, hobbies, and drink a lot of white wine.
raven
March 7, 2012 at 11:53 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’m reevaluating my decision to not flee the USA. It’s not so easy when your are a rooted Boomer.
I might not be the only one. A coworker at lunch the other day, out of nowhere, starting asking me what I knew about emigration. Two colleagues have already done that.
Huh, what!!! Why are you asking that?
She launches into a tirade about Rick Santorum who seems to have scared her half to death.
This is coming from someone who never showed much interest in politics and get this. She is nominally a Catholic.
Chiroptera
March 7, 2012 at 11:54 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
raven, #27:
Heh. Maybe the US is trying to beat out North Korea for the Guiness’ Book of World Records for most deranged leader?
John Hinkle
March 7, 2012 at 12:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
slc1 says:
Oh my fucking god, I had to pick my jaw up from the keyboard. Sorry for the OT, but is there no end to this madness?
Oh, I caught a headline on yahoo that Palin voted for Gingrich in Alaska (endorsement?), and she’ll be at the convention in case she’s pressed to run. Said she of Gingrich
So being an underdog and a cantankerous asshole are what she admires in him. Wonderful.
Reginald Selkirk
March 7, 2012 at 12:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
What Obama would do in a second term is an interesting question to contemplate. Second term presidents tend to give more consideration to their “place in history” and such. He is an intelligent and talented politician.
I don’t know why they would want him. As reported on this blog and elsewhere, Paul does not stand for liberty, he simply an anti-federalist who wants oppression to occur at the state and local level.
abb3w
March 7, 2012 at 12:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
@20, Ed Brayton:
I think it’s only the first two (and a willing PAC donor) that keep him in the race. If he was mainly driven by hate for Romney, he’d realize that Santorum was the best chance for Anyone-But-Romney, realize that he wasn’t going to take back the lead from Santorum, and throw his weight behind the Santorum campaign.
My guess is he’s staying in at least until the end of March so he can take Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana (for a sweep of the Derp South). I’m not sure what would push him out after that.
@25, joes:
This is likely because more than half of contemporary “Catholics” are “not very strong” in their religiosity. Meaning if the pope says that contraception is bad, they say “Look! A good and holy man just said an incredibly stupid thing!” and get back to shagging like minks.
There’s also a lot of Catholics who feel that Kennedy’s speech on religion is one of the high points of US history. Santorum effluviating on Church/State separation does not making them even remotely happy; they will hold their nose and vote for the Mormon.
The Lorax
March 7, 2012 at 12:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
And you know, even if Romney does win, he’s going to be campaigning against Obama. Obama is a VERY strong campaigner; charismatic, charming, eloquent. He would mop the floor with Gingrich in every way, he would focus on moderate fiscal policy whilst Santorum is frothing about religious and social issues, and I think he’s just too damn charming to fear anything from Romney.
All in all, it’s looking very bad for the GOP. And we haven’t even gotten to the general election! Obama doesn’t even have his game face on yet!
I also wonder if this is going to affect Congress; will we see more Democrats being elected due to the vibe of weirdness being given off by the GOP primaries? Will people begin to associate Santorum’s santorum with the ideals of the average conservative? Will the GOP become a religious party in the eyes of the masses?
The game isn’t over yet, and the GOP can still make a dramatic comeback… but that’s only because any comeback they make at this point would be dramatic, or it wouldn’t be a comeback at all.
pelamun
March 7, 2012 at 12:40 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think I heard on TRMS that there was an agreement between Gingrich and Romney for Gingrich to stay in the race as long as possible? Or at least Sheldon Adelson was talking to Romney’s camp about that? Adelson seems to dislike Santorum…
I was really surprised though, about Romney’s dismal results. 59% in Virginia even though the only other candidate on the ballot was Ron Paul? Pleaaase..
Michael Heath
March 7, 2012 at 12:57 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I followed Andrew Sullivan’s live-blog last evening and watched part of Newt Gingrich’s speech in Georgia last evening. Mr. Gingrich made the case the best reason to nominate him, I kid you not, was that he could out-debate Barack Obama. In this part of his speech, I didn’t watch the whole speech but he did change subjects so my context is accurate, his sole argument that he should be chosen was this ability, I don’t recall him ever mentioning in this context his being capable of actually beating Barack Obama.
Mr. Gingrich also launched into a dissection of some of the president’s recent statements where he pointed out the supposed fallacies of these arguments. Of course there were no fallacies by the president, but instead preview of what immediately Gingrich immediately followed with himself. His responses to the president’s statements was a display of projection and fallacies at a volume I’d never encountered in my life from any presidential candidate this far into a campaign season (Bachmann still beats Gingrich in the incoherence department). As if he was looking to set a record no one can touch, analogous to Wilt Chamberlain scoring 100 points in one game.
Mr. Sullivan and or some of those he cited last evening rightly pointed out how Gingrich’s speech was all about him, that it was completely devoid of the type of pandering most politicians rely on to get their audience to believe they understand and empathize with them.
stace
March 7, 2012 at 1:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Plus, once global warming really kicks in, the place will warm up considerably. Not so great for the polar bears, but super for emigres from the south.
Who Knows?
March 7, 2012 at 1:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Raging Bee
March 7, 2012 at 2:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Synfandel: the reactionary rich and authoritarians who guide and finance all of the right-wing factions you mention — including Ron Paul and his fellow Randroids — won’t let your steps #2 and #3 happen. Rich reactionaries and religious reactionaries are natural allies, and probably always will be.
pelamun
March 7, 2012 at 2:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Unfortunately, the state police (there is no muncipial police in Germany) enforce the federal immigration laws mercilessly. Becomes a problem in human trafficking cases where the authorities are compelled to deport the witnesses after they have testified in court.
Even marrying a German citizen doesn’t help unless you’re from a privileged nation such as the US, Canada, Japan or Israel (+2-3 more). Because if you’re not you’d need to pass a German test before you’re even issued a visa (it might make more sense to learn the language in-country, but that’s just me).
There’s one solution though to get a residence permit immediately: become a parent of a German citizen. Then they won’t care about your education, language skills or otherwise…
Raging Bee
March 7, 2012 at 2:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Not having an education that would make me an attractive candidate for immigration…
Dude, just get a spray-on tan, learn some Spanish, and swim over from Mexico, you’ll blend right in!
Or, if you don’t want to deal with being both welcome and unwelcome at the same time, 24/7, just fly into Miami with an anti-gummint sob-story (or better yet, show up on a raft), and say you’re from Cuba. You’ll have to pretend to be a Republican, but hey, the ballots are secret…
D. C. Sessions
March 7, 2012 at 2:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
That depends a lot on whether they’re put on the spot regarding the national Party platform and their own records. I wouldn’t count on most Democrats doing that, and as for the Press? Don’t make me laugh.
d cwilson
March 7, 2012 at 2:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think it’s the latter. Ed is right. Newt’s dislike for Romney seems deeply personal, so I doubt he’d make a deal to help Romney. On the other hand, Adelson has made it clear he want’s anyone but Santorum to get the nomination. Understandable, since he’s made most of his money through gambling.
If Newt stays in, it’ll be because he has something to gain for himself. If he can make a strong enough showing to create the illusion that he’s a “credible candidate”, it will mean more speaking fees, more book and DVD sales, and probably a nice shiny new contract with Fox for him in 2013.
typecaster
March 7, 2012 at 3:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Of course, it isn’t a victory for Paul at all. Since he was the only not-Romney on the ballot, he got all of the votes that would otherwise have been split between three candidates. All members of the loony right themselves, of course, but the split wouldn’t have been anyone’s victory.
My fervent wish is for the old moderate Republicans who’ve been run out of their party by the whackaloons start a new, not-actually-insane conservative party, which would also appeal to the blue-dog Democrats. The Dems could then go back to being a center-left party (could, no guarantee that they would), the NAICs would be more like the Republicans of 45 years ago, and the Republicans who stuck would become the new John Birch Society, made up of the diehard whackjobs only. Politics today makes me look back longingly for Presidents like Richard Nixon, for Ghu’s sake. And I danced in the streets when he resigned.
True story.
Chiroptera
March 7, 2012 at 3:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
typecaster, #43: …the old moderate Republicans….
I remember the old days, when these individuals were known as “conservatives.”
slc1
March 7, 2012 at 4:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Re typecaster
It should be recalled that the socialist/fascist EPA was initiated in the Nixon administration. End snark.
Michael Heath
March 7, 2012 at 4:57 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
d cwilson writes:
I can’t figure out how Santorum winning the GOP nomination hurts Sheldon Adelson’s gambling interests. Santorum will be forced to avoid most morality topics in the general where the Christianists aren’t even that energetically opposed to gambling on a national level (they can be on the local level). The odds of a Santorum nomination and win are also remote.
What is motivating Mr. Adelson is interesting. The most parsimonious explanation I can calculate is that Adelson’s an authentic delusional ideologue and committed Zionist who believes he can own the ear of the next president if it’s Romney instead of Santorum or Obama, in a manner James Dobson did with George W. Bush’s ass. Perhaps instead Adelson’s merely looking to boost his name recognition in a way that provides him with some leverage and power in his personal dealings.
dingojack
March 7, 2012 at 5:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Michael Heath – Gambling then odds? Nice.
“[Adelson] believes he can own the ear of the next president … in a manner James Dobson did with George W. Bush’s ass”.
Now there’s a mental image I didn’t need: Adelson stooped over trying to communicate with Mittens by whispering up his rectum. *shudder*.
;) Dingo
Alethea H. Claw
March 7, 2012 at 5:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Every time someone mentions “Mittens”, I can’t help but think of this (NSFW) “art”. I wonder if sharing will help reduce the amount of brain bleach I need? Wait, I shall invest in the brain bleach industry! Rich, I’ll be rich! MWAAHAHAhahaha!
dingojack
March 7, 2012 at 5:30 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Speaking of ddds:
Intrade Update
2012 Presidential Election
Winner by Party
Democratic: 60.08%
Republican: 39.92%
Head to head matchup
Obama vs Romney: 63.435% vs. 36.565%
Republican Nominee
Romney: ca. 29 to 27
Gingrich: ca. 48 to 1
Santorum: ca. 141 to 5
Paul: ca. 664 to 9
Republican nominated and winning the election
Romney: ca 3 to 1
Santorum: ca. 1241 to 1
Gingrich: ca. 13021 to 1
Paul: ca. 6418 to 1
Dingo
—–
SOURCE.
d cwilson
March 7, 2012 at 6:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Do you think Santorum is even capable of avoiding morality topics? You’d have to physically gag him to get him to shut up about that.
I agree the chances of him winning is pretty remote, but Adelson clearly does not like the idea of Santorum even getting close to winning the nomination.
slc1
March 7, 2012 at 6:38 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Re KG @ #18
Although a brokered convention is unlikely, it is not totally impossible. However, if Romney continues to stagger, his poll numbers against Obama continue to deteriorate, and he ends up 2 or 3 hundred delegates short of a majority, the powers that be in the Rethuglican Party in the persons of the uncommitted delegates, might decide to throw him under the bus and put forward a new candidate (e.g. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels) who hasn’t been dirtied up in the primaries. This would not necessarily be to win the election but to prevent an Obama landslide, with concomitant coattails, that might oust numerous Rethuglican candidates lower down on the ballot (e.g. Congressmen, Senators, Governors, state legislators, etc.).
As things now stand, the possibility of an Obama landslide cannot be discounted, particularly if the economic recovery picks up some steam, unemployment falls below 8%, and the Rethuglicans continue to smear each other.
Childermass
March 8, 2012 at 12:08 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I agree about the the ego trip thing. And it appears that he has personal animosity towards Mitt. But clearly the best thing he could have done to hurt Mitt would have been to endorse Santorum. And unless he is a complete idiot he should know that. [Must resist obvious cynical comment.]
democommie
March 8, 2012 at 8:41 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Given that the GOP is becoming the Baskin-Robbins of clowndidacy, might we expect a “Raver of the Month” anytime soon?
typecaster
March 8, 2012 at 11:01 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
*Chuckle*. Oh, I remember that. I also had to explain to a very conservative friend that Obama is governing to the right of Nixon. He objected “Proposing a government health plan? I don’t THINK so!” When I pulled up the old news stories of Nixon doing exactly that, his head exploded.
I am frequently unkind.